Balancing Innovation and Risk: The Case of Legalized Sports Betting

SUMMARY

The legalization of mobile sports betting in many states has led to widespread worries about negative financial, social, and emotional impacts of easy access to sports gambling that cannot be ignored by policymakers. In particular, problem gambling is an issue that needs to be monitored and addressed, including filling in education gaps in a new category of discretionary spending and ensuring that there are support resources for those affected by gambling disorders. We examine several aspects of the socioeconomic impact of sports gambling. First, we find that even as net spending on legal sports betting rose from $920 million in 2019 to $13.7 billion in 2024, overall spending on gambling has stayed flat as a share of consumer spending. Based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), gambling accounted for 1.04% of personal consumer expenditures in 2024, compared to 1.07% in 2017. Given the inherent uncertainty of economic statistics, that’s effectively no difference.

Second, we look at the impact of sports gambling on consumer finances. We find no sign of a tidal wave of bankruptcies or consumer credit downgrades in states that were early adopters of mobile sports betting. Indeed, quite the opposite: Early adopter states showed a 40% decline in consumer bankruptcies between 2019 and 2024, compared to a 34% decline nationally, and a 36% decline for all states which legalized mobile sports betting. When we compared state-level credit scores in 2019 and 2024, we found a 1.8% increase in credit scores for early adopter states, roughly the same as the national average.

Third, we make the case that legalized sports betting serves as an economic innovation that generates positive consumer benefits and costs akin to other discretionary “experiential” spending
categories such as foreign vacations, live entertainment, and appearance-enhancing surgery. We show that it’s not uncommon for consumers to take on debt to finance outlays in these areas, yet the government does not step in to control individual behavior.

Read the full report.

Some Thoughts on Homeownership, Credit Scores, and Policy Myopia

Credit scores have become an integral part of our financial lives. A great score can be used to leverage great deals — on loans, credit cards, insurance premiums, apartments, and cell phone plans. Bad scores hammer you into missing out or paying more. 

Making sure credit decisions are based on the best available information is absolutely key to ensuring accuracy and fairness. Keeping politics out of credit scoring is a must.

Which is why the pronouncement this summer by William Pulte, the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA), that he was going to allow lenders can now use Vantage 4.0 (a credit scoring model developed by the three major credit reporting bureaus — Experian, Transunion, and Equifax) to “lower the cost of credit checks,”  is both unusual and concerning.  

First, the agency FHFA is in the middle of transitioning the housing government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) from the FICO Classic credit score for each mortgage they purchase to using both FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0 credit scores. This change is mandated by law.

The Pulte proclamation seems to have skipped the normal regulatory process set forth under the Administrative Procedures Act (for example, the change was made without even an expedited notice-and-comment rulemaking), and also halted the shift from FICO Classic to FICO 10T — even though 10T is designed to provide lenders with a more accurate and dynamic assessment of credit risk by incorporating trended data such as recent payment activity. 

Second, the FHFA and the GSEs had already validated both VantageScore 4.0 and FICO 10T. Yet Pulte is only letting the GSEs use VantageScore 4.0 to be used (along with FICO Classic). Why, because supposedly, the historical data is still being collected for FICO 10T. 

But why would the federal government give one credit score the upper hand over another?  

We don’t know the answer, but one concern PPI noted when the issue of allowing for an alternative to FICO was first raised was the ownership of Vantage. At the time, proponents of Vantage argued that requiring the use of VantageScore 4.0 was needed to provide more competition and innovation in credit scoring. More competition can bring down costs and spur investment and innovation. But the problem is that VantageScore is owned by the three credit bureaus (Experian, Trans Union, and Equifax). Whether intentionally or not, the credit bureaus have a natural bias in favor of VantageScore 4.0 over FICO. This is why PPI has recommended that the three credit bureaus sell their stake in VantageScore.  

Third, the cost of credit scores is a tiny fraction of the overall closing costs. And as economist Douglas Holtz-Eakin noted, there is no readily available information on what VantageScore charges and how its price compares to FICO.    

Furthermore, the Pulte announcement could actually lead to higher costs for homebuyers. Investors may price in any perceived risk if they think that mortgage originators made the loan with the least favorable credit score. 

There are serious ideas to address this problem that members of both parties will have to make, such as reducing barriers to manufactured housing. The Pulte announcement on VantageScore is not one of them.  

Manno for Philanthropy Daily: A Donor Playbook for Local Workforce Renewal

The promise of upward mobility remains unmet for many of America’s workers. Within the labor market, frustrations abound, for workers and employers alike:

  • Employers face labor shortages while capable workers remain locked in low-wage
  • Workers without college degrees and other familiar credentials can’t translate their skills into the parlance of employers who use recognizable credentials to screen for jobs.
  • Education and training programs and placement agencies struggle to find jobs for their graduates because they don’t know which workplace career trajectories lead to upward mobility.

Failing to resolve these and other stumbling blocks is especially frustrating since today’s “big data” creates more information about employers, workers, and opportunities than ever before. Today’s “challenge isn’t gathering more information—it’s making sense of the information we have and putting it to work,” according to the Burning Glass Institute report Jobs That Mobilize: A Data‑Driven Playbook for America’s Workforce.

The Jobs That Mobilize report describes a structured, six-step framework and process for bringing together community stakeholders to promote worker upward mobility. Donors can use the report to take a lead role in marshaling partnerships, supporting evidence-based strategies, and building community capacity and structures to align education, training, employer needs, and worker aspirations. They can create cross-sector partnerships, invest in innovation, and foster system-wide action on workforce development issues.

Read more in Philanthropy Daily.

Ahead of its 90th Birthday, PPI Offers Innovative Blueprint to Secure Social Security’s Future

WASHINGTON — Ninety years ago this Thursday, President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act into law, creating a promise that American workers could count on a measure of dignity and financial security in old age. But changing demographics, decades of political neglect, and recent policy missteps have put that promise in jeopardy, with 24% benefit cuts automatically taking effect before the end of the next president’s term if Congress fails to act.

To mark this anniversary and confront the crisis head-on, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today released “Reform That Rewards Work: A New Vision for Strengthening Social Security’s Intergenerational Compact,” a sweeping proposal to rescue the nation’s most important retirement program while making it fairer, more sustainable, and more pro-work.

Authored by Ben Ritz, PPI’s Vice President of Policy Development, and Nate Morris, Fiscal Policy Fellow at PPI’s Center for Funding America’s Future, the plan would restructure Social Security’s benefit formula, modernize eligibility rules, and raise revenue with a more progressive, growth-friendly revenue system. The proposal’s key features include:

  • New “Work Credit” Benefit Formula: Calculate benefits based on years worked, not lifetime earnings, ensuring a low-income worker and their higher-earning boss receive the same benefit for the same number of working years.

  • Targeted Retirement Age Adjustments: Gradually increase the early and maximum benefit ages to reflect longer lifespans, with safeguards for lower-income and long-career workers.

  • Better Cost-of-Living Adjustments: Change COLAs so they no longer overstate inflation, paired with a “longevity bump” for the oldest retirees most at risk of outliving savings.

  • Fairer Spousal and Survivor Benefits: Strengthen protections for widows and widowers while capping excessive subsidies to high-income couples.

  • Generationally Fair Financing: Use a mix of progressive income tax reforms and consumption taxes to spread costs more evenly across generations, rather than using regressive payroll tax increases to make working Americans foot the whole bill for fixing a problem created by previous generations.

“Many Social Security proposals cling to the current system but break the historically important link between contributions and benefits,” said Ritz. “Our plan is unique in that it actually strengthens Social Security’s premise as a benefit people earn through work, all while improving fiscal sustainability and reducing poverty.”

According to independent modeling, the plan would close Social Security’s shortfall through a roughly even mix of benefit reforms and tax changes. Top earners would see modest benefit reductions roughly on par with those already projected to occur under current law, but many low-income and long-career workers would receive higher benefits, leading to substantial poverty reductions for older Americans.

“Any serious plan to save Social Security will involve tough tradeoffs,” said Morris. “What makes ours different is that it balances the books without balancing them on the backs of working Americans. This is the kind of radically pragmatic reform Washington needs.”

Read and download the report here.

Launched in 2018, the Progressive Policy Institute’s Center for Funding America’s Future works to promote a fiscally responsible public investment agenda that fosters robust and inclusive economic growth. To that end, the Center develops fiscally responsible policy proposals to strengthen public investments in the foundation of our economy, modernize health and retirement programs to reflect an aging society, transform our tax code to reward work over wealth, and put the national debt on a downward trajectory.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us @PPI.

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Media Contact: Ian OKeefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Reform That Rewards Work: A New Vision for Strengthening Social Security’s Intergenerational Compact

For 90 years, Social Security has served as the foundation upon which people plan for retirement in the United States. But changing demographics and decades of policy mistakes have put this vital program on unstable financial footing. Just seven years from now — before the end of the next president’s term — the program will face a crisis if no action is taken. Policymakers are running out of time to prevent disaster and give Americans the retirement security they deserve.

At its conception, Social Security was designed to be an “earned benefit” — workers pay a dedicated payroll tax on wages up to a certain level, and once these workers reach retirement age, they receive benefits to replace some fraction of the wages upon which they were taxed. The benefit formula is progressive in the sense that workers with lower incomes receive a higher replacement rate for the wages on which they paid payroll taxes, but people with higher lifetime earnings ultimately receive higher benefits. To reinforce the link between contributions and benefits, an internal “trust fund” was established to ensure that spending on benefits would track payroll taxes over time.

But this structure has broken down due to a combination of demographic and policy changes, and Social Security now spends significantly more than it raises in revenue each year. The program’s trust fund system allows Social Security to temporarily run deficits commensurate with the savings generated by past surpluses. But in 2032, Social Security’s Old Age and Survivor Insurance (OASI) trust fund is projected to be depleted, and benefits will be automatically cut by 24% to match the program’s incoming revenues. Even if lawmakers were to combine the OASI fund with Social Security’s Disability Insurance fund, they would only delay insolvency by less than two years.

The prospect of such a steep and sudden benefit cut makes it difficult for current workers to plan for retirement and risks throwing vulnerable seniors into poverty. But simply continuing to fund scheduled benefits without any changes, whether by raising payroll taxes or by borrowing money to finance Social Security’s deficits, would impose an unfair burden on working Americans to solve a problem they did not create.

Unfortunately, today’s policymakers are not only failing to solve this problem — they are actively making it worse. Recent legislation has increased Social Security’s shortfall through unfunded benefit expansions and tax cuts, both moving up the date of insolvency and increasing the size of automatic cuts that will happen when that occurs. The most popular proposals in Congress for “addressing” Social Security’s insolvency rely on gimmicks that would strain the link between contributions and benefits while exposing the federal budget to massive fiscal risk.

If policymakers are unable or unwilling to make the current Social Security system sustainable in a way that’s consistent with its founding principles, then now is the time to reimagine it from the ground up. PPI believes that lawmakers should take this opportunity to reassess Social Security’s structure and build a new model that is fairer, more pro-work, and more sustainable for the future.

Through a groundbreaking new formula developed by PPI, we propose that Social Security award benefits based on the number of years someone worked, rather than their lifetime earnings. This innovative structure cements Social Security’s status as an “earned benefit” but is far more progressive and affordable than the current formula. A low-income worker and their higher-earning boss would get the same benefit if they put in the same amount of work, and anyone who works for at least 20 years would receive a benefit that keeps them out of poverty. Parents would also receive up to five years of credit for caregiving to reflect both their hard work and their contributions to future Social Security solvency.

Our comprehensive package of benefit reforms also makes a number of other changes to improve the fairness and sustainability of Social Security spending. We propose increasing Social Security’s retirement ages to keep pace with rising life expectancies, while preserving a special early retirement age for lower-earning workers, who have not experienced the same gains in longevity. We would change cost-of-living adjustments to more accurately reflect inflation but boost benefits for the oldest beneficiaries who are most at risk of outliving their savings. We would reform spousal and survivor benefits to better protect widow(er)s from falling into poverty. And we would make the recently passed “Social Security Fairness Act” live up to its name with fair treatment of people who work both in and out of the public sector.

Under PPI’s plan, beneficiaries in the top fifth of the lifetime earnings distribution would absorb cuts relative to the current formula that are, on average, comparable to the ones already slated to occur under current law. At the same time, the majority of beneficiaries would see no reduction in their monthly benefit, and many low-income or long-career workers would even receive greater benefits than they could receive under the current formula. Altogether, PPI’s proposed reforms would close half of the program’s shortfall over the next 30 years through benefit changes while reducing old-age poverty.

PPI would close the remainder of Social Security’s shortfall through new revenue. Under the current system, in which benefits are based on a worker’s contributions, the only structurally coherent way to raise revenue is by increasing the payroll tax. But the payroll tax is regressive and depresses the wages of working Americans. By transitioning to a system that awards benefits based on years of work rather than tax contributions, there is an opportunity to transition to a more progressive and economically efficient funding structure.

PPI’s framework proposes comprehensive changes to federal payroll and income taxes paired with broad-based consumption taxes that spread the cost of fixing the nation’s fiscal challenges fairly among all Americans. We would also reform the use of trust-fund accounting to prevent structural deficits from threatening to impose another big benefits cliff in the future.

Taken together, the proposals in this blueprint offer a robust framework for radically pragmatic Social Security reform that is both generationally and politically balanced. PPI realizes that any plan that reduces scheduled benefits or increases taxes on anyone but the ultra-rich will nevertheless be politically challenging to enact. The mathematical reality, however, is that any plan to rescue Social Security will require some combination of these difficult choices. And the longer policymakers wait to admit this, the more painful the solutions will become. Now is the time to address Social Security’s shortfall in a thoughtful way that is fair to working Americans and retirees alike, giving both groups retirement security they can depend on.

Read the full report.

 

Ritz for InsideSources: Work requirements increase bureaucracy more than accountability

When Republicans were looking for ways to reduce the cost of their One Big Beautiful Bill, one of the first offsets they incorporated was a federal work requirement for Medicaid.

Proponents claimed this “common-sense” policy would grow the economy by increasing employment and cut wasteful spending on “lazy,” able-bodied people who chose not to seek work.

However, in the states that have tried them, Medicaid work requirements did little to boost employment. Instead, they merely created complex layers of reporting and verification that made it difficult for people to maintain coverage, even if they were still eligible for coverage or would qualify for an exemption from work requirements.

Read more in Inside Sources.

Five More Problems With the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’

As Republicans worked their way through the budget reconciliation process this year, PPI analyzed the most harmful features of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) they eventually passed: increasing budget deficits by upwards of $4 trillion over the coming decade, regressively redistributing resources from the poorest Americans to the wealthiest, and undermining macroeconomic stability. But while these significant flaws have been widely reported, OBBBA is also littered with special interest giveaways and other problems that have received relatively less coverage. Here are five additional ways in which Trump’s signature legislative achievement is even worse than you may have realized:

1. Encourages Inaction on Reducing SNAP Error Rates

Before the bill’s passage, the federal government would pay for nearly all SNAP benefits. But under OBBBA, states will now have to pay an escalating share of SNAP costs, depending on how high their error rate is. This plan was a major sticking point for Senator Lisa Murkowski, whose vote they needed to pass the bill. Her home state of Alaska has the highest error rate in the nation, at 25%. To secure her support, Republican leaders tried to just exempt her state entirely from the cost-sharing requirements. However, after the parliamentarian ruled that this did not comply with the rules of reconciliation, Republicans decided upon a different strategy. In their new plan, any state that in 2025 or 2026 has an error rate above 13.3% would be exempt for up to two years from the requirement after its 2028 implementation.

In the short term, this provision does nothing to incentivize states to improve their SNAP error rates and, in fact, creates a perverse incentive to increase them. There are already nine states (plus the District of Columbia) above the 13.5% threshold, with another 11 only a few percentage points away. Under the new requirement, states already above the threshold have little reason to do anything to lower their error rates in the near term, while those on the margin might be incentivized to push themselves over the threshold to delay the requirement.

Even when the requirement is finally in place for every state, the law’s other changes to SNAP will hamper efforts to effectively reduce payment error rates. For example, OBBBA changes the federal government’s share of administrative costs to 25% — down from 50% under prior law — meaning that states now have to shoulder increased administrative costs associated with tracking payments, at the same time that they are being told to reduce them.

2. Expands Federal Aid for Wealthy Farmers 

While the law makes large cuts to the nutrition safety net for low-income Americans, it expands the agricultural subsidies for wealthy farmers. Federal farm subsidies were already extremely regressive before the passage of this bill, with many programs’ benefits flowing mostly to the largest and wealthiest farms, which have little risk of financial failure. For example, roughly 77% of the total subsidies in the Federal Crop Insurance Program (the largest federal program) go to the top 20% of farms by crop sales.

Republicans made these subsidies even more regressive. OBBBA further increases premium support for Crop Insurance by 3-5%, offering farmers both increasingly generous premium subsidies and coverage. The law also substantially expands Price Loss Coverage, a program that makes payments to farmers when the market price of a covered crop goes below a government “reference price,” increasing reference prices for various crops between 10-20% and increasing the likelihood that farmers receive a payout. Finally, the law increases the cap on maximum payouts farmers can collect from various agricultural programs from its previous $125,000 to $155,000. At the same time, Republicans defeated a bipartisan proposal that would have meant-tested benefits and ensured that more support went to struggling farmers. In sum, the bill’s many agricultural program expansions added nearly $66 billion to the bill’s cost without making any attempt at fundamental reform.

3. Turns Back the Clock on American Energy

To offset a small portion of its new spending, OBBBA repeals the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) green energy credits. But in an effort to retain support from battleground Republicans worried about ongoing projects in their state or district, the law nominally retains some of the credits for an additional few years. However, under the law’s new rules on “prohibited foreign entities,” these credits could become functionally impossible to claim, even if they remain on the books. Prohibited foreign entity rules are intended to prevent firms in nations such as China, Iran or North Korea from participating in critical supply chains or benefitting from government subsidies. While these rules have existed since the passage of the IRA, OBBBA made them far more onerous.

A company seeking to claim the credits will now be required to verify a far more expansive set of contracted firms, suppliers, and debt holders than ever before to ensure that they are not owned or operated even in part by a prohibited foreign entity. For companies that operate with long and complex supply systems, the costs of doing so could prove prohibitive at best. In addition, the law’s many vague definitions leave substantial leeway for the administration to write the rules in ways that are even more restrictive — something they explicitly promised to do at passage and have already begun to implement.

While hobbling clean energy incentives, OBBBA supercharges subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuel producers. The bill opens up more federal land for oil and gas drilling, while decreasing the royalties that fossil fuel companies must pay to do so. Oil and gas companies received a new break, allowing them to exempt drilling costs from their income, which makes them practically exempt from the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax. Coal producers also received a new tax break to make metallurgical coal, which is used in the production of steel, despite the fact that it is not used in U.S. steelmaking and is typically exported overseas.

These policies will make energy both less clean and more expensive for American households. According to one analysis of the law, its energy provisions alone will increase costs for the typical American household by up to $192 while cutting the deployment of clean energy in half over the next 10 years.

4. Funds Private Schools Using Taxpayer Dollars

 The bill makes permanent and creates new tax benefits that will almost exclusively benefit private schools and the families that attend them. One example is the expansion of 529 college savings accounts, which disproportionately benefit the affluent households that have the most disposable income to save and are in the higher tax brackets that gain the most from its tax-free growth. OBBBA permanently extends a provision enacted in 2017 that allows parents to use 529s for elementary and secondary education tuition and expenses. But by doing nothing to address the notoriously regressive nature of 529s, this change merely helps wealthy parents pay for their child’s private school tuition tax-free.

In addition, OBBBA creates a new benefit to further funnel taxpayer resources to private schooling. Donations to “scholarship-granting institutions” – intermediary organizations that fund vouchers for students to attend private schools – will now receive a dollar-for-dollar tax credit on donations up to $1,700, meaning that a donation to these groups is essentially fully reimbursed by the federal government. This goes far beyond the income deduction granted to other charitable donations, giving private schools a massive tax advantage over other groups — such as churches, cancer research centers, or food banks — by making the donation essentially cost nothing. In addition, the credit has few guardrails to prevent abuse or even target those who would most benefit. For example, student eligibility is tied to 300% of an area’s median income, which for a family of four in many metro areas is nearly $500,000. Rather than help a low-income family pay for private schooling, the benefit could merely give a tax benefit for wealthy children who would have paid for private school anyway.

5. Strains State Budgets

In addition to blowing up the federal budget, OBBBA also places an enormous strain on state governments. The bill’s deep federal cuts to core safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP, while nominally saving money for the federal government, mostly just push those costs onto states. According to the National Governors Association, the law’s cuts to these two programs alone would leave states with roughly $111 billion in increased costs to absorb. Most states have balanced budget requirements and operate on narrow margins, meaning that they are not equipped to handle a shock of this size without sharp benefit cuts or tax increases. As a result, Medicaid coverage could shrink, food assistance could be cut, and program administration will suffer.

The cuts will also impact state budgets in indirect ways. For example, the federal school lunch program allows communities to qualify if over a quarter of their students are enrolled in federal aid programs like SNAP or Medicaid. But if OBBBA cuts push enough families off those programs, these schools will lose eligibility, jeopardizing food access for children and requiring states to fill in the gap to ensure those children still have access to meals. Moreover, the bill’s substantial cuts to green energy credits will imperil infrastructure projects and other economic activity that would have brought tax revenue to states.

Read the full piece here.

Weinstein Jr. for Forbes: 5 Reasons Trump Should Think Twice About Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell

It’s no secret that Donald Trump does not like how Jerome Powell is managing the Fed and monetary policy. Despite nominating Powell for the job of Fed Chair in 2017, the President lambasts Powell (who Trump has nicknamed Mr. Too Late) every time the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee meets and doesn’t cut interest rates.

But President Trump should think again if he believes getting rid of Powell will get him what he wants. While the president is desperate for the Fed to cut interest rates, firing Powell before his term ends in eight months is no guarantee that rates would drop, and his departure would also likely rattle the financial markets.

Read more in Forbes.

Passage of ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’ Renders Republican Deficit Hawks Extinct

Republicans have sent their “One Big Beautiful Bill” to President Trump’s desk and it’s hard to overstate the consequences. Not only will the bill be one of the most regressive transfers of wealth from society’s poorest to its richest in recent memory, but it will also add trillions of dollars to our national debt and hurt our economy. By passing this obscene budget-busting bill with near-unanimous support from their members in Congress, Republicans have proven that their party’s deficit hawks have gone extinct.

According to analysis from the Yale Budget Lab, the bill’s deep cuts to safety-net programs such as SNAP and Medicaid will reduce annual incomes for the bottom 20% of Americans by roughly $700 per person. But the savings from these cuts won’t be used to pay down the national debt or improve the programs for the people who need them most — rather, they will help offset tax cuts that will increase average after-tax incomes for individuals in the top 1% by roughly $30,000. The bill also guts pro-growth investments in the clean energy transition while propping up coal production and other conservative special interests with new giveaways, such as expansive new aid for wealthy farmers and large tax deductions for whaling boats.

Despite the bill’s large cuts, it would add roughly $4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years.  Moreover, if ostensibly “temporary” policies in the bill are eventually made permanent without offset — as Republicans have made clear they had no trouble doing when writing this bill— the cost would swell to $5.5 trillion, making it more expensive than every COVID stimulus bill combined. This is not only the most expensive bill ever passed using the filibuster-proof reconciliation process, it is also the first one to permanently increase budget deficits outside the 10-year window. This unprecedented outcome was only possible because Senate Republicans effectively invoked the “nuclear option” to blow up budget enforcement mechanisms, which will open the floodgates for future Congresses to add trillions more to the national debt with barebones majorities.

The explosion of federal debt will have lasting consequences for Americans. In the short term, deficit spending by the federal government will increase by up to $632 billion in a single year, putting upward pressure on inflation rates that have remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Increased government borrowing will also put upward pressure on already elevated interest rates, making everything from mortgages to car loans more expensive for ordinary families. Over the long term, higher rates will make it more expensive for businesses to finance new investments, slowing innovation and job creation. The federal government already spends roughly a trillion dollars each year on interest payments – more than it spends on national defense or Medicare. Now those costs will grow even faster, putting them on track to rival Social Security as the single-largest line item in the federal budget within 20 years. Instead of being used to fund investments in America’s future, taxpayer dollars will be almost exclusively used to pay for previous obligations.

Perhaps what is most remarkable is that this massive assault on our country’s fiscal integrity was only made possible by the people pretending to be its loudest defenders. For years, self-identified “deficit hawks” in the House GOP conference repeatedly called the deficit an “existential threat.” And even though they relied on completely fake growth assumptions to argue that $2.5 trillion of tax cuts would pay for themselves, these representatives insisted they would not support legislation that included any additional tax cuts without offset. They went so far as to get a commitment from House Speaker Mike Johnson that he would step down if he passed a bill that crossed this red line. Yet when the Senate sent them a bill that blatantly violated their agreement, these “fiscal hawks” quickly folded under pressure and rubber-stamped it.

Compare that to what happened just four years ago under the Biden administration. President Biden’s full “Build Back Better” agenda, while no model of fiscal responsibility, would have added less than $3 trillion to budget deficits over the first 10 years if it had been permanently enacted. Even though they used budget gimmicks to do it, Democratic deficit hawks in the House ensured the reconciliation bill advancing this agenda was scored as roughly deficit-neutral under traditional accounting. And when Democratic deficit hawks in the Senate forced party leaders to strip out those gimmicks, the bill eventually became something that actually reduced deficits. While deficit hawks may be endangered within the Congressional Democratic Party, today it is clear they are functionally extinct on the Republican side.

Deeper Dive: 

Fiscal Fact: 

As President Trump’s chaotic and destructive economic policies have shaken investor confidence in the first half of 2025, the U.S. dollar has lost over 10% of its value relative to foreign currencies — the worst such decline in more than 50 years. A weaker dollar results in more expensive imports, lower spending power when traveling internationally, and higher borrowing costs for both the American people and their government.

Other Fiscal News:

More from PPI and the Center for Funding America’s Future:

Senate Republicans Go Nuclear to Blow Up the National Debt

Senate Republicans on Monday took the dangerous step of “going nuclear” to pass their One Big Beautiful Bill in violation of the rules governing the filibuster-proof reconciliation process — and the fallout will add trillions of dollars to the national debt.

The reconciliation process, which was designed to fast-track policies needed to help Congress hit its budget targets, does not allow lawmakers to increase deficits outside the 10-year scoring window. These rules have always been enforced by measuring how enacting provisions in the legislation would affect the federal budget relative to a “current law baseline,” which is a scenario defined in statute and generally assumes laws are left unchanged. Senate rules require 60 votes to waive this restriction. 

Republicans couldn’t find a politically palatable way to pay for the trillions of dollars in tax cuts they wanted to make permanent, so they instead decided to make those tax cuts appear free by scoring against a “current policy” baseline, which assumes every policy in effect today is extended in perpetuity — even if the law as written would have them expire. But it gets worse: to enact new tax cuts without paying for them, Senate Republicans scheduled those provisions to expire within the 10-year window and scored them as temporary. The result is a Frankenstein scorekeeping system in which no consistent accounting is used, and legislation is assumed to cost whatever the majority wishes it did. 

While the Senate GOP’s “official” score of the bill using this Frankenstein accounting shows they would reduce deficits, traditional scoring against the current law baseline would show it adding more than $4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years (including higher interest payments) — and the cost would swell to $5.5 trillion if all the “temporary” provisions were made permanent. Notably, if the bill were measured in a way that treated the scheduled expirations of both new and existing policies consistently, it would violate the rules of reconciliation by permanently increasing deficits relative to either a current policy or a current law baseline. 

The Senate’s parliamentarian, who is responsible for interpreting the chamber’s rules, almost certainly would rule against the GOP’s attempt to use their Frankenstein score for enforcement purposes. Any effort to circumvent the parliamentarian’s official interpretation of the rules – whether by firing her, overruling her, or formally changing the 60-vote supermajority requirement with just 51 votes — would be invoking a “nuclear option” that fundamentally changes the character of the Senate. 

Senate Republicans insist they found an alternative to going nuclear by asserting the Senate Budget Committee chairman has unilateral authority to determine scores — something they argue Senate Democrats did in their 2022 budget resolution. But the two situations are not remotely the same: Senate Democrats used their authority to consistently assume discretionary spending for both the IRS and Head Start continued at baseline levels, when the original CBO score was inconsistent. Moreover, Democrats made sure the move was blessed by the parliamentarian ahead of time, whereas Republicans actively prevented the parliamentarian from making any ruling. 

The fact that Republicans prevented the parliamentarian from weighing in before voting to break their own rules with a simple majority vote, rather than overruling her directly, is a distinction without a difference. Republicans have gone nuclear with their chicanery and destroyed the Senate’s budget enforcement mechanisms.

The fallout will radiate throughout fiscal policy for years to come. Not only will the national debt be up to $5.5 trillion larger 10 years from now than it would be without the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” but there will be little to stop future Congresses from doing the same thing that Republicans did this week: adding trillions more to the debt while claiming they are doing the opposite.

GOP’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Would Undermine Economic Stability

Much has been written about the great harm Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) would do to the federal government’s finances and the financial well-being of low-income Americans. But less appreciated is how adding trillions of dollars to the deficit during a time of high price pressures, and making major cuts to safety-net programs that help cushion the economy during downturns, would undermine economic stability.  

When the country enters a recession and demand from the private sector drops, deficit-financed spending is an essential tool governments use to help fill the void and restore the economy to full strength. Conversely, policymakers should rein in deficits to prevent inflation and restore the country’s fiscal reserve when the economy has recovered. Last year, the economy grew at a healthy 2.4% annual rate. Although President Trump’s counterproductive trade policies have threatened to reverse this trend, the nation’s unemployment rate has so far remained stable around 4.2% — a historically low level. Meanwhile, the inflation rate remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target after years of rising prices. Normally, this would be the perfect time for Congress to cut deficits, clamp down on inflationary pressures, and put debt on a sustainable path.

But despite campaigning against the fiscal excesses and inflationary policies of the Biden administration, Republicans’ OBBB pours fuel on the fire by pumping trillions of dollars into the economy when they’re not needed. In addition to extending the already-unaffordable tax cuts passed in President Trump’s first term, this bill tacks on expensive new provisions such as eliminating taxes on overtime and tips. Moreover, many of these provisions are temporary, supercharging the short-term impact on our deficit at precisely the time when our nation needs the opposite: nearly three-fourths of the House bill’s roughly $3 trillion deficit increase would occur in just the first four years after passage.

Yet in addition to sabotaging the government’s ability to fight inflation now, OBBB would also make it more difficult for the government to fight future economic downturns. Pointlessly piling on debt now can make it harder for the government to borrow more during a recession when it’s actually needed. And some of the few policies Republicans have included to reduce the cost of the bill would undermine programs that are most helpful in supporting the economy through those recessions, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). 

SNAP is a strong “automatic stabilizer” because spending on benefits increases automatically when the U.S. economy slips into recession, as falling incomes cause more people to become eligible for support. An integral feature of SNAP is that administrators may also waive the program’s work requirements when an area “does not have a sufficient number of jobs,” which often occurs during a recession. Under federal rules, various geographic areas can demonstrate their eligibility for these waivers through several criteria, including averages of unemployment rates, eligibility for special unemployment benefits, and more, ensuring that benefits are not stalled when needed the most. 

OBBB removes this flexibility. States would only be able to request waivers for counties, while the only acceptable metric to prove a weak labor market would be an unemployment rate above 10%. For context: During the worst of the Great Recession, the national unemployment rate only hit 10% in a single month, while 40% of counties never reached that threshold at all. In addition, the House bill includes new cost-sharing requirements for states, which would require states to pay up to 25% of SNAP’s cost depending on the state’s payment error rate (the Senate has proposed limiting cost-sharing to 15% in its version of the bill). 

Although reducing improper payments is certainly an admirable goal, this legislation undermines that effort by cutting federal support for SNAP administrative costs. And taken together, OBBB’s changes would be especially detrimental during recessions. Because most states are legally not permitted to run budget deficits, they are forced to make painful budget cuts when revenues fall during downturns. At the same time, payment error rates for SNAP and other similar programs tend to rise as states scramble to process a new wave of applications. Thus, the GOP cost-sharing requirements would force states to shoulder a growing share of SNAP costs when they can least afford it, likely leading to spending cuts that prolong recessions. 

Republicans might claim that these fears are overblown because Congress is free to change SNAP’s waiver and cost-sharing requirements during a crisis (as it has done in the past). However, requiring Congress to pass legislation to unlock SNAP leaves the program vulnerable to political gridlock, and undermines its ability to automatically stabilize the economy. Moreover, if these requirements are suspended during future recessions, they will fail to generate the savings that Republicans claim will pay for their costly tax cut and make the bill’s deficit impact that much worse. By piling on debt during a time of high prices and low unemployment, while making it needlessly more difficult to fight future downturns when the situation is reversed, OBBB undercuts any argument one could make that Republicans are the party of fiscal responsibility and stable economic growth. 

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The tax portion of the Senate’s reconciliation plan would cost $4.2 trillion over 10 years — roughly $500 billion more than the House’s legislation. However, if all the tax policies in both bills were made permanent, the Senate version would cost $400 billion less than the House bill (which would cost $5.2 trillion over 10 years). Importantly, the Senate bill’s price tag is expected to grow once Senate Republicans reach a deal to increase the cap on the state and local tax deduction, and none of these cost estimates include additional interest on the debt that the legislation would rack up.

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“Trump Accounts” Are a Promising Start, But Flaws Remain

Although Republicans’ “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) remains deeply problematic as a package, one of its few positive provisions would create individual savings accounts for American children with many similarities to a policy proposed by PPI earlier this year. Currently known as “Trump Accounts,” these investment vehicles would provide every child born between 2025 and 2028 with a tax-deferred account and an initial $1,000 seed contribution from the federal Treasury. The proposal is a surprisingly good first step towards helping America’s youth build wealth and access opportunity, but it needs improvements to fully achieve its policy goals.

Children born into low-wealth families typically start life at a significant disadvantage, lacking both financial resources and access to other tools that promote long-term economic security. Meanwhile, their high-income peers can often rely on family to get ahead — helping them to pay for college, buy a home, or make lucrative professional connections. Proposals to establish investment accounts for children aim to address this gap by giving every child a foundation on which to build a more stable financial future.

Trump Accounts would make some limited progress towards this goal due to several good design features. First, the program is nearly universal: nearly all American children born between 2025 and 2028 would be eligible to receive a one-time $1,000 contribution into a tax-deferred investment account, which reduces the administrative hurdles of more complex eligibility criteria. The accounts would be invested into broad index funds, which avoids both the risk of speculative investments and the limitations of investing only in government bonds. Limiting withdrawals before age 30 to activities such as higher education, homeownership, or starting a business encourages beneficiaries to use funds for building wealth or expanding economic opportunities. Lastly, by subjecting qualified withdrawals to capital gains taxes — which only apply to individuals who have annual incomes over $63,000 and couples who earn twice that amount — policymakers prevent these accounts from becoming a regressive tax shelter that primarily benefits wealthy families. 

But while they are a credible start, Trump Accounts fall short in several critical ways. Although the accounts provide an initial government contribution to all children, they offer no mechanism to supplement savings for low-income families, who are the least likely to have additional funds to contribute to the account. Therefore, it provides the same amount of support to low-income children, who need it the most, as it does to wealthy children, who don’t need it at all. Furthermore, the accounts lack any material support to help account holders build financial literacy and other skills needed to grow modest account balances into long-term wealth. 

Perhaps the biggest flaw is that there is very little reason under current law for families to put additional contributions into Trump Accounts, given the existence of other savings accounts with greater tax advantages. For example, 529 plans are savings accounts that offer generous contribution limits and completely tax-free growth if withdrawals are used for education. Trump accounts, on the other hand, only delay taxes on the sale of assets until money is withdrawn from the account. As long as families can contribute to 529s, there is no incentive to use or save with the relatively less tax-advantaged Trump accounts.

These flaws could all be mitigated by incorporating more elements of the Child Opportunity Accounts (COAs) previously proposed by PPI. Like Trump Accounts, COAs would start with a seed contribution at birth, but go further by providing ongoing, income-based contributions throughout a child’s life. By the time they reach adulthood, a low-income child would have tens of thousands of dollars saved in their account — compared to just a few thousand in a Trump Account. 

COAs also incorporate financial education directly into the account structure to help beneficiaries get the most bang for their buck. Account portals would include information on investing, budgeting, and other financial management topics to help owners build up their knowledge of basic concepts. Before beneficiaries can access funds at younger ages, they would be required to complete a basic financial literacy assessment. This simple requirement ensures that young adults have the tools they need to not just wisely use their account savings, but also grow them over time. 

Policymakers could both offset the cost of additional supplemental contributions (or other provisions of OBBB) and make the accounts more useful by phasing out the use of 529 plans, which PPI proposed in a comprehensive budget blueprint last year. Because the taxes from which 529 accounts are exempt only apply to higher-income households, and because the highest-income households would pay a higher rate, the tax benefit of 529s is quite regressive: more than 70% of tax benefits go to households in the top 7% of the income distribution. By removing them as an option and using the savings to improve Trump accounts, policymakers can shift federal subsidies away from high-income households and toward those who truly need them.  

If the goal is to give every child a fair shot at building a secure financial future, we need policies that not just account for the different resources they need, but also give them the skills and knowledge essential for a successful financial future. As Senate Republicans grapple with their bill’s astronomical cost and regressivity, incorporating these elements of PPI’s previous proposals would be a small, positive step to improve their bill and redirect federal resources to those who need them most.

Weinstein Jr. for Forbes: It’s The Early 1990s Bond Market Again

Three decades ago, a president squarely focused on middle-out growth realized, much to his frustration, that the best thing to do for the nation’s working class would hurt him politically — at least in the short term. The first Democrat to be elected president after Reaganomics had blown a hole in the deficit, Bill Clinton understood that high interest rates for borrowers — small businesses, home buyers, and ordinary consumers alike — were the primary barrier to broad-based prosperity. To bring those rates down in the service of more robust growth, he would have to do something voters of almost every stripe hate: pare back the federal government’s deficit by cutting spending and raising taxes.

He did exactly that, and the economic growth that followed meant Clinton left office boasting the only federal surpluses in recent history. The lessons of his success bear heavily on the political debate today in Washington because, for the first time in 30 years, the yawning gap between federal revenues and federal outlays is poised to emerge again as the prime barrier to domestic economic growth. And yet the Trump administration’s decision to put its head in the sand on this issue with its misnamed Big Beautiful Bill threatens to cut the nation’s working-class families off at the knees.

Senate Changes to House Reconciliation Bill Are a Mixed Bag

On Monday, the Senate Finance Committee released legislative text for the most contentious parts of the Republican reconciliation package: changes to Medicaid and to the tax code. The Senate proposal makes some welcome improvements relative to the House-passed version, particularly by improving the tax treatment of pro-growth investments. But it doubles down on the biggest flaws of the bill by deepening cuts to Medicaid and saddling young Americans with trillions of dollars of debt.

As PPI noted in last week’s Budget Breakdown, the Senate GOP’s top priority for budget reconciliation was making business tax changes permanent. One such provision, which the House approved on a temporary basis, is allowing businesses to immediately deduct the full value of their research and development expenses. This change reverses a damaging provision of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which discouraged research and development by forcing businesses to delay their tax deductions over several years. By fixing this mistake, the Senate budget proposal eliminates a backward tax penalty for research and development that almost no other developed countries have in their tax codes.

Senate Republicans made another pro-growth improvement to the reconciliation bill by modifying the House’s plan to phase out subsidies for producers of clean energy. The House-passed bill terminated these tax credits almost immediately, requiring that most new power plants begin construction within 60 days to be eligible for support. This approach would have devastated ongoing clean-energy projects, which can require years of planning before construction begins. In addition to worsening climate change, which imposes significant costs on our economy every year, this move would also hamper the nation’s ability to expand affordable energy sources. Senate Republicans partially — but not completely — mitigated this issue by phasing out these credits over multiple years, allowing businesses to continue ongoing clean energy investments without short-term disruption.

In order to offset changes to the business tax code, the Senate Finance Committee scaled back two of President Trump’s misguided campaign promises — ending taxes on overtime and tips — by capping the value of above-the-line deductions for both categories of income. Senate Republicans also pushed back against the House’s regressive change to quadruple the size of the state and local tax deduction, while the two chambers continue to negotiate. All of these policy changes are substantial improvements to the House’s budget plan because they save revenue by eliminating tax exceptions for special groups.

The Senate GOP also improved upon the House bill by tightening the limit on ​​health-care provider taxes. States often increase Medicaid’s reimbursements to health-care providers to gain federal matching funds, but then raise taxes on these same providers to reclaim their lost revenue, effectively masking the true cost of providing benefits. Senate Republicans are right to crack down on this shell game in the interest of making Medicaid financing more efficient and more transparent — a move PPI has previously encouraged

But redirecting the savings from this policy change to fund tax cuts for the rich instead of improving Medicaid would shutter many providers that operate on meager margins and deny care to millions of vulnerable beneficiaries as a result. According to an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office published this week, the House-passed bill would reduce incomes for the poorest tenth of Americans by 3.9% while increasing incomes for the richest tenth by 2.3%. The Senate’s decision to cut even more funding for Medicaid would undoubtedly make the bill even more regressive.

On top of redistributing resources from the poor to the rich, the Senate’s changes would redistribute from the young to the old. The Senate bill increases the size of a bonus standard deduction available to seniors, which is a tax policy that PPI has previously called to eliminate because today’s seniors are generally more financially secure than younger Americans, by even more than the House would. At the same time, it cuts back on the expanded Child Tax Credit passed by the House — even as child poverty remains higher than poverty rates for seniors. 

But the biggest way the Senate proposal harms younger generations is by forcing future generations to pay for the deficits that the legislation would cause. The exact cost of the Senate legislation is still unknown, but it’s no doubt in the same ballpark as the House-passed bill that would add roughly $3 trillion to the debt over the coming decade — swelling to nearly $5 trillion if all the temporary policies included in it are made permanent. As PPI has previously warned, this increased debt burden will both reduce incomes for future taxpayers and put them on the hook for higher interest costs — all to finance a shortsighted tax cut today.

Senate Republicans have produced a tax plan that is more thoughtful and pro-growth than the one produced by their House counterparts. But their revised bill doubles down on regressive redistribution and deficit-financed giveaways that move American fiscal policy in the wrong direction, leaving low-income households and young Americans to pick up the tab.

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Fiscal Fact: 

According to new reports from the Social Security and Medicare trustees, trust funds for both programs will be insolvent by 2033 — just eight years from now. If no action is taken before then, Social Security benefits will automatically be cut by 23%, and Medicare payments to hospitals will be cut by 11%.

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