Five More Problems With the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

As Republicans worked their way through the budget reconciliation process this year, PPI analyzed the most harmful features of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) they eventually passed: increasing budget deficits by upwards of $4 trillion over the coming decade, regressively redistributing resources from the poorest Americans to the wealthiest, and undermining macroeconomic stability. But while these significant flaws have been widely reported, OBBBA is also littered with special interest giveaways and other problems that have received relatively less coverage. Here are five additional ways in which Trump’s signature legislative achievement is even worse than you may have realized:

1. Encourages Inaction on Reducing SNAP Error Rates

Before the bill’s passage, the federal government would pay for nearly all SNAP benefits. But under OBBBA, states will now have to pay an escalating share of SNAP costs, depending on how high their error rate is. This plan was a major sticking point for Senator Lisa Murkowski, whose vote they needed to pass the bill. Her home state of Alaska has the highest error rate in the nation, at 25%. To secure her support, Republican leaders tried to just exempt her state entirely from the cost-sharing requirements. However, after the parliamentarian ruled that this did not comply with the rules of reconciliation, Republicans decided upon a different strategy. In their new plan, any state that in 2025 or 2026 has an error rate above 13.3% would be exempt for up to two years from the requirement after its 2028 implementation.

In the short term, this provision does nothing to incentivize states to improve their SNAP error rates and, in fact, creates a perverse incentive to increase them. There are already nine states (plus the District of Columbia) above the 13.5% threshold, with another 11 only a few percentage points away. Under the new requirement, states already above the threshold have little reason to do anything to lower their error rates in the near term, while those on the margin might be incentivized to push themselves over the threshold to delay the requirement.

Even when the requirement is finally in place for every state, the law’s other changes to SNAP will hamper efforts to effectively reduce payment error rates. For example, OBBBA changes the federal government’s share of administrative costs to 25% — down from 50% under prior law — meaning that states now have to shoulder increased administrative costs associated with tracking payments, at the same time that they are being told to reduce them.

2. Expands Federal Aid for Wealthy Farmers 

While the law makes large cuts to the nutrition safety net for low-income Americans, it expands the agricultural subsidies for wealthy farmers. Federal farm subsidies were already extremely regressive before the passage of this bill, with many programs’ benefits flowing mostly to the largest and wealthiest farms, which have little risk of financial failure. For example, roughly 77% of the total subsidies in the Federal Crop Insurance Program (the largest federal program) go to the top 20% of farms by crop sales.

Republicans made these subsidies even more regressive. OBBBA further increases premium support for Crop Insurance by 3-5%, offering farmers both increasingly generous premium subsidies and coverage. The law also substantially expands Price Loss Coverage, a program that makes payments to farmers when the market price of a covered crop goes below a government “reference price,” increasing reference prices for various crops between 10-20% and increasing the likelihood that farmers receive a payout. Finally, the law increases the cap on maximum payouts farmers can collect from various agricultural programs from its previous $125,000 to $155,000. At the same time, Republicans defeated a bipartisan proposal that would have meant-tested benefits and ensured that more support went to struggling farmers. In sum, the bill’s many agricultural program expansions added nearly $66 billion to the bill’s cost without making any attempt at fundamental reform.

3. Turns Back the Clock on American Energy

To offset a small portion of its new spending, OBBBA repeals the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) green energy credits. But in an effort to retain support from battleground Republicans worried about ongoing projects in their state or district, the law nominally retains some of the credits for an additional few years. However, under the law’s new rules on “prohibited foreign entities,” these credits could become functionally impossible to claim, even if they remain on the books. Prohibited foreign entity rules are intended to prevent firms in nations such as China, Iran or North Korea from participating in critical supply chains or benefitting from government subsidies. While these rules have existed since the passage of the IRA, OBBBA made them far more onerous.

A company seeking to claim the credits will now be required to verify a far more expansive set of contracted firms, suppliers, and debt holders than ever before to ensure that they are not owned or operated even in part by a prohibited foreign entity. For companies that operate with long and complex supply systems, the costs of doing so could prove prohibitive at best. In addition, the law’s many vague definitions leave substantial leeway for the administration to write the rules in ways that are even more restrictive — something they explicitly promised to do at passage and have already begun to implement.

While hobbling clean energy incentives, OBBBA supercharges subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuel producers. The bill opens up more federal land for oil and gas drilling, while decreasing the royalties that fossil fuel companies must pay to do so. Oil and gas companies received a new break, allowing them to exempt drilling costs from their income, which makes them practically exempt from the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax. Coal producers also received a new tax break to make metallurgical coal, which is used in the production of steel, despite the fact that it is not used in U.S. steelmaking and is typically exported overseas.

These policies will make energy both less clean and more expensive for American households. According to one analysis of the law, its energy provisions alone will increase costs for the typical American household by up to $192 while cutting the deployment of clean energy in half over the next 10 years.

4. Funds Private Schools Using Taxpayer Dollars

 The bill makes permanent and creates new tax benefits that will almost exclusively benefit private schools and the families that attend them. One example is the expansion of 529 college savings accounts, which disproportionately benefit the affluent households that have the most disposable income to save and are in the higher tax brackets that gain the most from its tax-free growth. OBBBA permanently extends a provision enacted in 2017 that allows parents to use 529s for elementary and secondary education tuition and expenses. But by doing nothing to address the notoriously regressive nature of 529s, this change merely helps wealthy parents pay for their child’s private school tuition tax-free.

In addition, OBBBA creates a new benefit to further funnel taxpayer resources to private schooling. Donations to “scholarship-granting institutions” – intermediary organizations that fund vouchers for students to attend private schools – will now receive a dollar-for-dollar tax credit on donations up to $1,700, meaning that a donation to these groups is essentially fully reimbursed by the federal government. This goes far beyond the income deduction granted to other charitable donations, giving private schools a massive tax advantage over other groups — such as churches, cancer research centers, or food banks — by making the donation essentially cost nothing. In addition, the credit has few guardrails to prevent abuse or even target those who would most benefit. For example, student eligibility is tied to 300% of an area’s median income, which for a family of four in many metro areas is nearly $500,000. Rather than help a low-income family pay for private schooling, the benefit could merely give a tax benefit for wealthy children who would have paid for private school anyway.

5. Strains State Budgets

In addition to blowing up the federal budget, OBBBA also places an enormous strain on state governments. The bill’s deep federal cuts to core safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP, while nominally saving money for the federal government, mostly just push those costs onto states. According to the National Governors Association, the law’s cuts to these two programs alone would leave states with roughly $111 billion in increased costs to absorb. Most states have balanced budget requirements and operate on narrow margins, meaning that they are not equipped to handle a shock of this size without sharp benefit cuts or tax increases. As a result, Medicaid coverage could shrink, food assistance could be cut, and program administration will suffer.

The cuts will also impact state budgets in indirect ways. For example, the federal school lunch program allows communities to qualify if over a quarter of their students are enrolled in federal aid programs like SNAP or Medicaid. But if OBBBA cuts push enough families off those programs, these schools will lose eligibility, jeopardizing food access for children and requiring states to fill in the gap to ensure those children still have access to meals. Moreover, the bill’s substantial cuts to green energy credits will imperil infrastructure projects and other economic activity that would have brought tax revenue to states.

Read the full piece here.

High-seas pirate attacks are up 50% this year

FACT: High-seas pirate attacks are up 50% this year.

THE NUMBERS: Pirate attacks* –

Jan.-June 2025   90
Jan.-June 2024   60
Full year 2024 116
Average 2021-2024 121
All-time peak (2005) 471

International Maritime Bureau.

WHAT THEY MEAN: 

Statistically, the risk of a pirate attack isn’t high. UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport found 108,789 civilian vessels — trawlers, cruise ships, container ships, tankers, etc. — on the water last year. Fishing fleet data is less precise, but FAO’s most recent State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture suggests that somewhere around 70,000 big fishing boats. Set against these tens of thousands of ships, the Kuala Lumpur-based International Maritime Bureau reported 116 pirate attacks last year. This is the second-lowest total in their thirty years of reporting, and down nearly 80% from the 471-attack peak in 2005.

Nonetheless, it’s bad if it happens to you. The May 30 attack on the MV Orange Frost illustrates. This is an eight-year-old refrigerated bulk carrier, built in Taiwan and Curacao-flagged, 8,726 deadweight tons and 137 meters long. At the time, it was carrying a cargo of fish from Cameroon to the Republic of Congo. IMB’s attack summary:

“Seven pirates boarded the ship underway. [Note: they were steaming south past Sao Tome e Principe, about 70 nautical miles from nearest land.] Alarm raised, distress message activated, and all but two crew retreated into the citadel. A Nigerian Navy team responded, boarded the ship, and assisted the crew. On inspecting the ship bloodstains were identified near a ladder used by the pirates. It is suspected a crew member [later reported to be the second engineer] was kidnapped. The ship sailed to a safe port.”

As an example of this year’s pirate events, this one is pretty typical. First, it occurred in a high-risk location, the Gulf of Guinea being one of three long-time centers of pirate activity, along with the busy Southeast Asian waters around Singapore and Indonesia, and the Horn of Africa. Second, like 71 of the 90 attacks this year, this was a high-seas attack in international waters; only 15 attacks so far have targeted ships at anchor, and only four ships in dock. Third, bulk carriers are frequent targets, hit  in 34 attacks so far this year, as against 23 on tankers, 13 container ships, 4 fishing trawlers, and the remaining 16 miscellaneous vessels. And finally, it had apparently limited goals, with the pirates looking for a theft and kidnapping-for-ransom opportunity rather than trying a full hijacking.

Stepping back a bit, though, IMB’s data suggests that pirate attacks are becoming more frequent and more dangerous. Some indicators:

  • The attack on MV Orange Frost was the 62nd of 90 such attacks so far this year – 50% up from the 60 attacks reported in the first half of 2024.
  • Seven attacks involved kidnappings like that of the unlucky Second Engineer, a Russian national whose fate hasn’t been reported;
  • 34 attacks involved guns, nearly as many as the 43 involving firearms in the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 combined; and
  • Four involved successful hijacking of an entire ship, as compared to four ship hijackings in all of 2024, one each in 2021 and 2022, and two in 2023.

By region, attack counts are sharply up this year in two of the three high-risk areas.  The biggest jump has been in maritime Southeast Asia, with 57 of this year’s 90 attacks in the Singapore Strait.  IMB’s summary suggests that these are mainly opportunistic operations: “Pirates/robbers [in the Singapore Strait] are usually armed with guns, knives, and/or machetes. Pirates/robbers normally approach vessels during the night. When spotted and alarm is sounded, the pirates/robbers usually escape without confronting the crew.”

Attack counts are also up (though totals are lower) around the Horn of Africa.  Here, ships must pick their way between an ominously reviving Somali pirate fleet to the south and the Houthi movement running Yemen on the north. Where most Southeast Asian and West African pirates appear to be small-scale (though violent) opportunists, Somalia’s pirates operate on an industrial scale, using military weapons and in the 2010s attacking ships as far south as Mozambique and Madagascar:

“Somali pirates have the capability to target vessels over 1000 nautical miles from coast using ‘mother vessels.’ In 2025, two fishing vessels and a dhow were hijacked.  … Generally, Somali pirates tend to be well armed with automatic weapons and RPGs.  They sometimes use skiffs launched from mother vessels, which may themselves be hijacked fishing vessels or dhows.”

At their peak 15 years ago, Somali pirates had captured 49 ships and were holding over 1,000 crew hostage.  International naval patrols suppressed the industry in the mid-2010s.  It may now be reviving, perhaps taking advantage of the “security shadow” cast to the north of the Gulf of Aden by the Houthi militant movement in Yemen, to resume large-scale pirate ventures. Somali pirates mounted all four of last year’s successful ship hijacks, and three of this year’s four.

The Gulf of Guinea has been quieter, with no rise this year. So MV Orange Frost appears to have had bad luck. We haven’t found any public updates on the unfortunate Second Engineer’s status, but the in general May attack seems to have interrupted the ship’s business only temporarily.  Having finished a Mauritania-Ghana trip last week, it’s now back in Congo.

FURTHER READING

The International Maritime Bureau’s piracy reporting for January to June 2025 (with archives for earlier reports).

The U.S. Navy tallies threats to civilian shipping worldwide.

The Nigerian Navy recounts the rescue of MV Orange Frost.

… and MV Orange Frost itself is back to business.

The rise, fall, and possible revival of Somalia’s pirate fleet:

The Brookings Institution has background on the Somali pirate industry’s 2000-2010 peak.

Combined Task Force 151, led this year by Pakistan, squashed it by 2015.

Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies/Africa reports on its recent revival.

And some boat counts: 

UNCTAD counts civilian cargo vessels, and reports on worldwide maritime trade as of 2024.

And FAO’s estimates of the fishery fleet.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.

Manno for Forbes: The Dreary State Of Global Teenage Career Preparation

Teenagers from around the world enter the workforce blindfolded. They are intensely interested in future careers. Their expectations, though, are outdated because they are not aware of the career options available to them. Family background plays a significant role in shaping this mismatch, more than real-world insights or aptitude.

This news of teens adrift as they move from school to work is the central message from a new report released by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on the State of Global Teenage Career Preparation. The report uses 2022 data from the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). It surveyed roughly 690,000 15- and 16-year-old students from more than 80 countries, including the U.S. OECD began collecting this data in 2000 with a smaller group of countries, which allows it to make comparisons over this time period.

Read more in Forbes.

PPI Calls on FCC to Update Satellite Rules for Faster, Cheaper Internet

WASHINGTON — The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) filed comments with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) calling for a review of outdated satellite regulations to unlock faster, more reliable broadband across the United States. PPI’s comments (read the full filing here), submitted July 24 by Mary Guenther, Head of Space Policy, urge the FCC to modernize equivalent power-flux density (EPFD) limits to reflect advances in low-Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary (GEO) satellite technology.

“Current EPFD limits were written decades ago and fail to capture the capabilities of modern satellite systems,” said Guenther. “The FCC has a historic opportunity to promote smarter spectrum use, expand connectivity for unserved and underserved communities, and make real progress toward closing the digital divide.”

The FCC’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Modernizing Spectrum Sharing for Satellite Broadband (SB Docket No. 25-157) reviews spectrum-sharing rules for geostationary satellite orbit (GSO) and non-geostationary satellite orbit (NGSO) systems. PPI’s comments highlight that technological advances, including adaptive coding and modulation (ACM), allow more efficient and low-interference sharing of spectrum between GSO and NGSO operators.

Key points from PPI’s comments include:

  • Outdated Limits: EPFD rules designed decades ago overly restrict NGSO capacity and need modernization.
  • Advanced Technology: Innovations like ACM and improved LEO and GEO satellite design make smarter spectrum sharing possible.
  • Expanded Access: Updating EPFD limits would boost broadband availability, particularly in rural areas where fiber deployment is impractical.
  • Consumer Benefits: Greater competition from LEO broadband providers would lower costs and improve service quality nationwide.

“Preserving the status quo means preserving exclusion,” said Guenther. “Smart reform will ensure spectrum works for the public good in the broadband age.”

Read and download the complete filing here.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us @PPI.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Canter for RealClearEducation: Democrats Can and Should Support Public School Choice

At a recent dinner party with people who would define themselves as “very liberal,” someone asked me whether my new center-left employer was uncomfortable with my long record of advocacy for charter schools. “No,” I shrugged, “because charter schools are public schools.”

“But they aren’t real public schools,” he chided.

I’ve had this same conversation dozens of times in the last twenty years, and it goes to the heart of the debate now about private school choice. What makes a public school “public”? What does it mean to provide children with a “public education”?

Ask most Americans to define “public schools” or “public education,” and you’re likely to get a response that goes something like “public education happens at public schools; public schools are schools everyone can go to, they’re free, and they have to follow the rules set by the government.”

Read more in RealClearEducation.

Moss for DC Journal: Antitrust Immunity for the NCAA? That’s a Foul

If a billion-dollar organization breaks the law, should Congress reward it with immunity from the antitrust laws? The NCAA and some lawmakers seem to think so, and the recently introduced House bill — The Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements Act (‘‘SCORE Act”) — does just this.

College sports are at a crossroads. Student-athletes have only recently gained the right to earn money from their name, image and likeness (NIL). Just as this progress gains steam, Congress may undermine it by granting the NCAA a sweeping exemption from antitrust law.

Buried in the SCORE Act legislation is a clause that would make “compliance” with it broadly immune from enforcement of federal antitrust law and any state law or rules that have the same effect, no matter how anti-competitive its rules may be.

Read more in DC Journal. 

Republicans Missed a Perfect Opportunity to Cut Wasteful Spending in Medicare

Republicans are congratulating themselves for “cutting wasteful spending” after ramming through a partisan bill to rescind $9 billion of funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting. Yet just last month, they walked away from a bipartisan proposal to save more than 60 times that amount over 10 years by curtailing overpayments to privately-run Medicare Advantage plans in their reconciliation bill. 

Republicans seem afraid to make any changes to politically popular programs like Medicare, even when they’re targeting obvious waste and abuse. By refusing to tackle wasteful spending in Medicare Advantage, they missed a perfect opportunity to enact bipartisan reforms that would strengthen Medicare’s financial footing and fix a broken incentive structure that prevents Medicare Advantage from delivering on its promise. 

Congress created Medicare Advantage in 1997 to give seniors the option to receive their Medicare benefits from private insurers rather than the federal government. In addition to expanding choice and competition in health care, Medicare Advantage was designed to save money for Medicare by rewarding insurers for containing costs. Under the system, private plans submit “bids” estimating the cost of covering a typical senior. Plans that bid below a benchmark, based on traditional Medicare’s per-person spending, receive part of the difference as a rebate. Payments to plans are also adjusted for each enrollee’s risk score based on their health history to compensate plans for covering sicker, more expensive patients.

Medicare Advantage had enormous potential to reduce Medicare’s costs. Traditional Medicare overpays for many services, and its fee-for-service payment structure incentivizes providers to perform unnecessary procedures in order to increase reimbursements. Introducing private competition into this market could have improved efficiency and driven down costs. But this cost-saving potential has been undermined by unscrupulous insurers who focus on manipulating the system to boost profits, rather than delivering high-value care. The most brazen tactic these insurers use is upcoding — inflating enrollees’ risk scores to make them appear sicker than they really are.

In recent years, insurance companies have found new ways to increase enrollees’ risk scores. They reward patients for completing health risk assessments with company-employed providers, which often lead to questionable new diagnoses. They also comb through patients’ medical records in chart reviews to look for diagnoses that doctors never reported. These tactics have helped insurers raise risk scores by an average of 16% compared to similar patients in traditional Medicare. Medicare applies a 5.9% coding intensity adjustment to partially offset this effect, but upcoding is still projected to cause $600 billion in overpayments to Medicare Advantage insurers over the next ten years. 

Some Senate Republicans hoped to fix this problem by including language from the bipartisan No UPCODE Act in their reconciliation bill. This legislation would block insurers from inflating risk scores with diagnoses from health risk assessments or chart reviews, unless diagnoses are also confirmed in a medical setting. It would also modify the risk adjustment formula to increase parity with traditional Medicare. Most crucially, the act would require Medicare to update the coding intensity adjustment every year to account for the full effect of upcoding.

During negotiations, several Republican senators floated these reforms as a way to help offset the cost of their reconciliation package. But some GOP lawmakers in vulnerable districts pushed back, worried that any measure to reduce Medicare spending could be framed as a politically toxic cut to benefits. President Trump weighed in as well, reportedly telling a Senator that “people who play around with Medicare lose elections.” So just days later, these reforms were dropped from consideration, and Republicans put even more of their “One Big Beautiful Bill” on the nation’s credit card.

But in reality, continuing the current system of Medicare Advantage overpayments will itself lead to benefit cuts by draining Medicare’s resources at a time when the program can least afford it. Medicare’s total spending is projected to grow by nearly 8% per year over the next decade, driven by rising health care costs and an aging population. Without intervention, Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund is projected to become insolvent by 2033, triggering an automatic 11% cut in payments. Medicare’s outpatient spending is growing even faster, pushing up premiums for beneficiaries and increasing the financial burden on taxpayers. 

Adopting upcoding reform would save roughly $600 billion over 10 years, closing nearly half of the Hospital Insurance trust fund’s shortfall in the process. And if lawmakers went even further to tackle all the other sources of Medicare Advantage overpayments, they could roughly double their savings to $1.2 trillion. These savings could allow lawmakers to avoid making cuts to Medicare benefits in the future — that’s why the AARP endorsed the No UPCODE Act last week.

Medicare Advantage, despite its flaws, has many benefits. Seniors should have the freedom to choose the plan that best meets their needs, and genuine competition among insurers could drive them to deliver efficient and high-quality care. But in order to unlock this potential, lawmakers must pass reforms that would force insurers to compete by offering high-value plans — rather than competing to extract the largest possible overpayments.

Weinstein Jr. for Forbes: 5 Reasons Trump Should Think Twice About Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell

It’s no secret that Donald Trump does not like how Jerome Powell is managing the Fed and monetary policy. Despite nominating Powell for the job of Fed Chair in 2017, the President lambasts Powell (who Trump has nicknamed Mr. Too Late) every time the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee meets and doesn’t cut interest rates.

But President Trump should think again if he believes getting rid of Powell will get him what he wants. While the president is desperate for the Fed to cut interest rates, firing Powell before his term ends in eight months is no guarantee that rates would drop, and his departure would also likely rattle the financial markets.

Read more in Forbes.

American shipyards are building three of the 5,448 large commercial vessels on order worldwide

FACT: American shipyards are building three of the 5,448 large commercial vessels on order worldwide.

THE NUMBERS: Major commercial vessels on order, 2024* –

WORLD 5,448
China 3,419
Korea    710
Japan    668
European Union    197
United States        3
All others    451

* BRS Shipbrokers 2025 Annual Review

WHAT THEY MEAN: 

Ecclesiastes 1:9: “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and this which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.” 

The Biden administration’s signature economic plan — “industrial strategy” to rejuvenate aging industries or create new ones — tried to use loans, tax credits, and regulations to ramp up semiconductor chip production and build electric vehicles, battery factories, and low-emission power plants. Its authors achieved less than they hoped. A big reason was their addition of extra costs and qualification hurdles related to different priorities — especially the expensive “Buy American” mandates, but also hiring guidelines, child-care rules, etc. — to the core “more chip-making” and “low-carbon future” goals. This meant industrial-strategy projects cost more, arrived later, had less real-world impact, and wound up more associated in the public mind with spending and higher prices than industry and jobs.

“The thing that hath been done, it is that which shall be.” This spring, the Trump administration adopted the last Biden-era program — an effort to use fees on arriving Chinese-built or Chinese-owned/operated ships to subsidize creation of a U.S. commercial shipbuilding industry. They’re also repeating the Biden team’s extra-cost mistake: Mr. Trump’s obsession with tariffs, especially on metals, suggests that though the shipbuilding program will raise costs for Americans, it won’t launch many ships. Background:

The hope of the chip and EV programs was to enlarge, and partially reshape, large existing industries with lots of capacity, skilled workers, and engineering talent. Reviving commercial shipbuilding is a bigger job. It’s been 70 years since American shipyards built many cargo vessels — the U.S. share of world commercial shipbuilding was only around 2% in the 1960s and 1970s, and has been under 1% since the late 1980s. The current data:

1. Vessel orders: BRS Shipbrokers’ annual review reports 5,448 large cargo vessels on order worldwide in 2024. These are the container ships, tankers, ro/ros, grain carriers, etc. that will carry the world’s cargoes in the 2030s. Chinese yards are making 3,419 of them, while Japan and Korea combine for 1,378. EU countries are building 197; Vietnam, India, Turkey, and the Philippines do most of the rest. The U.S.’ count was an inglorious “three”.

2. Vessel costs: U.S.-built cargo vessels are also expensive. The three 3,620-TEU (i.e., 3,620 twenty-foot containers) Aloha-class container ships under construction at the Philly Yard, destined for domestic Jones Act transport rather than “blue water” intercontinental cargoes, cost about $330 million each. By comparison, the 32 giant container ships Maersk reportedly contracted last year to buy from Korea’s Hanwha Ocean — 22,000 TEU to 24,000 TEU apiece, six times Aloha-class capacity — cost about $272 million each. (Comical asterisk: Hanwha bought the Philly Yard last December, and presumably inherits the Aloha-class contract.)

Given how few commercial ships Americans now build and how much they cost, this industrial-strategy project looks, well, challenging. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, though, and in an era of alarming naval competition, the idea has strategic appeal. But it at minimum needs enough money to:

(a) Purchase land and offer construction contracts to build shipyards able to assemble much larger ships.
(b) Recruit tens of thousands of specialized engineers, welders, and other workers.
(c) Drastically cut the price of U.S.-made ships, so yards could sell them to big international maritime companies as well as small captive-market Jones Act carriers.
(d) Perhaps underwrite some sort of technological leap, rethinking ship-construction methods altogether through advanced AI design, which might, maybe, possibly, help turn the U.S.’ lack of a big incumbent shipbuilder into a “first-mover” advantage.

Now to the fees. They result from a “Section 301” unfair trade petition filed in 2024 by a labor union group, arguing that Chinese subsidies since 2000 had damaged U.S. shipbuilding. The premise is intellectually shaky — U.S. yards were building just two commercial vessels in 2000 – but the Biden administration approved it, and the Trump administration uses it as the legal basis for fees that, barring some change in plan, by April 2028 will reach:

  • $140 per net ton [note: a measurement of cargo capacity] for Chinese-owned or -operated ships.
  • $33 per net ton or $250 per off-loaded container, whichever is higher, for Chinese-built container ships with capacity above 4,000 TEU.
  • $14 per net ton for automobile carriers [note: perhaps legally vulnerable, as it covers all ro/ros made outside the U.S., not only those made or operated by Chinese firms].

Outside the shipbuilding world, the fees will mean new costs. At face value, the fee for unloading 10,000 containers from a Chinese-built container ship operated by a non-Chinese company looks like $2.5 million, and for similar vessels owned by Chinese or Hong Kong carriers, about $10.5 million. As shipping firms incorporate these costs into their cargo charges, prices would rise for both incoming consumer goods and factory or farm inputs (half of all container traffic). American seaports would lose some business, harming local and hinterland economies and reducing U.S. trucking and rail employment. And with fewer vessel calls, especially at smaller ports, exporters, too — especially western-state farmers — would have fewer choices among carriers and higher cargo charges, probably losing some overseas sales. (Exports are 20% of U.S. farm income.) Overall, one analyst this spring estimated, assuming average cost of $1 million per port call, that the fees might reduce U.S. GDP by 0.24% (about $72 billion), with the largest drops in farm income.

They probably won’t, though, bring in enough money for an industrial-strategy project this big. Where the Congressional appropriations and tax breaks for chip and EV production were large and predictable, vessel-call fee revenue would be uncertain and volatile. Importers and shipping firms (at least big ones which own lots of ships) can, after, shift vessel arrival patterns to reduce cost: use non-Chinese ships for American ports when possible; employ small ships exempt from fees more often; drop off Chinese-carried cargos in Mexico or Canada for land transport; centralize calls at very big American ports; bypass smaller ports.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has adopted the Biden team’s characteristic error as well as its industrial-strategy concept. Fees or not, a different policy — higher tariffs, especially on metals — will likely scuttle their core ship-building goal.

Large ocean vessels, after all, are made of metal. Even relatively small Aloha-class container ships use about 14,000 tons of steel. Really big ones like Maersk’s 24,000-TEU EEE-class fleet — 399 meters from stern to bow, as long as an ultra-tall skyscraper is high — are colorfully said to use “eight Eiffel Towers” worth of steel, which would be around 55,000 tons. As a micro-illustration, each link in their anchor chains weighs almost 500 pounds. And even before Mr. Trump’s abrupt June steel-tariff hike (from an already very heavy 25% to 50%), U.S. prices were high. According to the Commerce Department, this spring’s average steel prices were:

U.S. $984/ton
Europe $660/ton
World $440/ton
China $392/ton

 

In short, American shipbuilders pay twice as much as their Japanese or Korean competitors for steel. That’s an extra $30 million for even one big ship. The new 50% rate will add millions more. So will similar aluminum and copper tariffs. So will the administration’s 10% “baseline” and higher “reciprocal” tariffs on paint, wiring, telecom equipment, and other inputs, should they survive court scrutiny this summer. No foreign shipbuilder pays anything like this.

So: Creating a big U.S. commercial shipbuilding industry from near-scratch looks hard and
expensive under any circumstances. That doesn’t necessarily make it hopeless. But trying to create one, while also using tariffs to make U.S.-built ships even more expensive and harder to sell, is probably impossible. Ecclesiastes gets the mordant last word on the usually futile, and often endless, way public money flows into such “subsidies plus mandated cost increases” programs: “All the rivers run to the sea; yet the sea is not full.”

FURTHER READING

PPI’s four principles for response to tariffs and economic isolationism:

  • Defend the Constitution and oppose rule by decree;
  • Connect tariff policy to growth, work, prices and family budgets, and living standards;
  • Stand by America’s neighbors and allies;
  • Offer a positive alternative.

BRS Shipbrokers’ 2025 Annual Review has shipping orders by country and ship type as of
2024.
… or direct to the interactive version.

U.S. policy –

The White House’s maritime strategy.
The U.S. Trade Representative Office outlines its new shipping fees.
The “Section 301” petition soliciting them, filed by four unions and the AFL-CIO’s Maritime
Trades Department.
… and apposite verses from Ecclesiastes (KJV).

Commentary:
Farm Bureau on potential harm to U.S. farm exports.
World Shipping Council views on costs and unintended consequences.

U.S. shipbuilding:
A gloomy 2023 Congressional Research Service look at U.S. shipbuilding.
… and the near-identical 2002 outlook from the Center for Naval Analysis.
The backstory from engineering/construction blogger Brian Potter. TL/DR: 19th century wooden-
ship golden age, early 20th-century fall, brief WWII revival, stasis since.
The Commerce Department reports on steel prices.
The Hanwha Philly Shipyard.
And Jones Act carrier Matson describes Aloha-class container vessels.

Abroad:
UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport examines the world’s commercial shipping fleets.
Maersk explains ocean-shipping services.
Japan’s Imabari Shipbuilding Ltd.
And CSIS analysts Matthew Funaoile, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs on China’s dual-use shipbuilding empire.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.

Jacoby on Washington Monthly ‘Politics Roundtable’ podcast: Trump Turns on Putin

After years of slavish fawning over Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump has apparently made an abrupt about-face in his views on the Russian President. In the last week, he has threatened huge tariffs on Russia’s trading partners if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire; he’s also restarted the flow of arms to Ukraine via third-party transactions with European allies. But will his resolve on Ukraine hold?

Contributing writer Tamar Jacoby, Director of the New Ukraine Project for the Progressive Policy Institute, joined Editor in Chief Paul Glastris, Politics Editor Bill Scher, Exective Editor for Digital Matt Cooper and moderator Anne Kim for this week’s episode of the Washington Monthly Politics Roundtable.  They also discuss Jeffrey Epstein drama and the Rescissions battle in Congress.

Listen to the full interview. 

Marshall in The New York Times: The Seeds of Democratic Revival Have Already Been Sown

We encountered more emphasis from the left than the center on countering corporate power. Centrists, by contrast, emphasized reforming the government itself (…)

Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, a moderate think tank, put it this way: Democrats “need to get serious about reinventing government again. One big reason Bidenomics didn’t land with working families is that they don’t think the federal government works for their benefit or can deliver on its promises. By reflexively defending underperforming public institutions — from public schools to ossified federal agencies — Democrats only cement their identification with a broken status quo.”

Read the full article in The New York Times.