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New PPI Report Warns that the U.S. Rocket Launch Market is Heading Toward a Monopoly

  • August 1, 2025
  • Mary Guenther

WASHINGTON — As demand for space launches surges — from satellite constellations to national security payloads — the U.S. launch market is becoming dangerously concentrated. According to Payload, in 2024, SpaceX accounted for more than 95% of U.S. launches. That includes roughly two-thirds of NASA’s orbital missions and a hefty percentage of national security missions.

Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new report warning that the growing dominance of a single provider threatens national security, suppresses innovation, inflates costs, and jeopardizes long-term access to space. Authored by Mary Guenther, PPI’s Head of Space Policy, “Reigniting Rocket Competition: The Case for Refocusing on Domestic Competition in the Launch Sector” finds that without deliberate action to foster competition, U.S. policy aimed at ensuring a resilient and innovative launch market could be undone.

“Competition in the space launch market requires intentionality and the U.S. Government appears to have taken its eye off the prize in this arena,” said Guenther. “A vibrant and competitive launch ecosystem is essential to maintaining America’s leadership in space, securing fair prices for taxpayers, and ensuring we can get critical payloads into orbit whenever the nation needs them.”

The report urges federal policymakers to:

  • Overhaul acquisition strategies to cap single-vendor dominance and strengthen industrial base resilience.
  • Reject funding cuts for space agencies that are driving a healthy percentage of growth in the space sector.
  • Modernize outdated launch regulations and boost staffing to speed licensing.
  • Invest in launch infrastructure to accommodate more providers and higher launch rates.
Guenther emphasized that demand for launches has never been higher, driven by defense, commercial, and scientific missions. Yet outdated rules, infrastructure bottlenecks, and concentrated government contracting risk locking in a single dominant player, stifling innovation, and raising costs. And this is all at risk if funding cuts at NASA, the DoD, and the Office of Space Commerce proposed by President Trump for FY26 and beyond are implemented.

“The U.S. government has the leverage and responsibility to keep the launch market competitive,” said Guenther. “If we make the right policy choices now, we can secure a space economy that is innovative, resilient, and open for business.”

Read and download the report here.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us @PPI.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

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