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Tracking a Tariff

  • August 11, 2026
  • Beck Holtzman

On the coast of Connecticut sits the port city of New Haven, sustaining 366 acres of waterfront land regularly engaged in international trade. President Trump’s tariffs spell devastating consequences for the port economy and the many New Haven businesses dependent on it. Mr. Trump’s trade policy has contributed to rising costs, a slowing job market, and supply-chain issues in the town  along with communities all across the country. This paper will examine how tariffs are implemented, where they take effect, and who pays the price at the local level. 

As of summer 2026, though the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs have been repealed by the courts and refunds by the CBP are reimbursing importers (without helping consumers), U.S. tariff rates remain far above normal. Nearly all countries have seen baseline rates of 10%, with higher tariff rates on key trading partners. Of the administration’s three remaining tariff authorities, his first invoked section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which expired by statute on July 24, 2026. His remaining authorities, sections 232 and 301 of the Trade Act, persist, though the newest “301” tariffs are already facing legal challenges. The 232 decrees impose tariffs on steel at 50%, aluminum 50%, copper 50%, automobiles 25% (EU-origin capped at 15% under a new trade deal), semiconductors 25%, lumber 10%; those under “Section 301” cover most remaining U.S. imports, at 12.5% duty on goods from 46 countries and 10% on another 14, plus additional penalties on Chinese, India, Brazilian, and Canadian goods. These tariffs will tax New Haven residents and average Americans alike.

A look at New Haven:

With an estimated population of ~140,000, New Haven is primarily a college town for Yale University, which employs 7,000 residents. But the city also functions as one of Connecticut’s three deepwater ports (Bridgeport, New London, and New Haven). Of the three, the Port of New Haven sees the most domestic and international commodity traffic in the state. The port consists of seven privately owned terminals, six of which are exclusively used for petroleum products. At 35ft of depth, the port can accommodate ships weighing between 20,000 and 40,000 deadweight tons. The maritime sector creates thousands of jobs in the New Haven metropolitan area, with hundreds of workers at the Terminals in longshore jobs and similar work, and many more indirectly through restaurants, repair shops, and other small enterprises reliant on port business. Additionally, because the port holds a Foreign Trade Zone designation, the local community is susceptible to the current administration’s trade policy. 

The Port of New Haven hosts about 200 vessel calls a year — bulk carriers, general cargo vessels, oil tankers – with petroleum imports comprising 81% of all traffic at approximately $1.75 billion a year. These imports arrive as they usually do, with minimal tariffs – hoping to curb rising energy prices across the country, Mr. Trump exempted petroleum-related products from his tariffs. The port’s dry goods importers, bringing in over 600,000 tons in cargo annually  that contribute to roughly $250 million across CT ports (largely industrial metals, wood, and consumer products), still incur duties. So the port’s customers are paying more for their metals and wood, and they aren’t alone. 

Tariffs on dry-bulk goods and consumer imports hardly go unnoticed. Most obviously, more tariffs over time mean less cargo — thus, less business for the port and weakened job opportunities — and also more costs. On Grand Avenue, Vinnie’s Italia Importing owner Mike DiVirgilio has to pay an additional 15% on Italian pasta, sausage, wine, and sauce. He’s already raised prices on pasta from Rummo, Barilla, La Molisana, and Garofalo, passing costs to roughly 50 Southern Connecticut restaurant clients, including Adriana’s, Goodfellas, and Consiglio’s, and has observed customers cutting back on meat purchases as prices climb. In Ninth Square, Elm City Games raised the price of the German-made board game Horrified — also covered by the 15% tariff — from $20 to $28, an increase New Haven Rep. Rosa DeLauro cited alongside a LendingTree estimate that tariffs cost shoppers $132 more during the prior holiday season. In North Haven, the 10% tariffs on Canadian lumber and the 50% rates on steel and aluminum added an average of $10,900 to the price of a new home, according to T&M Homes president Greg Ugalde. A local realtor, meanwhile, said tariffs — spiking above 150% on Chinese consumer goods last year, and at 20% for Vietnamese or Malaysian substitutes — have doubled or tripled many appliance costs.

These individual price hikes sit inside a much larger cost shock moving through New Haven’s trade infrastructure, along with those of Connecticut and the rest of the country. Tariffs are a tax collected at the port of entry (e.g., seaport, airport, border crossing), usually as a percentage of cargo value. The importer of record—typically a U.S. company—pays Customs and Border Protection (CBP) directly. This payment is due within ten days of cargo being released on all shipments of $2,500 or more. Additionally, CBP requires a customs bond to ensure payment in case the importer defaults on their payment. The bond is sourced by a third-party surety company, which collects a premium annually. Although the bond is a small percentage of the duty owed, insurance payments create an additional worry for importers. Tariffs have increased these costs by as much as 200% to 500% and up to $450 million for large importers. This table is a helpful example of how tariffs not only raise costs but add financial risk:

 

Good  Tariff Rate   Annual Goods Value   Annual Tariff   Bond (10%)   Premium (~1% of bond)   Premium as % of Goods Value 
Steel (Section 232)   50%   $12M   $6M   $600,000   ~$6,000   ~0.05%
Italian pasta (EU tariff)   15%   $12M   $1.8M   $180,000   ~$1,800   ~0.015%

 

Businesses relying on foreign imports have now faced several price hikes and are offered limited options. Many U.S. retailers receive invoices with explicit “duty recovery” line items from distributors, making the cost of Mr. Trump’s tariffs impossible to go unnoticed by sellers. Eventually, companies can no longer circumvent the costs, and they raise their prices. Over nearly 10 months, the time it took for the Supreme Court to strike down the Trump administration’s first of four distinct tariff efforts, consumers had already begun to bear the brunt of the cost. A study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that 96% of all tariff costs are passed through to U.S. buyers. That is what shoppers and restaurant-goers on Grand Avenue are seeing. 

The link between Mr. Trump’s trade regime and the sharp rise in New Haven’s costs is clear. After the signing ceremony at the Rose Garden, the handing off of the physical copy, and the tradition of giving out the signing pens as souvenirs, Mr. Trump’s Executive Order 14257 — the largest of the administration’s dozens of tariff decrees, termed  “Liberation Day” —  officially took effect on April 2, 2025. While the Supreme Court struck it down roughly a year later, the administration has tried to supplant it with similar levies, and the tariffs’ effects had already proliferated. 

Overall, Connecticut’s cost of imported goods rose by at least $3.16 billion in the tariffs’ first year, a 14% increase over 2024. Statewide, manufacturers stomached roughly $600 million in exposure from Mr. Trump’s Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports alone, costs that flow directly through Gateway Terminal, the Port of New Haven’s only dry-bulk facility. Nationally, ferrous scrap exports — Connecticut’s largest single export commodity by weight, with much of it moving through New Haven — are on pace to fall 15% in 2025 to their lowest levels annually since 2004, even as domestic scrap prices run 15 to 20 percent above global rates. Storefronts and port terminals tell two different sides of the same story: New Haven has become just one of many municipalities across the country that have bled profusely due to a concerted effort by the Trump administration to sidestep the legislative process and abuse executive authority. 

The decisions to raise costs, whether by the importer, distributor, or retailer, all operate as part of an unforgiving apparatus that distributes blame and obfuscates the simple economics of a tariff — a tax on foreign goods. 

How do residents feel about all this? A UNH poll taken after Mr. Trump’s initial round of tariffs found that almost two-thirds of Connecticut residents believed tariffs would harm the economy, and a plurality believed they would be personally worse off in a year. Mr. Trump’s tariffs have and will continue to see diminishing popularity as prices rise, and more Americans will begin to point blame. New Haven residents are not unusual; hundreds of municipalities face rising costs due to unrelenting tariffs. GDP growth is expected to slow, and the posited benefits have yet to be seen at the scale promised by the Trump administration. New Haven’s experience is not the exception, but rather the expected result of the Trump administration’s tariff hikes.  

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