Launch underpins anything being done in space, from spy satellites and NASA science spacecraft to the GPS satellites that help civilians and the military navigate. Given this substantial national interest in secure access to space, the U.S. government has worked for decades to develop the domestic rocket launch industry and ensure it is sufficiently robust to serve the nation.
The U.S. government is a major customer for orbital launch and accordingly has substantial sway over the market — experts have estimated that Department of Defense (DoD) launch purchases alone will be 30-50% of the market for new rockets. As a result, new companies are unlikely to succeed if they can’t break into government contracting in a meaningful way.
U.S. government programs fostering this market have had their fair share of hiccups and shifting goals over the years. At various times, the government has expressed a strong preference for a single launch provider. At others, it sought diversity within the launch market for the exact same reasons: increasing reliability and reducing launch costs.
There is clear evidence that competition serves the nation well so long as there is sufficient demand to sustain multiple launch providers through a combination of government and commercial launches. Simply put, the government cannot sustain multiple launch providers through government business alone. Luckily, demand for launches has never been higher than today–and it’s poised to continue growing so long as the Trump administration’s ill-advised cuts to space agencies and the office dedicated to promoting space at home and abroad are avoided.
Beyond those disastrous proposed cuts, the government has not offered enough support for continued competition and dissimilar redundancy in the launch market. Without a change of course, the U.S. government could wind up supporting the emergence of a monopoly company — the opposite outcome of stated policy. Federal agencies that buy launches — the DoD and NASA — need to act quickly in order to continue harnessing the benefits of competition in launch, including favorable pricing, assured access to space, and continued innovation.
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