Ainsley in The New York Times: ‘What If Donald Shouts at Me?’ Trump Sours on British Leader Over Iran War

[…]

Claire Ainsley, the director of the Center-Left Renewal Project at the Progressive Policy Institute, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, said Mr. Starmer is facing the same challenges with Mr. Trump that his counterparts have.

“All leaders had to grapple with how to deal with Trump,” said Ms. Ainsley, who served as Mr. Starmer’s political director from 2020 to 2022, before the Labour Party won the 2024 general election. “The U.K. dealt with the situation pretty well, establishing a personal relationship with the president that has allowed them to have a more candid dialogue even when they disagree.”

[…]

Read more in The New York Times

Manno for EducationNext: The Social Wealth Gap

In today’s economy, what you know still matters, but who you know—and who knows you—matters just as much.

Young people from affluent, well-connected families often inherit a quiet advantage that includes access to mentors, family friends, alumni networks, and managers who can offer advice, open doors, and vouch for them. Their peers from low-income or first-generation immigrant families are more likely to graduate socially impoverished. They earn their diploma but lack the relationships that turn credentials into opportunity.

Call it America’s social wealth gap.

We talk endlessly about the deficits K–12 and college students have in learning, skills, and finances. We talk much less about the missing ingredient that converts credentials into a career: social capital. If education leaders and policymakers want to expand opportunity and strengthen the talent pipeline, they have to treat students’ relationships—not just their diplomas and resumes—as critical infrastructure.

Read more in EducationNext

Ainsley in Politico EU: Keep calm and carry on: Britain’s finance minister tries to dodge the Biden trap

[…]

Labour MPs and aides tried to learn lessons from the Democrats’ defeat in 2024, with several exchanges and meetings brokered through center-left U.S. think tanks such as the Progressive Policy Institute.

Claire Ainsley, director of the PPI’s project on center-left renewal, said: “The British government appears to be learning the lessons from the Democrats, which is talk about the economy in the way people experience it.”

But, Ainsley went on, “the Democrats also had very strong economic growth in which to do that and that is not the projection for the British economy in the 2020s. So Labour has to be very careful about not promising that people are going to be better when there are so many uncertainties.”

The U.K. government adviser referenced above added: “Things have definitely moved on from 2024 when there was this idea that doing kind of Biden-y things would result in being rewarded.” Likewise, they added, “[Trump’s] economic numbers are terrible. They’re not something to emulate.”

[…]

Read more in Politico EU

Jacoby in Background Briefing: As Russia’s War on Ukraine Enters Its Fifth Year, A Report From Kyiv On How the Ukrainians Are Holding Up

Background Briefing with Ian Masters · As Russia’s War on Ukraine Enters Its Fifth Year, How Are Ukrainians Holding Up

 

We begin with the fifth year on Russia’s war on Ukraine beginning today and go to Kyiv to assess how the Ukrainian people are dealing with a bitter winter, constant Russian attacks on civilian targets and a United States under Donald Trump that has cut military and economic support while cozying up to Russia’s ruthless dictator who started this war and appears to have no interest an any real peace short of Ukraine’s capitulation. Joining us is Tamar Jacoby, the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. She was a senior writer and justice editor at Newsweek and, before that, the deputy editor of the New York Times op-ed page. She is the author of Displaced: The Ukrainian Refugee Experience and we discuss her article at The Washington Monthly, “Ukraine: Requiem for a Citizen Soldier: My friend, an entrepreneur turned exemplary officer, was killed in action in eastern Ukraine this year. Like his comrades, he knew what he was fighting for.”

Listen to the interview here. 

Ainsley for The Mirror: Nigel Farage’s Reform are not the workers’ champions – look at their policies

Reform UK are eyeing up a big win in Greater Manchester at this month’s Gorton & Denton by-election.

Nigel Farage and his band of ex-Tories are hoping to persuade voters disillusioned with Labour in Government that they are the workers’ champions. But actions speak louder than words, and the actions of Reform and their populist allies show they are not to be trusted as the workers’ friend.

Just take a look at America, where millions of workers who were fed up of the status quo voted for Donald Trump. Yet one year on, his policies of slapping tariffs on foreign goods and chopping and changing is pushing up prices for American workers.

Meanwhile, his wealthy cronies are raking it in for themselves, with the Trump family fortune ballooning by $1billion since he was elected for the second time, and 30 Trump donors have received benefits or advantages. No wonder his poll ratings are taking a dive as ordinary Americans who were promised change start to doubt he can deliver on what matters to them.

Read more in The Mirror. 

Ainsley in ABC Australia: UK political crisis deepens after PM’s chief of staff quits

Buckingham Palace says King Charles is ready to support any police investigation into his brother Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.

British police have confirmed they are assessing information provided to them, allegedly showing that the former prince Andrew had passed confidential reports to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein while the former royal was British trade envoy more than a decade ago.

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on the British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to resign over a decision to hire Lord Peter Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington.

The former ambassador’s name appears thousands of times in the files.

  • Guest: Claire Ainsley, Former Director of Policy to Keir Starmer, now Director of the Project on Center-Left Renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute

Listen to the interview here. 

Jacoby on Joan Esposito: Live, Local & Progressive

Tamar Jacoby, contributor to Washington Monthly and the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project and the author of “Displaced: The Ukrainian Refugee Experience.” Her latest article for Washington Monthly is “Putin’s Energy Blitzkrieg is Backfiring.”

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: Putin’s Energy Blitzkrieg is Backfiring

“Wait ‘til it gets cold—really cold, Ukrainian cold,” a friend warned when I arrived in Kyiv in 2022. I didn’t know what he meant until this year—recent winters here, like almost everywhere, have been relatively mild. But 2026 is a throwback: it’s been snowing off and on for weeks, and temperatures, at their lowest in years, are hovering between 5 and 15 degrees Fahrenheit, and colder at night. Vladimir Putin is trying to weaponize the frigid weather with huge drone and missile strikes every few days, knocking out heat, water, and electricity in Kyiv and other cities. But if his goal is to freeze Ukrainians into submission, breaking their will, it isn’t working. If anything, they are more determined to resist.

Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since winter 2022. But this year is different—not just the weather, but also the scale and ferocity of Putin’s attacks. The bombardments escalated in December, and after nearly two months, they have come to seem a way of life. In Kyiv, there are air alerts virtually every night, punctuated every few days by a particularly savage attack. On January 9, Moscow launched 242 drones and 36 missiles, knocking out electricity across 70 percent of Ukraine’s capital and leaving some 6,000 apartment buildings without heat. The January 20 assault of 339 drones and 34 rockets included a Zircon hypersonic missile designed to destroy a warship. January 23 brought another 375 drones and 21 missiles, including another dreaded Zircon.

Ukrainian energy companies and attacking Russians play a macabre game of cat-and-mouse. After each assault, the companies scramble to repair the damage, often completing the task only to have the enemy strike again. On the morning of January 23, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced that two-thirds of the damage from the previous bombardment had been repaired, leaving fewer than 2,000 buildings without heat. By the next morning, the tally again approached 6,000—roughly half the city’s housing stock, in many cases buildings that been without heat the week before.

Read more in Washington Monthly. 

Trump’s ‘Board of Peace’ is a Corrupt Joke

President Trump’s “Board of Peace,” formally launched at the annual confab of the world’s elite at Davos, amounts to little more than perhaps the most ambitious pay-to-play scheme in history. 

Originally a part of last October’s Gaza cease-fire plan, the Board of Peace has since evolved into a broader scheme that holds enormous potential for corruption. According to its charter, nations wanting a permanent seat on the body must give it “more than USD $1,000,000,000 in cash funds to the Board of Peace within the first year of the Charter’s entry into force.” Trump himself serves personally as chairman for life and holds more or less total authority over the board’s composition and activities — right now, it includes such luminaries as Secretary of State-slash-National Security Adviser Marco Rubio, the apparently omnicompetent special envoy Steve Witkoff, and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner. What’s more, Trump will also be able to handpick his own successor.

Never mind that violence continues to plague Gaza, meaning the Board of Peace doesn’t have much real peace to keep. Even the most seemingly easy parts of the ceasefire plan — the return of Israeli hostages, living and dead — have taken longer than initially envisaged, with far more difficult steps like the disarmament of Hamas and the assembly of an International Stabilization Force for Gaza yet to get underway. Jared Kushner’s fantasy of gleaming, redeveloped luxury Gaza will likely remain just that — a fantasy. 

Beyond the rather obvious corruption risk that gives foreign potentates the opportunity to buy Trump’s favor, the Board of Peace is also a bid by Trump and his cronies to usurp or circumvent the functions of existing international bodies and institutions like the United Nations. Flawed as they may be in many respects, these institutions do possess widespread legitimacy: virtually every nation on Earth belongs to the UN. We don’t need to romanticize these institutions or pretend that they’re better and more effective than they really are — in far too many cases, they even wind up prolonging conflicts and issues they intend to resolve — to recognize they often have practical value as forums for discussions among nations and, in some cases, mechanisms for action on pressing international problems. 

As a pay-to-play scheme with its membership determined by Trump himself, the Board of Peace will lack even a patina of legitimacy — and it may find it impossible to achieve anything aside from its primary function of enriching Trump himself or its original purpose of supervising the Gaza ceasefire plan. 

Indeed, the board’s membership remains far too narrow to command anything resembling widespread and lasting legitimacy. Right now, the board consists of a handful of governments already politically aligned with Trump or seeking to curry his favor in one way or another: countries like Argentina and Hungary run by Trump allies Javier Milei and Viktor Orban, as well as Middle Eastern states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey that combine ties to Trump with their own national interests in Gaza’s stability. All told, around thirty-five countries out of the fifty or so Trump invited to join the Board of Peace have said they’ll sign up, with only Vladimir Putin promising to pony up the $1 billion payment required for a permanent board seat — funds the Kremlin says will be drawn from Moscow’s frozen assets. If Trump were to accept Putin’s offer, he would effectively be comping the Kremlin for its membership.

It’s also telling that some of America’s closest and longest-standing allies have rejected Trump’s invitation to join his Board of Peace. France, Germany, and Italy have all signaled that they will not sign on, while Trump himself petulantly revoked Canada’s invitation after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s sober call at Davos to recognize that the so-called rules-based order no longer governs the affairs of nations — due in large measure to Trump’s bristling hostility toward America’s NATO allies and chronic threats to tariff America’s closest trading partners. This sort of mercurial behavior offers another in a long line of stark warnings to other nations: humor Trump and join the Board of Peace at your own peril.

As a result, it seems unlikely at the moment that the Board of Peace will succeed either as a mechanism to enrich Trump himself or as a substitute for the existing international bodies like the United Nations. It lacks the basic legitimacy that the UN, for all of its often severe flaws and failings, possesses by virtue of its near-universal membership. Only the most corrupt and undemocratic of nations will shell out the billion dollars demanded for the permanent opportunity, as the Washington Post columnist Max Boot put it, “to volunteer to be bossed around by Chairman Trump.”

For its part, Congress should refuse to appropriate or authorize any funding for the Board of Peace that goes beyond the role specified for it in Gaza under UN Security Council Resolution 2803. Indeed, Congress should hold Trump’s feet to the fire and require him and his Board to actually come up with a workable plan for Gaza lest the cease-fire, such as it is, unravels. The Trump administration, having demolished USAID and no doubt highlighting the UN’s shortcomings, will likely insist that American taxpayers foot part of the board’s bill. Outside of possible funding for Gaza, however, Congress should answer any request to do so with a firm and resolute no. 

Of course, this could all be much ado about very little if Trump fails to make any money from the Board of Peace over the next year. It will stagger on as a zombie institution through the remainder of Trump’s term, remembered as nothing more than a colossal exercise in vanity and corruption.

Juul for InsideSources: On Greenland, Trump Madness Runs Amok

There’s only one way to describe President Trump’s fixation with seizing Greenland: madness.

It’s a preoccupation that’s untethered from reality and lacks any rational justification. Indeed, none of the shifting rationales offered by the Trump administration makes any sense — particularly the supposed national security grounds for annexation.

It’s impossible to say what the United States might gain from such a move because the country would not gain anything from it. The U.S. military already possesses extensive access to Greenland, thanks to the 1951 agreement between Washington and Copenhagen. The U.S. Space Force maintains a base at Pituffik in the territory’s far north that helps monitor for ballistic missile attacks.

Moreover, America is already committed to defending Greenland against aggression via Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Per that provision — invoked only once in response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack on the United States — an armed attack on Greenland, an autonomous and self-governing territory under Danish sovereignty, would be considered an attack on the United States itself.

Continue reading.

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: As Trump’s Greenland Threat Grows, Europe Begins to Find Its Voice

It has taken European leaders nearly a year to recognize what they were up against in Donald Trump. The 47th president has been browbeating and insulting them since he returned to the White House. He has called Europe a “decaying” continent led by “weak,” “incompetent” people who “are not doing a good job,” and his administration has vowed to “cultivate resistance” to continental governments, replacing them with far-right populists. Still, most European leaders have been afraid to push back, wary of alienating the great power that has guaranteed the continent’s security and prosperity for over 80 years.

But this dynamic appears to be changing as Trump ratchets up his threats to take over Greenland—the autonomous territory of a loyal NATO member—either “the easy way” or “the hard way,” with the use of force.

As recently as last fall, European leaders fell into two camps. The largest group consisted of what you might call “appeasers” like NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who never publicly questions or counters Trump and called him “Daddy” at last summer’s NATO summit. In the other camp, generally younger, less established, or no longer in public office, are the “rebels.” Among the most outspoken is former Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who warns that NATO is heading into its “twilight“ years and if Europe “doesn’t wake up, we might have to declare it dead.”

What’s been missing are sober, down-to-earth voices with concrete plans for how Europe can move toward a new order, out from under America’s shadow and able to defend itself against an aggressive, revanchist Russia.

Read more in Washington Monthly.

America and Iran Can’t Afford Trump’s Hubris

In recent weeks, untold numbers of ordinary Iranians have taken to the streets of their towns and cities to protest the repression and incompetent economic management of the country’s ruling theocratic regime. The regime itself appears intent on slaughtering its way to survival, murdering thousands of ordinary Iranians in what has become one of the bloodiest domestic crackdowns the world has seen in decades. Supposed moderates have closed ranks behind the regime, and cracks have yet to appear in the regime itself or among security services like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While its immediate fate remains uncertain, the regime’s long-term prognosis appears terminal: too much popular discontent with a regime too ideologically rigid and corrupt to face (much less solve) Iran’s severe economic problems.

Even if the Iranian people topple the present regime and replace it with a more liberal and democratic one that reflects the actual aspirations of the Iranian people, that new government may not see eye to eye with the United States when it comes to regional and global politics. But it would lack the current regime’s ideological zealotry and would probably not maintain Iranian support for terrorist and militant groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis that sow chaos and destruction across the Middle East and the rest of the world. 

For his part, President Trump threatened military action against Iran if it continues its crackdown — though it’s not clear what the use of force would actually achieve. Destroying some regime security services facilities — say, a few IRGC barracks — probably would not do much to stop the regime’s current killing spree; this is, after all, an existential question for the regime from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on down. Moreover, an American-led air campaign seems just as likely to disrupt protests as hamper the regime’s repression: many ordinary Iranians would understandably head for cover to avoid incoming missiles and bombs, while the regime would use such strikes to attack protestors as tools of foreign powers and pose as the defenders of Iranian sovereignty. Even if air strikes precipitated the fall of the present regime, moreover, it’s hard to believe that a new Iranian government that rose to power in the wake of American military action would prove entirely stable or legitimate even in the short run. 

Nor, for whatever it’s worth, do America’s regional partners — Israel and Egypt as well as Gulf monarchies Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia — want the United States to take military action against Iran. Most Americans agree, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll that finds some 70% of registered voters opposed to American military intervention in Iran. 

Fortunately, the United States does have smarter and potentially more effective policy options beyond the use of military force to support Iran’s protestors: cyber operations could disrupt the regime and its security services as they continue their murderous crackdown on the Iranian people, making coordination between elements of the security services more difficult and giving protestors more room for maneuver against them. It could also deny the regime the ability to censor and jam communication with the outside world, allowing Iranians to get their story out without regime interference. Functional American public diplomacy and support for civil society groups could also have proven useful in Iran today had not the Trump administration made them an early target of its lawless attack on the federal government; indeed, Trump slashed funding for initiatives intended to help dissidents and protestors circumvent internet shutdowns of the sort imposed by Iran’s regime.

It would also be useful for the United States to coordinate with its allies and partners in the European Union, bringing additional pressure to bear on the regime from governments that historically have had more avenues for engagement with Tehran. But President Trump’s insane impulse to seize Greenland by whatever means necessary has created a rift with America’s European allies that only consumes time, attention, and resources that could’ve been devoted to real problems — not just the Iranian uprising, but support for Ukraine in its ongoing fight against Russian aggression. Instead, America and its European allies find themselves in a wholly unnecessary crisis of Trump’s own making.

What’s more, the United States could offer carrots in the form of sanctions relief that could both buoy protestors and create rifts within the regime itself. Ironically enough, Trump himself has precedent here: he lifted sanctions on the new post-Assad government in Syria last year, and could make a similar pledge to do so in Iran if the regime changes there. And if Iranians were to, in fact, change their regime, it would certainly be helpful if the United States had some sort of foreign assistance agency to help any new Iranian government establish itself and take root — but with the destruction of USAID, no such agency exists.

But President Trump and his administration appear more interested in military action against Iran for its own sake, only loosely tethered at best to any political or strategic objectives — to say nothing of an actual sense of how the use of force might help achieve them. They seem to believe their earlier uses of military force — against Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, against small boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, and most recently against Venezuela — have been wholly unqualified and unblemished successes, leading Trump and his administration to level military threats not only against Iran but Colombia, Mexico, and Greenland as well. 

There’s a word for this sort of overconfidence: hubris. And hubris inevitably leads to nemesis: downfall and ruination. 

Stop Trump’s Greenland Madness Before it Gets Worse

Madness.

That’s the only way to describe President Trump’s obsession with seizing Greenland by whatever means necessary and no matter the cost. It’s a preoccupation that’s untethered from reality and lacks any rational justification.

Indeed, the shifting rationales offered by the Trump administration for this fixation do not add up and make zero sense.

Take the supposed national security justification for the annexation of Greenland: It’s impossible to say what the United States might gain from such a move because the United States would not gain anything from it. The U.S. military already possesses extensive access to Greenland thanks to the 1951 agreement between Washington and Copenhagen, and the Space Force maintains a base at Pituffik in the territory’s far north that helps monitor for ballistic missile attacks. Moreover, America is already committed to defending Greenland against aggression via Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty. Per that provision — invoked only once in response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack on the United States — an armed attack on Greenland, an autonomous and self-governing territory under Danish sovereignty, would be considered an attack on the United States itself. What’s more, the Danish government has already made crystal clear its willingness to discuss even deeper security cooperation with the United States in Greenland.

Put bluntly, there is no national security reason for the United States to annex or otherwise assume direct control over Greenland. Even if they could somehow mount a military expedition to Greenland, China and Russia could not “take over” the island without triggering Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty and provoking an American-led military response. It makes absolutely no sense for the U.S. government to idly contemplate destroying the alliance that obliges the United States to come to Greenland’s defense and tearing up a decades-old security agreement that gives the U.S. military wide-ranging access to the island in order to acquire Greenland itself, supposedly for national security purposes.

The mooted economic rationale for acquiring Greenland makes just as little sense. It’s true that Greenland possesses significant reserves of rare earth elements and other critical minerals, but it’s nowhere near the motherlode the Trump administration claims: indeed, the island’s rare earth reserves rank just below those of the United States itself. If American mining companies aren’t operating in Greenland, it’s due to a lack of interest rather than a lack of access: it’s almost certainly cost-prohibitive to mine these minerals given the ice sheet that covers the island, the remoteness of the deposits, and the near-total absence of necessary mining infrastructure. In short, it will take a long time and cost a lot of money to extract these minerals — and there are much easier prospects elsewhere.

Concern about possible Chinese attempts to corner the market for these resources does not justify an American attempt to seize Greenland itself. Such worries ought to motivate the United States to work more closely with Greenland’s own democratic government, Denmark, NATO, and the European Union to both bar Chinese investment in Greenland’s critical minerals and infrastructure, and more importantly, to invest more themselves in Greenland. (Canada and the United Kingdom hold 23 mining licenses each, the most of any one country.) Again, it makes no sense to destroy these relationships in the pursuit of presidential fantasies of territorial expansion.

So why does Trump appear dead-set on annexing Greenland, strategic and economic costs to the United States — to say nothing of America’s allies and the rest of the world — be damned?

Trump’s own ego and personal vanity appear to be a major factor, with the president telling New York Times reporters that ownership of Greenland is what he feels “is psychologically needed for success.” Annexing Greenland, in other words, will make Trump feel like a big man. He also seems to find Greenland a tempting target because — and I wish I were kidding — it looks “massive” on Mercator map projections that exaggerate the size of landmasses near the poles. 

More ominously, though, Trump’s drive to take Greenland any way he can is a logical outgrowth of his gangster-style approach to the world — and in particular his apparent desire to carve the globe up with his idol Vladimir Putin and Chinese dictator Xi Jinping. Echoing Putin’s nauseating pre-war assertions that Ukraine should “bear with” the Kremlin’s brutal impending invasion, “whether you like it or don’t like it,” Trump has vowed to “do something on Greenland  whether they like it or not.”

Congress has options to stop the madness, or at least make it more onerous for the Trump administration to try and make its twisted fantasies of territorial aggrandizement real.

First, Congress can preemptively deny Trump authority to use force or subversion against Greenland. Such a move would absolutely clear that any orders Trump may give to attack, subvert, or otherwise undermine Danish sovereignty over Greenland and Greenland’s own democratic institutions would be prima facie illegal and subject to refusal by responsible military officers and intelligence officials. It would also send a signal to Denmark and other NATO allies that Congress does not approve of Trump’s ambition to seize Greenland and that it lacks democratic legitimacy in the United States itself.

Congress can also explicitly bar the use of any funds to purchase Greenland or engage in any activities meant to subvert or otherwise undermine Danish sovereignty over the island. Last year, President Trump ordered the intelligence community to increase its spying on Greenland, and the Trump administration has reportedly considered sending Greenland residents cash payments of up to $100,000 if they support secession from Denmark and annexation by the United States — efforts that would not be eligible for funding under a Congressional funding band. Again, this move would be as much about sending signals to NATO allies and giving national security professionals strong grounds to refuse illegal orders as anything else.

Senators and representatives can also travel to Greenland, Denmark, and NATO headquarters in Brussels to show solidarity with these nations and the alliance as a whole. Indeed, a nine-member delegation led by Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) has already left for Copenhagen to, in Coons’ words, let the Danish government know “we understand the value of the partnership we have long had with them, and in no way seek to interfere in their internal discussions about the status of Greenland.” Once again, such visits would serve notice that Trump’s proposed aggression against Greenland lacks both support and legitimacy in Congress and the United States. Or as Coons put it, “I just think it’s important for us to be heard as strongly supporting NATO and our alliance.”

This list isn’t exhaustive, but it offers Congress a place to start if we hope to stop this insanity before it proceeds any further.

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: Germany’s Rearmament Is Stunning

The sign in the window of the German army’s storefront career center in downtown Berlin suggested it would be open all afternoon for inquiries about joining the armed forces, or Bundeswehr. But the doors were locked on a cold November day, with no lights on and no one inside. The same was true the next day when I tried again. “What kind of message does that send?” my friend, a former soldier who accompanied me, asked scornfully. “It’s like so much about the Bundeswehr these days—underfunded, undermanned, underequipped, and undervalued by the public, which still doesn’t really understand why Germany needs an army.”

Eighty years after the end of World War II, as Russia escalates attacks against Europe and the U.S. threatens to turn away from the transatlantic alliance, Germany is undergoing a historic shift. In 2022, then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it a Zeitenwende—a “watershed moment”—and mandated a one-off infusion of €100 billion in defense spending, nearly doubling Germany’s previous annual allocation. The first thing his successor, Friedrich Merz, did after being elected last year was to amend the constitution’s “brake” on borrowing to pay for weapons and ammunition. Germany is now on track to spend €650 billion on the military over the next five years, more than doubling the amount disbursed in the previous five years.

Just days before I visited that closed army career center, Merz’s coalition government agreed to a new conscription law that could double the number of men ready to fight, growing the Bundeswehr from 180,000 to 260,000 soldiers and building the reserve force to 200,000. (Women aren’t required to comply with the new requirements but may volunteer.)

There is no longer any doubt that Germany is broadly committed to rearmament. A prospect that might once have provoked anxiety in Europe and North America is now broadly welcomed in the West. But that doesn’t make it easy for the German people, shaped by decades of post-World War II pacifism.

Read more in Washington Monthly.