By Will Marshall, President and Founder of PPI
Six months after invading Ukraine, not much has gone right for Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. But it’s dangerous for despots to admit defeat, so he’s doubling down on death and destruction in hopes of salvaging something he can call a win.
Having failed to topple Ukraine’s government or overwhelm its highly motivated defense forces on the ground, Putin is settling into a grinding war of attrition, featuring World War II-style leveling of cities and terror attacks on civilians.
His aim is to seize more land along Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders that adjoins territories already contested by pro-Russian separatists following Putin’s 2014 incursion. U.S. officials expect Moscow to declare its intent to “annex” the conquered terrain, just as it did with Crimea.
In this way, Putin would have something to show Russians for the horrendous butcher’s bill he’s running up. CIA director Bill Burns last week estimated that 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far and as many as 45,000 have been wounded.
Since Ukraine is fiercely resisting its piecemeal dismemberment and occupation by Russia, the fighting could continue indefinitely. Putin shows no interest in negotiating an end to the war, either because he still believes he can break Ukraine, or, more likely, because he thinks a military stalemate works in his favor.
This calculation rests on unflattering assessments of the West’s strategic stamina. As long as the NATO countries keep supplying Kiev with weapons and financial support and enforcing suffocating sanctions on Russia’s economy, Ukraine probably can hold out against its bigger and heavily armed neighbor.
Read the full piece in The Hill.
