Wingnut Watch: Cut, Cap, Balance, Perry.

It’s a High Noon moment in Wingnut World, as conservatives do everything possible to sabotage a deal to increase the debt limit even as their congressional leaders negotiate behind the scenes to make a deal possible. Yesterday’s near-party-line vote in the House passing the “Cut, Cap, Balance Act” represented a particularly vivid demonstration of conservative inflexibility and its grip on the GOP. CCB would write directly into the U.S. Constitution the Right’s current contention that fiscal problems are always and invariably the result of excessive spending, and that a fixed, ideal ratio between spending and GDP can be deduced and legislated forever.

But extreme as the CCB exercise appeared in terms of all precedent, from the perspective of many conservative activists it was a bit of a wimpy compromise. CCB suggests, after all, there is a circumstance—an insanely remote circumstance, to be sure—under which a debt limit increase would be appropriate. That’s offensive to those who earlier staked out a “just say no” position Indeed, two of the nine votes cast by House Republicans against the CCB bill were from presidential candidates Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul. Bachmann had just, earlier this week, become the ninth candidate (everyone in the race other than heresiarch Jon Huntsman) to sign the Cut-Cap-Balance Pledge, after adding a proviso that she wouldn’t support a debt limit increase until such time as the Affordable Care Act of 2010 is repealed.

With CCB going nowhere in the Senate, Wingnuts now have at least a few days to fulminate against, and then to oppose, any actual debt limit deal. Their public rationales for obstructionism vary: Many conservatives are default denialists, who claim there are actually no significant economic consequences to a failed debt limit increase because the feds will figure out some way to pay creditors until something can be worked out. Others are what might be called bullies-and-bluffers, who are convinced (like some of their brethren on the Left) that the president and congressional Democrats will always and invariably surrender in any negotiations on any subject, making the maximum hard line the appropriate GOP starting point. And still others profess to believe that excessive federal spending—and/or the continued existence of entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—is the real threat to the economy and indeed to human liberty, making some short-term global economic collapse a small price to pay for a return to the lost Eden of the Coolidge Administration.

If, of course, a deal is struck and somehow can be maneuvered through Congress with just enough Republican votes to obtain a majority, we’ll see a whole new cycle of recriminations against this fresh “betrayal” by “RINOs”, complete with threats of primary challenges and maybe even third parties. That any such deal will almost certainly involve unprecedented Democratic concessions on spending, bipartisan “cover” for unpopular changes in entitlements, and abandonment of longstanding Democratic demands for higher taxes on the wealthy, won’t cut much ice on the Right.

As the countdown to default continues in Washington, two very different countdowns are underway on the presidential campaign trail: the countdown to the first real contest of the cycle, the August 13 Iowa GOP Straw Poll, and the countdown to Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s decision on whether to join the race.

Michele Bachmann continues to be the favorite to win the Straw Poll; she’s using her hard-line position on the debt limit to maximum advantage in Iowa, making it the subject of her first statewide TV ad (entitled “Courage”). But she’s now undergoing the first real rough patch of intense media scrutiny and personal questions, some undoubtedly inspired by her opponents. At present, the chattering classes are buzzing over anonymous claims that she is frequently incapacitated by migraine headaches and/or treatment for that condition.

Meanwhile, speculation mounts that Perry will soon jump in (though it’s no more definitive than earlier claims that Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels were minutes away from candidacy). The implications of a Perry run depend on how you see his appeal. Some observers appear to think that the combination of his fundraising prowess, his Tea Party connections, and the “story” of Texas’ economic success, is simply unbeatable. The Hill’s Christian Heinze, for example, who is following the race full-time, appears to think Perry would almost immediately create a one-on-one battle for the nomination with Mitt Romney as Tea Partiers abandoned Bachmann and Cain for the pretty-boy Texan. But as Heinze himself notes, some New Hampshire Tea Folk, however, are raising questions about Perry’s chronic resistance to anti-immigration laws and rhetoric (a smart stance in Texas, but not necessarily elsewhere) and his staunch support for Rudy Giuliani in 2008. And Texans do not quite seem to share the national conservative belief they are living in an economic paradise engineered by Perry’s determination to give corporate executives absolutely everything they want.

If Perry does run—before or after his August 6 prayer-a-thon event in Houston that is certain to raise some questions about his relationship with the theocratic wing of conservative evangelicalism—he will face an immediate strategic decision about whether to plunge into the Iowa Caucus campaign full-bore (it’s already a bit late for a Straw Poll bid by Perry, though the Iowa GOP could put him on the ballot for the event), or instead lay a trap in South Carolina for whoever wins Iowa and New Hampshire (say, Bachmann and Romney). A complicating factor for a Dixiefied strategy by Perry is that wingnut kingmaker Sen. Jim DeMint has successfully convinced most Palmetto State pols and donors to hold off on any candidate endorsements or financial commitments until after Labor Day, apparently to increase his own leverage over the field. Leave it to virulently anti-union South Carolina Republicans to make Labor Day a signpost for keeping rightward ideological pressure on their party and its presidential field.

Photo credit: Bonzo McGrue

Family Planning Fight Moves to States

Back in April, House Republicans tried to kill funding for a couple of the right’s favorite bête noires: Planned Parenthood and the Title X federal grant program for family planning. Stymied by Senate Democrats, conservative culture warriors have moved on to what they see as more promising battlegrounds: states with GOP governors or legislatures.

 

Measures to defund Planned Parenthood already have passed in North Carolina, Indiana, Kansas, and Wisconsin, and are pending in several other states. The states have different strategies for cutting Planned Parenthood out of the action. Mostly, they bar state governments from contracting with the organization for family planning services using federal Medicaid and Title X dollars. Planned Parenthood notes that some states are withholding federal grants specifically earmarked for the organization.

New Hampshire’s Executive Council recently voted to reject a $1.8 million contract with Planned Parenthood. Council Member Raymond Wieczorek explained, “I am opposed to abortion. I am opposed to providing condoms to someone. If you want to have a party, have a party but don’t ask me to pay for it.”

As Weiczorek’s comment makes clear, conservatives aren’t just aiming at their usual target, abortion, but at contraceptives as well. Scott Walker, Wisconsin’s Republican Governor boasted during his campaign of “trying to defund Planned Parenthood and make sure they didn’t have any money, not just for abortion, but any money for anything.”

The right’s jihad against Planned Parenthood and family planning is likely to cause the opposite of its intended effect. Making it harder for people to get access to contraception will result in more unintended pregnancies, some of which undoubtedly will end in abortion. And if such bans are not reversed, there’s a high risk of collateral damage to a cause Republicans presumably support: reducing the epidemic of teen and unplanned pregnancy in America.

With over 400,000 girls aged 15 to 19 giving birth each year, America’s teen pregnancy rate is among the highest of all industrialized countries. Nearly one-quarter of teen mothers go on welfare within three years of having a child, and according to the CDC, lack of access to contraceptives is a key factor contributing to high teen pregnancy rates, a problem that costs taxpayers nearly $11 billion a year.

As I wrote here, teen pregnancy also plays a large role in the nationwide dropout crisis—30 percent of girls who drop out of high school cite pregnancy or parenthood as a key reason they left school. The close connection between teen pregnancy and dropping out of school is another compelling reason not to cut funding for family planning programs.

Contraception, which Planned Parenthood and other family planning clinics provide at a low cost, significantly reduces unplanned pregnancy and in turn reduces the number of abortions. Studies show that easier access to birth control pills decreases abortion rates drastically. In fact, most of the decline in teen pregnancy rates in the U.S. is due to teens’ more consistent contraceptive use.

Republicans want to punish Planned Parenthood for providing legal abortions, even though abortion accounts for only 3 percent of its services. In addition to affordable contraception that prevents teen and unplanned pregnancy and abortions, Planned Parenthood also provides other vital health services for women, like cancer screening and prevention, STD testing and treatment, and prenatal care.

According to a Guttmacher Institute study, 1.94 million unintended pregnancies are prevented each year by services provided at family planning clinics. Of these averted pregnancies, 400,000 would have occurred among teens. Defunding Planned Parenthood would deal a huge blow to crucial efforts to prevent teen pregnancy, undermining clinics’ capacity to provide sex education and teen pregnancy prevention initiatives. The same study finds that 810,000 abortions were prevented by services provided at family planning clinics. Without these services, the abortion rate in the U.S. would be two-thirds higher than the current rate.

Planned Parenthood isn’t taking this lying down. The organization has already won lawsuits defending abortion rights in Kansas and South Dakota. In Indiana, it won a legal battle when a district judge blocked enforcement of the defunding measure. The Obama Administration has made it clear to Indiana that cutting off Medicaid funds to Planned Parenthood is illegal—the law says that Medicaid beneficiaries can choose any qualified healthcare provider they wish. Planned Parenthood is also suing over North Carolina’s budget provision that cuts the organization off from any federal and state funds.

 

Cutting the number of abortions ought to be a goal that unites progressives and conservatives. Instead of slashing funding for clinics that provide fundamental health services for young and low-income women, Republicans should put their focus on reducing the need for abortions. The GOP’s moral guardians may not like it, but this means encouraging responsibility through safe sex and contraceptive use and continuing to fund family planning programs that help prevent teen and unplanned pregnancy and abortion.

Photo Credit: WeNews

Natural Gas Reconsidered

During the past few years, the United States has received an unexpected energy windfall: put simply, we have a lot more natural gas than we previously thought. This realization is altering America’s energy future in a fundamental way. For many years, the conventional wisdom was that natural gas would play an important role as a bridge fuel but then fade away as the U.S. and the world turned to renewable sources of energy later in the 21st century.

Recent discoveries of enormous gas reserves in the United States offer a very different vision for the future of natural gas. Expanding domestic production will resolve the primary issue that is presently keeping natural gas from becoming the dominant energy resource in the U.S.: the inadequacy of supplies to guarantee long-term availability at reasonable and predictable prices. Yet a recent report by the MIT Energy Initiative estimates that U.S. reservoirs may contain enough natural gas to meet the demand for 90 to 100 years at current consumption levels with much less price volatility.

New technology enabling the extraction of natural gas from shale has been called the most significant energy innovation this century; this discovery has spurred the expansion of U.S. natural gas production. Technology developed primarily in the United States has made the dramatic expansion of U.S. natural gas resources possible. Further technical improvements may enable an even larger expansion of our natural gas resources. ExxonMobil, a company nearly synonymous with oil, now predicts that natural gas will be the fastest growing major fuel source worldwide through 2030. Clearly, something very significant has happened in the world of energy.

Read the entire policy brief here.

PPI EVENT: The Natural Gas Revolution: Promise and Pitfalls

Opening Remarks:
Heather Zichal

Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change

The Honorable Jason Altmire
U.S. Representative (D-Penn.)

David McCurdy
President of the American Gas Association

Roundtable Participants:
Roger Cooper
Principal, Cleveland Park Policy Consulting
Vello Kuuskraa
President, Advanced Resources Inc.
Amy Mall
Senior Policy Analyst, Natural Resources Defense Council
Peter Molinaro
Vice President, Federal and State Government Affairs, The Dow Chemical Company
Peter Robertson,
Senior Vice President, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, America’s Natural Gas Alliance

Date:
Thursday, July 21, 2011
10 a.m.

Location:
National Press Club
Zenger Room
529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC

Register for this event.


If you have any questions, please contact 202-525-3931.

Space is limited. RSVP required.

MEDIA ALERT: Zichal, Altmire, McCurdy and Experts to Speak on the U.S. Natural Gas Revolution

WASHINGTON, D.C. – As policy makers focus their attention this week on growing U.S. natural gas supplies as well as concerns over “fracking” methods used to produce shale gas, the Progressive Policy Institute will release a new policy paper on natural gas and host a high-profile forum on Thursday, July 21 at 10 a.m. convening leaders from the White House, Congress, the natural gas industry, the manufacturing sector, and the environmental community.

Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Heather Zichal, U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire (D-Penn.), and President of the American Gas Association David McCurdy will join the Progressive Policy Institute for the timely public forum and discussion.

“Natural Gas Reconsidered,” PPI’s new policy memo, examines how recent technological innovations have changed the supply picture for natural gas as a domestic energy resource, and looks at the implications of this supply “windfall” for the industry, policy makers, and the job-starved U.S. economy. “Recent discoveries of enormous gas reserves in the United States offer a very different vision for the future of natural gas,” writes Cooper. “It no longer makes sense to treat natural gas as just another dirty fossil fuel that the United States should stop burning as soon as we can find a feasible replacement.”

In addition to the three speakers, the forum will feature an all-star roundtable discussion headed by Roger Cooper, the author of the new PPI paper; along with Vello Kuuskraa, President of Advanced Resources Inc.; Amy Mall of the Natural Resources Defense Council; Peter Molinaro of the Dow Chemical Company; and Peter Robertson of America’s Natural Gas Alliance. Moderating the discussion will be Greenwire Energy Reporter Mike Soraghan.

As part of this discussion among key stakeholders, Kuuskraa will also introduce a new “Sustainable Shale Gas Development Initiative” that will identify ten immediate steps the industry can take to address environmental concerns in advance of any potential regulations by federal and state agencies.

WHO

The Honorable Jason Altmire, U.S. Representative (D-Penn.)
Heather Zichal, Deputy Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change
David McCurdy, , President of the American Gas Association

Roundtable Particpants:
Roger Cooper, Principal, Cleveland Park Policy Consulting
Vello Kuuskraa, President, Advanced Resources Inc.
Amy Mall, Senior Policy Analyst, Natural Resources Defense Council
Peter Molinaro, Vice President, Federal and State Government Affairs, The Dow Chemical Company
Peter Robertson, Senior Vice President, Legislative and Regulatory Affairs, America’s Natural Gas Alliance

Moderated by: Mike Soraghan, Energy Reporter, Greenwire

WHEN

Thursday, July 21, 2011
9:30 a.m.: Camera pre-set
9:30–10 a.m.: Guest check-in and registration
10 a.m.–11:45 a.m.: Event

-Opening Remarks:

Heather Zichal
Rep. Jason Altmire
David McCurdy

-Panel Discussion:

Cooper, Kuuskraa, Mall, Molinaro, and Robertson

WHERE

National Press Club, Zenger Room, 529 14th Street NW, 
Washington, DC

MEDIA COVERAGE

The event is open to the press. All participants will be available to answer questions from the media. Media in attendance are required to register in advance of the event to Steven Chlapecka at 202.525.3931 or schlapecka@ppionline.org.

For further questions, please contact Steven Chlapecka at schlapecka@ppionline.org, 202.525.3931 (office), 202.556.1752 (cell).

# # #

Balanced Budget Amendment: A Gimmicky Disaster-in-Waiting.

By refusing to budge on tax revenues, House Republicans have blown a rare chance to get Democrats to swallow trillions of dollars in federal budget cuts. As New York Times columnist David Brooks notes in a shrewd piece today, cuts of such magnitude would have provoked a rancorous split between President Obama and liberals.

Instead, Republicans have opted for ideological purity, including today’s purely symbolic vote on a balanced budget amendment that isn’t going anywhere.

The Balanced Budget Amendment (BBA) is an almost perfect embodiment of the contemporary GOP’s gimmicky approach to governing. It’s an uncomplicated way to convey toughness, and it allows conservatives to drape themselves in the mantle of fiscal responsibility without taking the heat for cutting specific programs. And like many of the faux solutions to which Republicans seem fatally attracted, it would damage our economy.

A balanced budget amendment would handcuff the federal government in times of emergency. Backers say the rule could be waived during recessions, but it’s never clear until after when recessions begin and end. Since most of the states have balanced budget mandates, only Washington can spend at the right time and on a scale sufficient to exert counter-cyclical pressure during downturns. The federal government’s superior resources and borrowing capacity make it in effect the nation’s fiscal reserve.

Republicans almost rammed through a BBA in 1997. In the years that followed, the Clinton administration produced balanced budgets the old-fashioned way, by cutting actual programs and making trade-offs among competing public priorities.

Nonetheless, House Republicans once again claim that only a Constitutional amendment can force Congress to do its fiscal duty. Their “Cut, Cap and Balance” plan not only would bar budget deficits, but would also limit federal spending to 18% of economic output, two points below the average of the past several decades.

In other words, it would force massively disruptive cuts in all federal spending, from Medicare and Social Security to the Pentagon and domestic programs. Not even Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, the GOP’s uber fiscal hawk, goes this far.

At the same time, the proposed amendment would make it well-nigh impossible to raise taxes, which would require a two-thirds vote in the House and the Senate. It’s a formula for rigidity at best and fiscal paralysis at worst. It would invite judicial interference in a power the Constitution unambiguously delegates to Congress – the power of the purse – and narrow the scope of democratic decision-making.

So why are House Republicans pushing it now? Because they know that, in the end, at least some House Republicans will have to vote to raise the debt limit to avert an economic calamity. They want the political cover of having voted for a “permanent” solution to the debt crisis – the BBA – to shield them from the Tea Party’s wrath.

Senate Democrats of course aren’t about to let Republicans write their economic ideology into the nation’s fundamental law, and President Obama has threatened a veto. Still, it’d be a relief if Republicans could find ways to score political points with their base that don’t injure our economy — either by plunging the nation into default, or enshrining archaic notions of a feeble national government in the U.S. Constitution.

Photo Credit: Common Pixels

What Would Reagan Do?

Guess who said this:

“The full consequences of a default – or even the serious prospect of default – by the United States are impossible to predict and awesome to contemplate. Denigration of the full faith and credit of the United States would have substantial effects on the domestic financial markets and the value of the dollar.”

President Obama? Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner? No, Ronald Reagan, in a 1983 letter to then-Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker. And yet GOP Sen. Jim DeMint called Geithner a “Chicken Little” for issuing an almost identical warning against undermining America’s global creditworthiness.

The Republicans have come a long way since Ronald Reagan occupied the Oval Office – and it’s mostly been downhill.

Winning no prizes for statesmanship is House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, who argues that it’s more important to prevent the government from raising a penny more in tax revenue than to prevent it from going bankrupt and defaulting on its debts. He says Republicans are making a major concession to Obama just by considering his request to raise the debt ceiling.

The Gipper must be rolling in his grave. Unlike Cantor, he didn’t worry that doing his public duty might be construed as a favor to his political opponents. Reagan was no fan of higher taxes either, but he manned up and raised them when that became necessary to corral federal deficits and restore fiscal responsibility.

What would Reagan do today? The best way to answer that is to look at what he actually did do as president.

First, Reagan pushed through the giant 1981 tax cut that marked America’s first misbegotten experiment with supply side economics. Whatever stimulative effect it may have had was soon overwhelmed by Fed Chairman Paul Volker’s decision to raise interest rates to wring inflation out of the economy. America suffered a harrowing recession in 1982, and federal deficits exploded.

Reagan urged the nation to “stay the course,” but on taxes he changed course. In 1982, when unemployment stood at 10.1 percent, he signed the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act, which increased taxes by around one percent of GDP. Irate conservatives blamed the baleful influence of Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole. A young GOP backbencher and bombthrower, Newt Gingrich, famously called Dole “the tax collector of the welfare state.”

That was something of a bad rap, however, since Reagan ended up raising taxes a total of 11 times during his presidency. Unlike today’s Republicans, he believed fiscal discipline was more important than supply side theories and he understood that compromise is crucial to advancing national interests. In his second term, Reagan embraced a Democratic proposal to broaden the tax base by closing loopholes, and use the savings to bring rates down. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 simplified the tax code by drastically reducing the number of deductions and the number of tax brackets.

Reagan’s determination to not let deficits get too far out of hand continued under his successor. President George H.W. Bush even broke his “read my lips” pledge in 1990, pushing a deficit reduction package that cut spending by $324 billion and raised revenues by $159 billion over five years. Many conservatives were apoplectic, but Bush’s brave move helped put America on track toward the budget surpluses that President Bill Clinton achieved in the late 1990s.

Tea Party Republicans reject that legacy – even though it led to the balanced budget they are now loudly demanding. As conservative NYT columnist David Brooks wrote recently, that’s a radical departure from the party’s tradition of fiscal rectitude as well as the political give and take that makes democratic politics work.

It’s also repudiation of Reagan, the man conservatives love to venerate and name airports after but, as it turns out, honor in the breach when it comes to protecting the full faith and credit of the United States.

Photo Credit: Brett Tatman

Will Cantor Blow Up the Economy?

The stock market plunged over 150 points yesterday as Republicans hardened their stance in debt reduction talks with the White House. The sharp drop was a timely reminder that a political failure to raise the debt ceiling would be a body blow to America’s already weak economy.

The odds of that happening rose sharply this weekend, as House Speaker John Boehner broke off talks with President Obama because he couldn’t get Republicans to support a fiscal “grand bargain” that would include higher tax revenues. That puts Majority Leader Eric Cantor in charge of GOP negotiating strategy — and on the spot.

Unlike Boehner, who seems to have the quaint idea that voters sent him to Washington to solve problems, Cantor is a faithful medium for channeling the Tea Party’s anti-Washington wrath. Rather than prepare his troops for the compromises and shared sacrifices that reducing America’s debts inevitably will entail, he’s been a zealous enforcer of the GOP’s “zero tolerance” dogma on taxes.

Cantor says Republicans can live with closing tax loopholes, as long as every penny saved goes into lowering tax rates. Meanwhile, most House Republicans last week opposed even modest efforts to trim defense spending. So here in essence is Cantor’s generous offer to President Obama and the Democrats: You agree to cut domestic programs by about $2 trillion now and we’ll vote to raise the debt ceiling by that amount. Oh, and after that, we’ll start whacking entitlement programs.

What a deal! Since no self-respecting Democrat would ever bargain on such one-sided terms, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that House Republicans actually want to plunge the nation into a new economic crisis. Do they really hate taxes – or Obama – that much? Or maybe in their revolutionary fervor the Tea Party patriots have unwittingly internalized the old Bolshevic slogan: “the worse, the better.”

In any case, the public seems to be in no mood for a politically manufactured crisis on top of the steady drumbeat of bad economic news — and Obama has deftly set up Republicans to take the political fall.

In contrast to the GOP’s truculence on taxes, the president has appeared reasonable, flexible and persistent in trying to get Republicans to “yes.” To the chagrin of many Democrats, he’s offered to cut $3 in federal spending for every $1 in new revenue. Obama is receptive to the idea of lowering tax rates, as long as some revenue is left over for cutting deficits, and last week even gave liberals chilblains by offering to put entitlement reform on the table.

In slapping away the President’s outstretched hand, the GOP seems to be in the grip of not one but two mass delusions.

The first is that Americans are groaning under crushing tax burdens that would make Pharaoh blush. But the federal tax take has sunk to just 15 percent of GDP, far below its usual average of 19 percent.

The second delusion is that failing to raise the debt ceiling might have no repercussions. On Fox News Sunday, Sen. Jim DeMint accused Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner of trying to scare Republicans into making a bad deal. “Secretary Geithner has been irresponsible. He’s playing Chicken Little here. The fact is that we will pay our debts if it’s the last dollar we have… We’re not going to default.”

DeMint’s logic apparently is this: Since tax revenues are sufficient to cover about 55-60 percent of what Washington spends, there will be plenty of money to pay our foreign creditors. There just won’t be nearly enough to finance federal programs but, who’ll miss them? One possible answer: Social Security recipients, whose checks are supposed to be mailed Aug. 3. Others include military personnel, federal employees, and all those families hoping to visit National Parks during their summer vacation.

When the public backlash comes, Republicans won’t be able to say they weren’t warned. Geithner broke it down clearly this weekend on NBC’s Meet the Press:

“Remember…we have to borrow now 40 cents for every dollar we spend…And every week starting the week of August 2, we have to go out and finance roughly $100 billion in maturing obligations of the government. We make 80 million checks a month to Americans, 55 million people on Social Security benefits, millions more Americans on veterans’ benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, people who supply our troops in combat. Eighty million checks a month.”

The imponderable here is the markets’ reaction to a failure to lift the debt ceiling. There’s a serious risk of higher interest rates, plunging confidence in the dollar and an even deeper freeze on job-creating investments in the U.S. economy.

Eric Cantor imagines the public is behind him on taxes. More likely, he’s saddling up to lead a fiscal reprisal of Picketts’ Charge.

Photo Credit: Republican Conference

Michael Mandel Featured in the Baltimore Sun

The thoughts of PPI’s Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel were highlighted in Baltimore Sun Columnist Jay Hancock’s recent piece on research and development investment.

“Two years ago Michael Mandel, then chief economist for Business Week magazine, wrote a cover story titled “The Failed Promise of Innovation in the U.S.” The piece blamed the lack of technology breakthroughs over the last decade as a factor in the 2008 financial collapse.

I asked Mandel, now chief economic strategist for the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington, whether the problem is getting worse.”

Read the full article here and check out Mandel’s recent brief on the FDA and innovation.

Wingnut Watch: Cut, Cap, and Pledge

As negotiations in Washington over a prospective debt limit increase stall and sputter, the process is not exactly getting an assist from Republican presidential candidates. With the exception of Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, the field is joining conservative activists demanding that congressional GOPers hold the line against any revenue increases as part of a solution in favor of huge domestic spending cuts. Romney hedged his bets by signing onto the notorious “cut, cap and balance” pledge to oppose any debt limit increase not associated with big immediate spending cuts, a permanent limitation of federal spending to a fixed (and much lower) percentage of GDP, and a balanced budget constitutional amendment with a supermajority requirement for tax increases. Using his pledge signature as cover, the former governor is refusing to comment on the specifics of negotiations.

On the other hand Michele Bachmann, who is surging in Iowa and other states, and has earned some grief for (so far) failing to sign the CCB pledge, is settling into her own hard line of unconditionally opposing any debt limit increase (a demand for spending cuts large enough to obviate the need for an increase in the limit). As we get closer to the first real event of the 2012 presidential cycle, the August 13 Iowa State GOP Straw Poll, you can expect the candidates competing there — Bachmann, Pawlenty, Cain and Paul — to get more emphatically shrill about prospects for a “betrayal” of conservatives by their purported leaders in Congress.

While Bachmann has run some risks by declining to sign the CCB pledge (especially the displeasure of South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, one of its most prominent sponsors), she wasted no time signing onto a very different and more controversial “pledge”: the “Marriage Vow” released last week by the Iowa social conservative group known as The FAMiLY LEADER. The “Vow” contains a host of radical “pro-family” commitments, from standard right-wing fare like total opposition to same-sex unions to more exotic positions such as tougher divorce laws, opposition to women serving in combat, a national effort to wipe out porn, and natalist support for “robust” child-bearing. The pledge also includes a preamble with even more controversial propositions like the claim that African-Americans under slavery had a stronger family structure than they do today, and arguments that it’s “anti-scientific” to believe there is a genetic basis for homosexuality.

The language about slavery set off a firestorm, which made The FAMiLY LEADER scramble to make revisions, and gave candidates other than Bachmann and Rick Santorum (another early signatory) a good excuse to hold off on taking the “Wedding Vow.” What makes the situation difficult for candidates is that the promulgator of the pledge, FAMiLY LEADER President Bob Vander Plaats, is a big wheel in Iowa GOP politics (he was co-chair of Mike Huckabee’s 2008 Iowa campaign, and leader of the successful 2010 effort to recall three judges who supported the state Supreme Court’s 2009 decision legalizing same-sex marriages). Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty (who hasn’t taken a position on the pledge) particularly lust for Vander Plaats’ support, or at least his neutrality.

Meanwhile, in the broader context of the Iowa battle, a new poll of likely caucus-goers from The Iowa Republican site confirms Michele Bachmann’s surge in the state, showing her moving ahead of Mitt Romney (whom she narrowly trailed in a recent Des Moines Register poll) by a 25 to 21 percent margin. The poll also had some much-needed good news for T-Paw after his sixth-place showing in the Register survey: TIR has him inching past Herman Cain into third place with an anemic but still better-than-usual 9 percent. Moreover, the poll gave both Bachmann and Pawlenty significantly better favorable-unfavorable ratings than Romney, who has a barely visible Iowa campaign and is not competing in the August 13 Straw Poll. Interestingly enough, the survey showed Bachmann doing well with all ideological subgroups in the Iowa GOP (perhaps due to her mostly autobiographical ads and speeches so far)– a situation that greater scrutiny of her platform and background may not sustain. If T-Paw is able to parlay his strong organization into at least a second-place finish in Ames, he has some reason to hope he could catch Bachmann by the time of the Caucuses as voters learn more about her long association with extremist causes.

On a more immediate note, voters in southern California are going to the polls today in a special election to choose a successor to retired Congresswoman Jane Harman. In this solidly Democratic district, the favorite all along has been Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn, who enjoys strong labor and party-establishment backing. But wealthy Tea Party Republican Craig Huey, who upset Democratic Secretary of State Deborah Bowen for a runoff spot in a May special election primary, has been running surprisingly well against Hahn in polls and in estimates of early voting. Hahn will probably still win. But in a very low-turnout scenario, an upset is possible, which would neutralize the Democratic optimism generated by a victory in a recent special congressional election in New York, and also perhaps indirectly validate a sexually and racially loaded web ad run by “independent” conservatives against Hahn widely viewed as the most offensive political ad since, well, forever.

Photo Credit: TalkMediaNews

The Price of Civility

Recently released polls have shown disappointing returns for Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, whose percentage of the vote has hovered around 3 percent since early May, and received no noticeable bump from his June 21 campaign announcement. It gets worse: Only 42 percent of Republicans actually know of Huntsman, 20 percent less than the average candidate. Huntsman’s poll number plateau lends credence to Washington Post Columnist Dana Milbank’s view that Huntsman and his amicable approach were doomed on arrival.

In a “normal” presidential cycle, Huntsman should be polling much better. His ability to test the president in an area of strength, foreign policy, and position as the most moderate candidate should resonate with a larger niche of independent voters allowed to participate in early state primaries like New Hampshire. But campaigning on the moral high road in this Republican Party nomination contest may come with a hefty toll.

Huntsman is mired support levels similar to Newt Gingrich, and has one of the lowest positive intensity scores (the percent strongly favorable minus the percent strongly unfavorable and gage of the “intensity of support among a candidate’s base of followers.”) out of any of the candidates at (+2). The positive intensity score is critical to building up a volunteer base that is eager to engage in critical but mechanical activities like phone banking, and fight harder at early manpower-driven campaign events like the Iowa caucuses.

Herman Cain, who is more in line with the Republican base, has similar recognition levels but higher intensity numbers at (+25). Cain’s fiery rhetoric, not just his policy, drives his positive intensity levels. Herman Cain‘s bombastic language underscores his policy, and reinforces his firebrand image and in-line with the base policies. Huntsman’s politeness pledge lacks the wherewithal to aggressively contrast his positions with the other contenders, coming off as bland and out-of-synch with the Republicans.

Civil campaigns have a three-part cycle: an initial surplus of press, followed by a drastic drop-off of publicity, ending with the candidate languishing in obscurity. The initial glut of press at the onset of their campaign seems like a severance package to compensate candidates for the minimum attention they receive after the initial surge.

Beyond reducing visibility, limited press also restricts a candidate’s number of defining moments. Each moment carries more weight in marking a candidate’s personality – Huntsman’s desire for civility has labeled him boring and uninteresting. Furthermore, the nature of a campaign drives the media’s branding. Huntsman’s tough-guy motorcycle doesn’t help shake his nice guy image and all the connotations and lack of attention such monikers bring. Here’s a striking figure: only five percent of the 42 percent Republicans that know of Huntsman support his candidacy strongly. That’s just 2 percent of all Republican voters overall. Rising above the fray in politics is an honorable notion, but like most things, it comes with a price.

Huntsman’s low recognition is a by-product of his polite campaign. Conflict drives newspapers and the press drives identification. Politeness just doesn’t generate any headlines.

Photo Credit: David Keller

Will Marshall Tackles Democrat Entitlement Anger in Politico’s Arena

PPI President Will Marshall today discussed the “Hill Democrats Entitlement Mentality” in a post for Politico’s Arena today.

“House liberals, on the other hand, want to use “protecting Medicare” as a cudgel against GOP opponents in next year’s elections. That’s understandable, but can Democrats really afford to torpedo prospects for long-term debt reduction to win a few marginal House districts?”

Read the full post here.

NEA vs. TFA

Simmering tensions between the nation’s largest teachers’ union and a highly acclaimed national service program boiled over this week. The National Education Association vowed to “publicly oppose Teach for America (TFA) contracts when they are used in Districts where there is no teacher shortage or when Districts use TFA agreements to reduce teacher costs, silence union voices, or as a vehicle to bust unions.”

Teach for America is a nonprofit organization that recruits graduates from leading universities to teach for two years in some of the nation’s most impoverished school districts. Study after study shows that TFA’s dedicated teachers are effective in lifting achievement levels among the poor and minority students they serve. Why would the NEA want to deprive our neediest kids of good teachers?

NEA member Marianne Bratsanos of Washington, who proposed the anti-TFA resolution, complained that the volunteer group undermines schools of education and accepts money from foundations and other funders who are hostile to unions. The key complaint, however, seems to be that TFA volunteers are displacing more experienced teachers, even in districts with no teacher shortages.

Full disclosure: I’m a TFA alum. You may discount my views accordingly, but the NEA’s indictment is very far from the reality I encountered on the ground teaching Language Arts to inner city kids in Charlotte, N.C.

TFA corps members fill vacancies in schools that many teachers want to avoid, or that are saddled with the least-skilled and effective teachers. Believe me, we don’t take jobs from good teachers who are making gains in student achievement. And it’s hard to see how TFA undermines schools of education. In fact, Teach for America has formed many successful partnerships with colleges of education to help train their recruits and provide ongoing development. TFA’s success in molding volunteers who bypass traditional education schools into good teachers may raise troublesome questions about the relevance and effectiveness of those schools, but whose fault is that?

Though green when I entered Teach for America in 2007, I quickly honed the requisite skills through classroom preparation, student teaching, and one-on-one time with my support staff. The first few months of actual teaching were difficult to say the least, but with the support and continuous development I received from TFA, my students demonstrated significant progress by the end of the year.

TFA isn’t anti-union, it’s pro-student. Its mission is to ensure that all children have a chance for an excellent education. It exists because there is a dearth of highly qualified and effective teachers in America’s poorest communities.

TFA members serve the lowest performing schools in 39 urban and rural regions. Teachers, known as corps members, commit to teach for two years to help end educational inequality. Applicants go through a rigorous application period, where approximately twelve percent of applicants are selected and around 4,500 first year teachers accept. Corps members begin their journey with five weeks of intensive training and are supervised by experienced teachers and support staff. TFA members are then provided with ongoing professional development and one-on-one support throughout their two years as teachers.

The Teaching as Leadership Model that Teach for America employs is different than the traditional training model used by many schools of education. Though many union members argue that the summer leadership institute is not the best way to insure excellent teaching, the proof is in the pudding.

In a 2010 study, Gary Henry and Charles Thompson found that TFA members had a greater impact on student success than teachers who graduated from a traditional school of education. A 2008 Urban Institute study likewise found that TFA teachers were more effective than other teachers in similar settings, including more experienced teachers and those certified in their field. Similarly, a NYC study concluded that TFA members were more effective in improving math and reading scores than those traditionally certified.

The RAND Institute has found that a five-year increase in teaching experience improved student achievement very little – less than one percentage point. Likewise, the level of education and the licensure scores held by a teacher had no effect on student achievement. Additionally, research has shown that corps members’ impact exceeds that of experienced and certified teachers in the same schools.

Policy Studies Associates, Inc. recently published a report that may explain why the NEA is kicking up such a fuss about Teach for America. “Ninety-five percent of the principals rated corps members as effective as other beginning teachers in terms of overall performance and impact on student achievement; sixty-six percent rated corps members as more effective than other beginning teachers, ninety-one percent of the principals reported that corps members’ training is at least as good as the training of other beginning teachers, sixty-three percent rated corps members’ training as better than that of other beginning teachers, and eighty-seven percent of the principals said they would hire a corps member again.”

In light of such evidence, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that what really rankles the NEA is competition, and worse, being shown up by the competition. Instead of trying to crush the competition, teachers’ unions ought to learn from it.

Here’s a thought for the NEA: why not work with Teach for America to develop ways to attract more talented college grads to teaching, and for that matter, encourage some of TFA’s two-year volunteers to go pro?

Photo Credit: Tulane Publications

Policy Brief: The Risks of Over-Regulating End-User Derivatives

The passage of the Dodd-Frank Act was a historic effort in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis to modernize and tighten federal oversight of the nation’s financial services sector.

Among these reforms were a variety of much-needed new rules to bring more transparency and accountability to the derivatives industry. The new law, for example, provides regulators with more power to regulate the over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivatives market, requires more derivatives to be traded on exchanges rather than in private transactions, and requires data collection to improve market transparency.

As sweeping as it is, this new regulatory framework for the derivatives industry is more a framework than a detailed set of rules, and there are many blanks for regulators to fill. As a consequence, policymakers must still be wary of unintended consequences as they implement the law.

A particular example deserving of this special attention is the pending regulations of so-called “end users” in the OTC derivatives market. No one doubts that the abuse of some forms of exotic derivatives contributed to the systemic risk that led to the 2008 crisis. But derivatives are an important tool used by major American manufacturing and service companies (“end users”) to manage and protect against risks—not create them. These derivatives contribute little—if anything—to systemic risk.

Read the entire policy brief.

Wingnut Watch: The Perry Proposition

The “invisible primary” of Republican presidential candidates positioning themselves to become the Wingnut alternative to Mitt Romney is now getting close to its first major landmarks: the “closing of the field” when Republicans stop fantasizing about late entries who will shake up the race, and the August 13 Iowa State GOP straw poll, which will likely end the campaigns of poorly financed also-rans who can’t show significant grassroots support in Iowa or other early states.

Although bored pundits will probably continue to offer implausible scenarios for late candidacies by Chris Christie or Jeb Bush right on through the autumn, the only real mystery left is whether Texas Gov. Rick Perry will enter the race. He will reportedly decide for or against by the end of this month.

Meanwhile, several campaigns are holding on by a thread, and will probably be liquidated (or reduced to a platform from which the candidates can make free debate appearances to sell their books or keep their names in the public eye) after the straw poll. The most obvious casualty of earlier events is Newt Gingrich, who never had much of a chance at the nomination even before a series of missteps chased off most of his staff. Rick Santorum’s all-abortion all-the-time candidacy hasn’t gone anywhere. Herman Cain is the candidate most likely to be “winnowed” in Ames. His earlier surge in support in the early states has subsided to a considerable extent. More importantly, his languorous campaign pace, reminiscent of 2008 candidate Fred Thompson, has frustrated his staff and supporters; in just the last couple of weeks, he’s lost his top staffers in both New Hampshire and Iowa. In the latter state, that couldn’t come at a worse time, when he needs the organizational heft to convert the cheers he generates with his stock speech into tangible support in the straw poll. His second quarter fundraising numbers, showing he raised just under $2.5 million, didn’t impress anybody.

The candidate most desperately in need of a strong showing in Ames is Tim Pawlenty, who continues to struggle in the polls and whose reported $4.2 million second-quarter haul was even less impressive than Cain’s, given T-Paw’s heavy expenses in Iowa. Anything other than a first or strong second-place finish in the straw poll could kill off Pawlenty entirely, eliminate the prospects of a “consensus” candidate who appeals equally to all of the GOP’s conservative factions, and set up a potentially protracted and divisive nomination contest between Romney and either Michele Bachmann or (if he runs) Rick Perry.

While a Perry candidacy excites a lot of observers, it remains a debatable proposition. Yes, on paper he looks formidable. He’s a candidate equally rooted in the Tea Party Movement and the Christian Right. He’s got a great economic “story” to tell, dubious as his claims really are to have generated Texas’ impressive (if generally low-wage) record of recent job growth. He’s considered good-looking by those who like the rugged Marlboro Man stereotype of masculinity. He’s a good stump speaker who enjoys campaigning far more than governing, and has no moral compunctions about serving up big platters of the rawest red meat. And he’s a proven fundraiser who has the important Republican Governors Association rolodex in his pocket.

On the other hand, a PPP poll just last week showed Perry losing a hypothetical general election contest to Barack Obama in his home state of Texas, performing worse than Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty or Herman Cain (and far worse than Mitt Romney). This sign that Perry has clay of feet in his cowboy boots could be a real problem, particularly if his message depicts him as the economic savior of the Lone Star State, whose residents would normally be expected to toss rose petals in his path to the White House.

Perry also has a timing problem. If he is to compete in the Iowa straw poll, he can’t delay his candidacy much longer. But announcing a campaign this month would significantly undermine the legitimacy of his much-ballyhooed August 6 prayer rally in Houston, dubbed “The Response,” which is reportedly intended to usher in a convergence of Christian Right support for a Perry candidacy. Getting in after Ames could be risky, since it could enable Michele Bachmann to become the celebrity national candidate of precisely the Tea Party/social conservative coalition that Perry would offer to lead.

Meanwhile, Bachmann is riding pretty high at the moment, though her own second-quarter fundraising numbers have yet to be revealed. She has a reputation as a champion fundraiser (she holds the all-time record for cup-rattling in a House race, having pulled in an astonishing $13 million for her 2010 re-election contest). Whatever she’s raised, it is unlikely to match Mitt Romney’s reported haul of just under $20 million. But it will almost certainly be more than her fellow Minnesotan T-Paw, who is presently struggling to get some right-wing leverage from association with their state’s current government shutdown.

All in all, the dynamics of the contest continue to pull the field even further to the Right, as Bachmann, Pawlenty and potentially Perry battle to become the anti-Romney in an atmosphere of partisan meta-conflict in Washington over the debt limit. The two dynamics, moreover, may be reinforcing each other: six candidates, including Romney and T-Paw, have now signed the maximalist “cut, cap and balance pledge” rejecting any debt limit increase that is not accompanied by deep cuts in domestic spending (without revenue measures), a cap on federal spending linked to a low percentage of GDP, and a balanced budget constitutional amendment that includes a super-majority requirement for tax increases. Bachmann is actually trying to outflank cut-cap-balance candidates on the right by demanding repeal of “ObamaCare” as a precondition for a debt limit increase. As we approach white-knuckle time in the shaping of the 2012 field, the GOP is spending little time worrying about how poorly it may be positioning itself to face Barack Obama.

Photo Credit: Iowa Politics