A National Infrastructure Bank: A Road Guide to the Destination

Download the entire memo.

President Obama has proposed a National Infrastructure Bank, a simple declarative sentence that left most listeners wondering what he meant. The confusion arises partly because the administration did not follow up the president’s remarks with a specific proposal, but also because the operations of such a bank have never been fully fleshed out. Felix Rohatyn and I have elsewhere laid out the broad outline of how such a bank would function,1 and that description serves as a good starting point for our expectations regarding the president’s proposal and what Bank-type proposals generally ought to do.

As many writers have noted, American infrastructure is depreciating rapidly – we are likely well below the replacement rate of investment in roads, mass transit, airports, ports, rail, and water assets. The logical implication is that we need to invest more. But more investment in and of itself will not move us towards having the right mix of infrastructure assets in place.

The current mix results from one of two selection processes. The first is devolution to the states (for example the cost-sharing grants delivered by the Highway Trust Fund), and the second is selection by Federal agencies (e.g., the Corps of Engineers). At worst, these processes lead to politically motivated outcomes, either because state governments favor some projects for wholly non-economic reasons, or because the Congress can muscle the selection process from the federal agencies. The most recent transportation authorization bill, passed in 2005, made the word “earmark” famous by incorporating a stunning $24 billion of them – the price of having a law passed. Insofar as we have given the task of project selection to the political process, it would be surprising if this kind of event didn’t happen, not that it sometimes does.

Politicized project selection is one of several problems associated with the current process. But it is one of the reasons why a National Infrastructure Bank is so important and so urgently needed: not just because a bank might be able to lever federal dollars, but because it can use the existing dollars more wisely and obtain a higher public return.

What follows, then, is a description of the role a National Infrastructure Bank could play, taken from the perspective of the specific problems in the current process it might solve. This perspective also allows us to evaluate the administration’s proposal.

In a nutshell, Rohatyn and I propose that we collapse all of the federal “modal” transportation programs into the Bank. Any entity – whether state, local, or federal – would have standing to come to the Bank with a proposal requiring federal assistance. The Bank would be able to negotiate the level and form of such assistance based on the particulars of each project proposal. It could offer cash participation or loan guarantees, underwriting or credit subsidies, or financing for a subordinated fund to assure creditors. Any project requiring federal resources above some dollar threshold (on a credit scoring basis) would have to be approved by the Bank. Additionally, we imagine that some part of the funding for existing modal programs would be converted into block grants sent directly to the states and large cities to be spent on projects too small for the Bank’s oversight. Such grants could also be used for those programs desired by the states that do not pass muster on terms proposed by the Bank.

This is more a vision of infrastructure policy than a blueprint for the immediate future. Admittedly, it will take years and a meticulous reorganization to produce this configuration. But the best way to measure our progress in infrastructure policy (and the merits of the administration’s proposal) is not to see how quickly we adopt the Bank’s specific features, but to see how the Bank addresses the underlying infrastructure policy flaws it is designed to fix.

Download the entire memo.

Home Economics: Job Picture May Be Improving, But Not Housing Markets

Why not?

PPI’s Battleground Home Values Index for January 2012 shows home values staying essentially flat in 15 of 16 president battleground states. The one exception was Iowa, where a decline in values was severe enough to drag down the entire index by two points—the lowest level this year. According to our index, the weighted average of median home values in these states is now down a total of 18% since October 2008.

In the Hawkeye state—the one state where prices took a more serious downward turn—median values have fallen sharply from October 2011 ($124,400) to January’s low ($108,500).

While most pundits seem focused on rising gas prices as the reason for the recent drop in the president’s approval ratings, the continuing slump in home prices might offer another explanation. People still don’t quite feel they’ve regained the wealth they’ve lost in the recession.

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Home Economics: Middle Class Homeowners shouldn’t be a Congressional ATM

ATMIn a classic example of a “slippery slope,” Congress once again is looking for easy pickings by increasing guarantee fees (g-fees) that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac charge lenders to guarantee their mortgage lending. Last December, Congress raised the GSE’s g-fee by 10 basis points for 10 years. The goal was to raise almost $36 billion to pay for the extension of the payroll tax cut. Although this was supposed to be a one-time revenue plug, some lawmakers called for extending the new fees (at a slightly decreased rate) for an eleventh year to pay for restoration and clean up of the Gulf coast.

We understand it’s difficult for Congress to find “pay fors” for important initiatives at a time when Republicans have dug in their heels against tax increases for any purpose, even debt reduction. But treating g-fees as a piggy bank is ill-advised. Here’s why: Raising g-fees will compound the weakness of an already anemic lending environment, discourage home refinancing and lower housing demand.

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How Rising Health Costs Slow Wage Growth

How Rising Health Costs Slow Wage GrowthMost Americans are painfully aware that their health care premiums are rising faster than other necessities of life. Many also know that their earnings are growing slowly or not at all, despite apparent increases in worker productivity. These problems have been widely reported, but are seldom linked.

Yet they are directly connected. The costs of health benefits has gotten so large in recent years, and has been growing so fast, that they are now contributing to the slowdown in workers’ pay and income growth. In economic terms, more of the productivity generated by each worker is being used to pay their health insurance premiums, so less gets paid out in wages.

This shift in compensation helps to explain a mystery that has puzzled economists for nearly a decade: Why have workers’ wages stagnated as their productivity has been increasing? In theory, the two are supposed to rise in tandem.

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Mandel Explains Communications Boom to Bloomberg

PPI Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel explains to Bloomberg why the recent surge in technology industry hiring is only the beginning of a communications-led economic boom:

A surge in technology-industry hiring is helping to spearhead a jobs-market revival as demand swells for computer-software applications and data.

Online help-wanted advertising for computer and mathematical occupations rose 3.4 percent in January from December to the third-highest since the Conference Board began compiling the data in 2005. Vacancies outnumbered job seekers by more than three to one, according to the New York-based research group. Postings on tech-career website Dice.com are 12 percent higher than a year ago, with openings for workers skilled in mobile applications up more than 100 percent.

“This feels like the beginning of another tech-driven jobs boom,” said Michael Mandel, chief economic strategist at the Progressive Policy Institute in Washington. “The broad communications sector resisted the downward pull” of the recession and “is going to be a leader in the expansion.”

Read the full article here.

Mandel Speaks on Economic Impact of Communications Sector

PPI Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel brought forward one very important fact yesterday at the Institute for Policy Innovation’s “Creating the Future” Summit: for the first time, the communications sector will shape the economic recovery and drive future economic policy. At the summit, Mandel explained how the sector drove investment in innovation and added jobs over a period where total net investment dropped 50 percent and millions of jobs across other sectors were lost. Mandel’s recent study on the “App Economy” estimates at least 500,000 jobs have been created since 2007 by the explosion of apps.

Mandel argued that the future importance of the communications sector during the next expansion follows historical trends—in previous downturns the sectors that brought the economy back to life also drove the subsequent expansion. And of all the sectors that could be fueling the next economic boom, communications—a sector whose innovations have transformed how we live and our quality of life—is a good sector to have in this position.

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Home Economics: Housing Values Down, Obama Administration Steps Up, and Bank of America Calls it Quits

Home SalesThis week in housing was an especially busy one; PPI looks at just a few highlights with Case-Shiller numbers, a new government pilot program on housing and a huge announcement from Bank of America. Let’s get to it.

1. S&P Case-Shiller, the leading Index of national housing values, came out on Monday. The December data continued to highlight what is clearly the biggest drag on a recovery that is trying to find its footing, declining home values.  Case Shiller’s latest numbers showed the composite of the three indices (national, 10 cities, and 20 cities) was down 3.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2011 and were the lowest numbers for the popular Index since the crisis began in 2006.

In related “Index” news, PPI released the first edition of the “PPI Battleground Home Values Index” last week. The Index looks at home values since the 2008 election in 16 battleground states.

Continue reading “Home Economics: Housing Values Down, Obama Administration Steps Up, and Bank of America Calls it Quits”

PPI Battleground Home Values Index

In these 16 states, home prices are down an average of 16 percent since October 2008—from a median of $160,596 to a median of $131,191 in December 2011.

The states included in the PPI analysis are among those hardest-hit by the housing crisis: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Indiana, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

PPI’s analysis is based on data derived from Zillow and the U.S. Census Bureau. The overall median home value for the battleground states is a weighted average based on the proportion of housing units in that state.

For more information, see Gold and Kim’s policy report, “Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States.”

How Standing Up For Chinese Workers Helps America’s Economy

China may look like an unstoppable economic juggernaut, but it is increasingly beset at home by worker protests and strikes. Last June, for example, security officials in Zengcheng, a manufacturing city in southern China, fired tear gas at hundreds of migrant workers who smashed windows and overturned police cars after hearing the rumor that authorities had pushed a pregnant migrant street vendor to the ground.

Spreading labor unrest in China has large economic as well as political implications for Sino-American relations. Put simply, stronger rights for Chinese workers is good for America’s bottom line. By explaining our economic interest in empowering China’s workers, U.S. leaders could galvanize broad public support behind a more insistent push for individual and civil liberties in China. Too often, however, they fail to make that connection. They may deplore the way China arbitrarily limits speech and imprisons lawyers,
human rights watchdogs, religious leaders, and worker advocates. But they rarely note that empowering China’s workers would likely lead to higher wages and benefits, and therefore a shrinking labor cost advantage over U.S. competitors.

In this paper, I explore the vital link between the rights of Chinese workers and the competitive health of the American economy. If a nation has lax labor laws, or has good ones but doesn’t enforce them, local employers can keep wages down and produce goods at much cheaper cost. Moreover, if workers are unable to strike or effectively petition their employers because the legal system doesn’t guarantee freedom of speech and association, then their country is essentially subsidizing its companies, giving them an unfair advantage in the global economy.

Indeed, inconsistent labor law enforcement, inattention to workplace safety, and violations of binding legal contracts (such as wage agreements) have enabled Chinese manufacturers to hold down the price of Chinese labor. The labor cost differential, of course, is the main reason Chinese goods are significantly cheaper, even after they have been shipped to the United States. Raising labor standards in China will inevitably lead to raising the price of Chinese-produced goods, making goods produced by U.S. workers more competitive. That’s why strong U.S. support for the rights of China’s workers should be an integral part of Washington’s strategy of constructive engagement with Beijing. Not only is it the right thing to do from a human rights standpoint, it is also clearly in America’s economic interests as we seek a more balanced commercial relationship
with China.

More specifically, let me offer seven recommendations for U.S. policymakers:

  1. Put human and worker rights at the center of U.S. diplomacy toward China.
  2. Raise public awareness of the link between workers’ rights in China, and economic benefits for Americans.
  3. Work closely with other liberal democracies to demand China’s adherence to its own labor laws and international standards.
  4. Expand bilateral working groups on labor rights, so that these issues come up routinely in Sino-American relations.
  5. Fund civil society groups that promote and defend workers’ rights.
  6. Use trade as leverage to achieve progress on workers’ rights.
  7. Ratify two key International Labour Organization protocols: the Freedom of Association and Protection of the Right to Organise Convention (1948), and the Right to Organise and Collective Bargaining Convention (1949). In advocating rights and liberties around the world, the U.S. must also lead by example.

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What the App Economy Can Teach the Whole Economy

The AtlanticPPI Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel, explains in The Atlantic how innovative developments in the App Economy provide important lessons for the whole economy:

“Android, apps, iPhones, Angry Birds, iPads, FarmVille, data contracts: It’s a bit jarring to realize that these terms, so familiar today, only date back five years. The introduction of the iPhone in 2007, and the initial distribution of Android the same year, marked the birth of the App Economy.

“But the App Economy didn’t just mean more fun games and more ways to do work on the go — it meant more jobs as well. Based on research I did for Technet, the association of high-tech innovative companies, the App Economy has generated nearly 500,000 jobs since 2007. This is an impressive total, especially during the worst labor market downturn since the Great Depression. It’s also an indication of the growing macroeconomic impact of the App Economy.

“We can draw three lessons from the success of the App economy to help us understand how we can drive prosperity forward.”

Read the full article at The Atlantic

Fueling App Economy Jobs with More Spectrum

A February 2012 paper by PPI Chief Economic Strategist Michael Mandel estimated that the App Economy has generated almost 500,000 new jobs since 2007. Mandel wrote:

“The incredibly rapid rise of smartphones, tablets, and social media, and the applications—‘apps’—that run on them, is perhaps the biggest economic and technological phenomenon today…On an economic level, each app represents jobs—for programmers, for user interface designers, for marketers, for managers, for support staff….

…App Economy employment also includes app-related jobs at large companies such as Electronic Arts, Amazon, and AT&T, as well as app ‘infrastructure’ jobs at core firms such as Google, Apple, and Facebook. In addition, the App Economy total includes employment spillovers to the rest of the economy.”

The growth of App Economy employment is a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish labor market, showing how innovation is still the best job creator.

So how then can Washington best encourage the continued growth of the App Economy? The absolutely essential ingredient for the App Economy is spectrum. By spectrum, we are referring to the radio frequencies which carry the streams of data to our smartphones and tablets. And as apps get more and more sophisticated and indispensable, our mobile data needs grow rapidly, and we face the danger of a spectrum crunch.

That means there’s a great need for the Government, which controls spectrum licenses, to free up additional spectrum if App Economy employment – and future mobile service innovation – is to grow. Last week, Congress authorized the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to organize a “voluntary incentive auction” for unused, or underused, spectrum. The FCC is working with TV broadcasters to sell their unused and underused spectrum in an auction format to commercial wireless broadband providers that need more spectrum for wireless network and capacity extension. The winning bidders are likely to be mobile service providers and the current broadcast license owners will receive a share of the selling price. This auction is part of a plan by the Obama Administration to sell 500 megahertz of spectrum over the next 10 years.

However, as part of last week’s legislation, Congress also gave the FCC the authority to establish general applicability rules for the auction regarding the amount of spectrum any one company can hold. In other words, the FCC has the ability to restrict which companies can participate in the auction, if the participant owns more spectrum than the FCC deems eligible. Unfortunately, the FCC appears to be working under the assumption that only the larger mobile service providers will obtain spectrum at auction, out-bidding smaller rivals.

But at a time when the App Economy is creating jobs at a rapid pace, the FCC should not try to dictate who should or should not be allowed to buy spectrum. The key to making the voluntary auction a success is ensuring that spectrum is awarded to the companies who can get it to consumers as quickly and efficiently as possible, who have the resources now to invest in new innovations, creating jobs and boosting the economy in the process. And the economic potential of spectrum innovation is great. A recent study by Robert Shapiro and Kevin Hassett calculates that over 1.5 million jobs were created over 2007-2011 from wireless providers’ switch from 2G to 3G.

Which companies are best suited to get spectrum innovations to market quickly and effectively? A December 2011 policy brief from PPI, “Scale and Innovation in Today’s Economy,” shows that larger companies with a national reach may be the best placed to quickly move innovations through development into the hands of consumers. Larger companies have the resources readily available and the platforms needed to implement large-scale innovations to a national wireless network. What’s more, smaller carriers increasingly depend on the ability of larger companies to effectively move wireless network innovations to scale to provide their customers with better service.

It may be at least a year or more before the FCC implements the new legislation, and many more years before an auction takes place. Until then, mobile service providers will be forced to work within their existing spectrum, and hopefully will continue to find new ways to make spectrum more efficient. Indeed, mobile providers have already invested billions to increase the data-carrying capacity of existing spectrum. For example, in 2011, AT&T introduced 4G, the fourth generation of high-speed wireless communication, to its mobile services which is 50 percent more efficient than its 3G predecessor.

While such efficiency-boosting advancements are very important to the future of spectrum, and to the future of the App Economy, the only long-term solution is to get as much spectrum to market as possible, as quickly as possible. And given the clear importance of the App Economy for driving growth, making sure the FCC conducts spectrum auctions the right way – by not restricting eligible participants – is critical for creating tomorrow’s jobs and ensuring a strong economic recovery.

Photo Credit: Brian Wilkins

Ending the Nuclear Drought

Vogtle Nuclear Plant

America’s long nuclear energy drought is officially over. For the first time in 33 years, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has approved a construction and operating license for a new nuclear reactor in the United States – actually two of them to expand Southern Company’s Plant Vogtle generating facility in Georgia.

This is good news for U.S. electricity consumers, companies, and workers. Since 1979, the last time NRC approved a construction permit, U.S. electricity use has risen more than 80 percent. An expansion of nuclear power – which has provided about 20 percent of the nation’s electricity for decades – shows that the United States is serious about meeting growing energy demand without pumping more carbon into the atmosphere. At a time when political support for some kind of carbon cap or tax has seemingly collapsed, that’s an important sign that Americans aren’t giving up on protecting the Earth’s climate.

The two reactors will generate thousands of badly needed construction and operating jobs. Their larger significance, however, may lie in symbolizing America’s commitment to rebuilding its productive base. In effect, the NRC’s action puts America back in the nuclear energy business, and not a moment too soon. Around the world, some 160 new nuclear reactors have either been ordered or are planned to be operational by 2030, according to the World Nuclear Organization. We need to rebuild our nuclear industrial infrastructure to be able to compete in the fast-growing global market for nuclear energy.

The NRC’s decision comes on the heels of another important development which bodes well for America’s “nuclear renaissance.” Last month, President Obama’s Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future (BRC) issued its final report. It offers a new strategy for breaking the impasse on nuclear waste disposal, which has tied politicians in knots over the proposed Yucca Mountain facility for decades. Headed by Democrat Lee Hamilton and Republican Brent Scowcroft, the BRC calls for a resumption of the search for a second geological storage site, which it says we will need regardless of Yucca’s fate.

Nuclear energy still faces significant hurdles, especially the enormous upfront costs of siting and building a generating plant. But if the NRC can follow today’s action with a commitment to speeding up the approval process, some of those costs could be mitigated. In any case, it’s critical for the United States to recapture its technological leadership in energy, which includes the civilian nuclear power industry that was first invented here.

Photo Credit: Blatant World

Mandel on America’s Growing “App Economy”

In a new study published by TechNet, PPI Chief Economic Strategist, Michael Mandel, explains America’s prospering “App Economy”:

“TechNet, the bipartisan policy and political network of technology CEOs that promotes the growth of the innovation economy, today released a new study showing that there are now roughly 466,000 jobs in the “App Economy” in the United States, up from zero in 2007.

“The study … also found that App Economy jobs are spread throughout the nation. The top metro area for App Economy jobs is New York City and its surrounding suburban counties, although together San Francisco and San Jose together substantially exceed New York. And while California tops the list of App Economy states with nearly one in four jobs, states such as Georgia, Florida, and Illinois get their share as well.

“According to our analysis, the App Economy has created roughly 466,000 jobs since the iPhone was introduced in 2007. How big can the App Economy get? That depends in many ways on the future of wireless and social networks. If wireless and social network platforms continue to grow, then we can expect the AppEconomy to grow along with them.”

Read the article and new study here

What’s Really Behind Bain Capital(ism)

Mitt Romney

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has taken a beating over the past few weeks regarding his long tenure at the private equity firm, Bain Capital. After distinguishing himself from President Obama as someone who truly knows how to create jobs, Romney likely did not expect to have his business credentials challenged—let alone by his Republican rivals. Among other things, Bain has been accused of “looting” companies and destroying jobs and lives along the way.

Some have sprung to Romney’s defense, often relying on the idea “creative destruction,” a term coined by economist Joseph Schumpeter several decades ago to describe the persistent process by which entrepreneurs challenge existing companies, often leading to the latter’s demise. Such creative destruction reached new levels in the 1980s, precisely the period now under scrutiny in the Bain recriminations.

Not surprisingly, this controversial issue isn’t new: liberals and conservatives have been quarreling over the economic lessons of the 1980s for twenty years. Wall Street Journal columnist Daniel Henninger argues that, in contrast to the narrative presented in movies like Wall Street, firms such as Bain “saved” the U.S. economy: “This was a historic and necessary cleansing of the Augean stables of the American economy. … It led directly to the 1990s boom years.”

The debate, however, glosses over the long-term economic trends in America that should be of very real concern. Many people have pointed out that the decade from 2000 to 2009 was the weakest in terms of job creation since World War Two. Even leaving aside the recessionary years of 2008 and 2009, the expansion from 2002 to 2007 was the weakest in postwar history—a hedge fund manager interviewed in Michael Lewis’ recent book, Boomerang, describes it as a “false boom.”

What connects the argument over the 1980s with today’s economic challenges? See this chart:
Gross Job Flows
Gross Job Flows
Economists at the Census Bureau and elsewhere have laboriously compiled a detailed breakdown of labor market “flows” over the past three decades. While the United States maintains a relatively high level of job churn, with millions of people changing jobs each quarter (for better or worse), overall job creation has slowed markedly.

There are many reasons for this. One is the falling job contribution of new and young companies, a trend that began prior to the Great Recession. My Kauffman Foundation colleagues, E.J. Reedy and Robert Litan, have documented what they call a trend of companies “starting smaller, staying smaller.”

The fact that new companies start with fewer employees today than they did several years ago probably won’t surprise too many people—technological advances likely account for some of this. Likewise, sectoral shifts in the types of new companies have probably also played a role: construction firms tend to be smaller than manufacturing companies, and many more of the former were started over the past decade. More worrisome is the second part of the research by Reedy and Litan: namely, that young companies are growing more slowly than their predecessors in the 1980s and 1990s.

How can we account for this phenomenon?

For one, demographic trends may be at work: labor force participation has fallen over the past several years and so slower job creation could reflect lower availability of workers, as strange as that sounds at a time when we have millions of unemployed workers. Second, the productivity revolution that began in the mid-1990s has meant lower levels of job creation. Finally, lower job churn doesn’t necessarily reflect poorer labor market outcomes. Some researchers have argued that job tenure among women remains higher than men because of women’s later large-scale entry into the workforce and, since women now account for a much larger share of the workforce, this could suppress turnover.

Whatever the reason, it is clear that an accusatory debate over Mitt Romney and private equity does little to advance our understanding of deeper economic trends and what might be done about them. Given the complex interaction of these larger trends above, we need a far broader dialogue that matches the scale of our economic challenges.

Photo by: Lachicaphoto

In Slump, Localities Resort to Excise Taxes

Nobody likes excise taxes—those annoying extra costs people notice only because of how narrow and random they are. They show up on hotel bills and cell phone bills. They are added on to the cost of alcohol, gasoline, and cigarettes. And the list keeps growing. For example, in 2010, Newark, New Jersey, imposed a 5% tax on rental cars while Baltimore imposed a 2-cent per bottle tax on soda.

New data from the Census Bureau shows just how much local governments relied on in-creases in excise taxes to fill budget holes during the recession. PPI calculates that excise tax revenues collected by local governments—not including gas or tobacco—increased 5.2% from 2007 to 2009, compared to a decline of 8.1% in national retail spending by consumers, including restaurants. Even when you add in gas and tobacco, excise tax revenues rose by 4.5% during the recession, while local government general sales tax revenues went up 1.6% and national output (GDP) declined by 0.6%.

The large growth in excise taxes relative to the drop in retail sales shows that during a time when incomes were down, local government turned to these narrow, selective taxes imposed on consumers to make up the balance. For example, two tourist meccas, Las Vegas and New York City, raised hotel room taxes in 2009.

While the data reported in the chart applies only to local governments, state govern-ments also looked to excise taxes to solve their financial woes. In fact, 22 states raised excise taxes on tobacco, alcohol, or motor fuel in 2008 and 2009, with 24 states enacting other types of excise tax increases during the same period.

Download the report:1.2012-Carew_In-Slump-Localities-Resort-to-Excise-Taxes

Underwater: Home Values in 2012 Battleground States

As the 2012 election approaches, the nation’s unemployment rate will continue to drive the political debate and, in turn, the fortunes of President Obama and his GOP rivals.

Despite the central focus on unemployment, however, another number deserves equal attention as a barometer of the nation’s overall economic health: housing values.

As catastrophic as it is to lose a job, the percentage of Americans who are unemployed is actually exceeded by the percentage of Americans who have either lost significant wealth from their homes or are currently “underwater”—owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Since 2006, Americans have lost a total of $7 trillion in housing wealth—a figure that, according to the Federal Reserve, is more than half of the nation’s aggregate home equity.

In recent days, the Obama Administration has telegraphed its intention to devote more energy to housing—and with a focus on foreclosures and defaults. While this is laudable, the Administration should not neglect a second front: the tremendous loss of housing wealth.

In this report, we make our case by analyzing home values in the 16 battleground states that will serve as the proving ground for 2012. In 15 of these states, home values have fallen by an average of 16% since October 2008. We also offer up suggestions for tackling this issue.

No doubt, every contender for the White House will have a jobs plan. But no economic plan can be complete without an equally robust plan to rebuild housing—and in particular, to rebuild housing wealth. Policies that address this loss of wealth, even for those not at immediate risk of losing their homes, makes sense both politically and economically

Negative equity: A new crisis in middle-class wealth

In a reversal of the optimism that is typical of Americans, 41% of people in a January 2012 poll—including a majority of seniors—said they feel less financially secure than last year, while just 14% said they feel more secure.

The loss of wealth—and housing wealth in particular—might help explain why.

According to the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, 62.5% of families suffered a loss of wealth from 2007 to 2009. Moreover, says the Fed, “declines in home equity were an important driver of decreases in wealth.”

  • Homes made up 47.6% of the total non-financial assets held by Americans in 2009. Between 2007 and 2009, American homeowners saw their equity drop by a median of 11.8% (or $18,700).
  • From its peak in 2006, the Case-Shiller housing index (the “Dow” of home values) has fallen 32.93%, including an 11.33% decline from October 2008. Median home prices have fallen from $196,600 to $164,100.
  • As many as 12 million Americans are now “underwater” with mortgages that are more than their homes are worth.

 

The loss of home equity has broad implications for the nation’s economy beyond mere sentiments of economic confidence. For example, underwater homeowners can’t qualify to refinance their homes, which means they can’t take advantage of one of the Administration’s most successful monetary policies: low interest rates. A 1% lower interest rate on a $200,000 mortgage can mean $168 less in interest payments per month—money that could be spent in the broader economy on other things.

Underwater borrowers are also stuck in their homes, unable to trade up or move out (a problem that also limits job mobility). Negative equity also means no nest egg for homeowners nearing retirement, and fewer resources to draw on for households seeking to finance a new business, help a child through college or weather out a spell of unemployment or ill health.

Download the report:1.2012-Gold_Kim_Underwater-Home-Values-in-2012-Battleground-States