Jacoby for Washington Monthly: Europe Struggles to Respond to Russian Attacks

The Ukrainian team visiting Oslo in late August came armed with a hefty research report—73 packed pages of open-source intelligence and policy proposals designed to help Norway prepare for a confrontation with Russia. The most likely scenario, the paper warned, would be more like the Battle of Britain than Operation Barbarossa, Nazi Germany’s 3.8 million-man World War II invasion of the Soviet Union. Moscow is unlikely to send tanks or troops to Norway, the report said. Russian strongman Vladimir Putin knows he can’t win a direct military clash with NATO. More likely would be a combined blitz of drone assaults, sabotage, and cyberattacks—what the paper compiled by the Kyiv-based Sahaidachnyi Security Center and paid for by the Ukrainian drone manufacturer Buntar Aerospace called the “Battle of Norway.”

But even the hawkish Ukrainian team was unprepared for what hit Norway just days later on August 24. The day after Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre visited Kyiv, promising continued support and a fourth annual payment of $9.1 billion, a pro-Russia hacker group calling itself Server Killers startled the Nordic nation with social media post. “We declare cyber war” on Norway, the message read—white letters against a fiery background featuring an image of the Kremlin and a Russian flag.

Server Killers is an experienced hacking collective with documented Moscow connections and a long rap sheet—attacks in Britain, Canada, Denmark, Spain, and Romania. Over the next three days, it targeted Digdir, the agency overseeing Norway’s cutting-edge digitization of public services, bombarding its servers with so much spam that government websites stopped working for citizens. The “distributed denial of service attack” was the largest in Norway’s history—if not the start of the battle of Norway, certainly an alarming warning.

Disruptive as it was for Norwegians, the Server Killer attack hardly made international news—Russia is now launching so many so-called “hybrid” or “gray-zone” assaults on Europe that it can be hard to keep track of them.

Read more in Washington Monthly

Jacoby in Nordic Defence Watch: Denmark offers Ukraine’s arms makers a safe base to expand, expert explains

Ukraine’s defence industry sees several advantages in setting up production in Denmark.

So says Tamar Jacoby, the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. She writes regularly about the Ukrainian defence industry for American media and is a frequent expert commentator on the sector.

“Primarily, it’s about security and reducing the risk of being bombed. Most Ukrainian companies have distributed production sites across Ukraine and must hide where they are,” Jacoby says.

Read more in Nordic Defence Watch

Steitz for Radically Pragmatic: Republicans Are Running From Trump’s Foreign Policy Record

Republican Party leaders have promised that their midterm convention, which begins tonight in Dallas, will be a primetime “Trumpapalooza” — a mega pep rally aimed at showcasing the president’s supposed successes and revving up his most hardcore fans so that they’ll turn out to the polls in November.

But judging by the event’s agenda, there appears to be at least one piece of our unpopular president’s record that’s so obviously politically toxic that his party is not even willing to pay it lip service in front of an adoring crowd. Across the two days of speeches, there is not one mention of national defense or foreign policy anywhere in the program.

Historically, the omission of these topics from a Republican Party convention would have been unthinkable. Since the late 1980s, voters have traditionally trusted Republicans over Democrats when it comes to keeping the country safe from international terrorism and military threats — at times by very wide margins. During those years, the GOP embraced the mantle of Reagan’s “peace through strength” Cold War legacy, and attached themselves to the rally-around-the-flag response that carried the George W. Bush administration in the months and years after September 11, 2001.

Read more on Radically Pragmatic

Jacoby on Background Briefing with Ian Masters: Russia’s Strike on Ukraine’s Intel HQ and the Shootout Between Rival Ukrainian Intel Agents

Background Briefing with Ian Masters · Russia’s Strike on Ukraine’s Intel HQ and the Shootout Between Rival Ukrainian Intel Agents

We go to Kyiv to speak with Tamar Jacoby, the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. She was a senior writer and justice editor at Newsweek and, before that, the deputy editor of the New York Times op-ed page. She is the author of The Ukrainian Refugee Experience and she has an article at The Washington Monthly we discuss, “The New Normal in Kyiv, Ukraine: Nonstop attacks by Russian jet-powered drones empty supermarket shelves and terrorize civilians” as well as the shootout between rival Ukrainian intelligence agents and the Russian strike on Ukraine’s Intelligence HQ in Kyiv.”

 

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: The New Normal in Kyiv, Ukraine

Thursday, August 27, was the first day of the new normal, but it didn’t yet feel normal to any of us in Kyiv.

I counted 11 air raid alerts between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Each time, the sirens in my quiet residential neighborhood would tear through the air—an ear-splitting wail, impossible to ignore even after nearly five years of war. The next sound was often machine-gun fire—Ukrainian air defenses downing incoming drones and missiles—or, in other cases, a great booming thud as enemy munitions exploded not far away.

Sometimes it was several hours before the all-clear signal; in other instances, just a few minutes. But by Thursday’s end, the shocks had added up—I was a wreck, hardly able to concentrate. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Moscow had launched 140 attack drones that day.

Ukrainians are no longer surprised by nighttime air alerts. That’s been normal since 2022, albeit growing worse every year, with the number of incoming drones and missiles sometimes swelling to 700 in a single night. They’re also used to Iranian-made Shahed attack drones and the better-engineered Russian version known as Gerans. The Ukrainian military has developed highly effective layered defenses—electronic jamming, jet fighters, traditional anti-aircraft guns, truck-mounted machine guns, and a new generation of innovative drone interceptors—that can shoot down up to 90 percent of these slow-flying triangular platforms, generally just over 10 feet long with an eight-foot wingspan.

Read more in Washington Monthly

PPI: Yes to Stronger Sanctions on Russia and Support for Ukraine; No to Giving the Trump Administration New Tariff Authority

WASHINGTON (August 25, 2026) — Today, Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) experts on Ukraine, trade policy and national security issued the following statement on the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, applauding the additional financial and energy-market pressure the bill may put on Russia, but criticizing its very broad tariff authority and arguing that it should either be dropped or sharply circumscribed.

PPI’s Kyiv-based New Ukraine Project Director Tamar Jacoby, who offered extensive assessment of the bill in the Washington Monthly, said:

“Nearly five years of war — including a summer of spectacular Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries — have done serious damage to the Russian economy. The US can and should be doing more to help raise the cost for the Kremlin, and the Graham bill makes an important start. Now the House has an opportunity to improve the package by clarifying what Trump can and cannot do to implement it — strengthening the sanctions provisions while limiting the all-but unchecked tariff authority it hands the president.”

PPI Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets Ed Gresser said:

“With Russia’s military exhausted from its four-year full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Congress is right to increase economic pressure on Russia and countries supporting it. The bill’s financial and other sanctions are good steps. We can and should go further by banning Russian fertilizer — the U.S.’s major remaining import from Russia, now running at an average of $200 million a month this year. By contrast, the bill’s tariff section is unnecessary — the administration already has sanctions power under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — and dangerous. Unchecked authority to impose new tariffs on vague grounds, after the administration’s extensive and continuing misuse of laws such as Section 301 and Section 232, poses a high risk that Mr. Trump would use it not to pressure Russia but to further harass America’s neighbors and allies, and impose more costs on the American economy.  Last Thursday’s fiasco with Canada — a totally unnecessary breach with a friendly neighbor, with tariffs likely to cost Americans billions of dollars this fall — is a case in point. If this final bill is to include any tariff authority at all, therefore, the House should at minimum revise it to require a final Congressional vote of approval for any tariff increase on any country.”

PPI Director of National Security Policy Danielle Steitz said:

“The brave citizens of Ukraine have spent more than four years defending their nation from Russia’s illegal invasion, and it is heartening to see the U.S. Congress continue to send clear bipartisan signals of support. However, it is undeniable that President Trump has demonstrated his disregard of congressional intent time and time again, particularly around the topic of support to Ukraine. Just last month it was reported that the Department of Defense will not finish spending the $400 million that Congress authorized for Ukraine military assistance until fiscal year 2029, an unacceptable slow-rolling of aid that has rightly sparked bipartisan criticism on Capitol Hill. Instead of hoping that this time will be different, the House should adopt common-sense guardrails asserting Congress’s tariff powers and making its intent crystal clear: that this legislation’s purpose is to impose costs on Russia and to support Ukraine.”

Background: The Senate passed S. 5025, the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, on August 6, 2026, and the House of Representatives is preparing to consider it after its return from the August recess. The bill imposes new sanctions on Russian officials, businesses, and financial service providers, bans imports of Russian uranium (though not fertilizer, the largest single U.S. import from Russia). It also provides the Trump administration authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from three sets of countries: the five largest buyers of Russian oil, the five largest buyers of Russian natural gas, and the five countries most involved in helping Russia in some unspecified way avoid sanctions. With the House vote likely in early fall, PPI experts and Ukraine-watchers argue that while strengthening sanctions on Russia is urgent, the bill’s nearly unlimited tariff authority is unnecessary and invites further abuse by the Trump administration. They urge the House to make significant changes to the tariff section, and tighten U.S. sanctions further, before passage.

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us at @ppi.

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Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Jacoby in CEPA: Ukraine’s Defense Industry: The Motor of Post-War Revival

[…]

The shape of a defense-led recovery depends on whether Ukraine makes the right deals in Europe as it seeks to maximize the value of its expertise, according to Tamar Jacoby, director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project.

The defense sector has become increasingly decentralized to allow it to be flexible and innovate with real-time feedback from the frontline, but it means it often misses out on economies of scale.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has also, until recently, banned weapon exports, and deals that have been permitted so far have been time-consuming and stymied by bureaucracy. The businesses that flourish tend to be the ones with the right connections, Jacoby said.

Regulations need to be reformed to speed up processes, tackle corruption, and encourage the development of a robust defense export industry, which will attract talent.

Jacoby compares Ukraine to Israel, which was able to build on its military experience to fuel an economic and technological boom through sales of high-end, cutting-edge weaponry, supported by a government apparatus actively pushing exports.

[…]

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: Beyond Virtue Signaling on Ukraine and Russia

Just three days after the U.S. Senate voted overwhelmingly to advance the late Senator Lindsey Graham’s sweeping sanctions bill designed to force Russia to end the war in Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance called Ukrainian President Zelensky and asked him to stop bombarding oil tankers and terminals in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

A key backer of the Graham bill, Republican Katie Britt of Alabama, defended the statute passionately on the Senate floor. “We’re going to cut off the flow of money to [Russian dictator Vladimir] Putin,” Britt declared emphatically. But the international partnership that owns the tankers and terminals Vance asked Zelensky to spare, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), generates more than $1.4 billion a year for, among others, the Russian Federation, which owns or controls nearly a 50-percent share.

It’s not technically Russian oil that passes through the CPC’s thousand-mile pipeline and sprawling terminal complex—it’s crude from the vast oilfields in western Kazakhstan. But Russia profits handsomely from dividends, transit tariffs, and port fees. What’s complicated—and the reason Vance picked up the phone—is that U.S. energy giants Chevron and ExxonMobil also own significant shares of the Caspian pipeline.

Read more in Washington Monthly

Jacoby for Washington Monthly: The Next Big Thing in the Ukraine War: Ground Drones

We arrived at the headquarters of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade’s NC-13 strike unit just after 11 p.m. The soldier escorting me tells me to turn off my phone to avoid giving away our location, and we walk in silence through the night, then enter a darkened building. Deep inside, the operations room is buzzing with activity. Double-decker computer screens line the black walls. Radios crackle, a commander is barking orders, and a knot of plainclothes drone operators huddles quietly in a corner, poring over daytime satellite images of nearby fields and forests. “They’re plotting tonight’s route,” my escort tells me. Three kamikaze ground drones—unmanned vehicles, each about as big as a medium-sized dog—will travel overland for five or six hours to blow up a Russian bunker.

The Ukrainian defense industry is so innovative and dynamic—evolving in just five years from a few old-fashioned, Soviet-era manufacturers to global vanguard and pacesetter—that it is difficult to track all the groundbreaking developments. Already this year, Kyiv has upended the war with a new generation of long-range drones and missiles that have knocked out over one-third of Russia’s oil refining capacity. Closer to the battlefield, new mid-range drones are disrupting enemy supply lines and support logistics, dramatically slowing Russia’s advance. Most impactful for the U.S. and its Middle East allies, Ukrainian drone interceptors—whose widespread use began just over a year ago—helped Gulf states survive the Iranian Shahed strikes that threatened their cities this spring.

Yet many strategists in Ukraine and the West are focused on a different cutting-edge development, with several predicting that 2026 will be “the year of the unmanned ground vehicle.”

Keep reading in Washington Monthly.

Jacoby on WCPT: An Update on Ukraine

Edwin Eisendrath is joined by Tamar Jacoby , director of the New Ukraine Project at the Progressive Policy Institute and contributor to Washington Monthly; her latest article is “Could the Tide Be Turning Ukraine?” (The interview was recorded July 30 and aired August 1.)

Ainsley and Mattinson in Politico Magazine: A New Report Offers a Stark Warning to Centrists in France

Far-right politicians in Europe and the Americas have amassed support vowing to check the disruptions of globalization, promising strict borders and inward-looking economic and security policies.

In France, voters have another reason to consider the hard right: Many see no alternative.

That’s the conclusion of a new study of French voters conducted by Deborah Mattinson and Claire Ainsley, two prominent British political strategists. Mattinson and Ainsley, both affiliated with the center-left Progressive Policy Institute, have conducted focus groups with persuadable voters across Europe, the United States and Australia. For long-established political parties, the picture is bleak.

The collapse of the center and the rise of extremes is a global trend, confirmed in scores of elections and PPI’s international focus groups. Even in that bilious context, France stands out as a land of political desolation — a country where voters are so despairing and the center and left so depleted that Marine Le Pen, criminal conviction and all, may well be the next president.

“One of the things that came really clearly from these focus groups is that National Rally are on track to win because they are sort of the only show in town,” Mattinson told me, referring to Le Pen’s party.

The Mattinson-Ainsley research, which they shared with POLITICO Magazine, is arresting reading for anyone contending with the far right’s appeal to working-class communities, or hoping to resurrect a coalition nearer the center.

Read more in Politico

Ainsley and Mattinson for The Observer: Why working-class voters have turned their backs on Labour

Before Andy Burnham takes power on Monday, he could do worse than spend a moment reflecting on what happened to Keir Starmer’s landslide victory and 17% post-election poll lead. How did Starmer end up trailing Nigel Farage and Reform UK just two years later? Why have so many working-class voters once again turned their backs on Labour?

Many had returned in 2024 after leaving the party in 2019, but now feel deeply let down. Reflecting on this is well worth Burnham’s time because Labour’s relationship with working-class supporters, once its core vote, is in peril. Yet there is no route to a parliamentary majority without them.

Of course, this is not just an electoral imperative – championing the rights of working-class voters is most progressive parties’ moral mission.

Read more in the Observer

Trump’s Claims on Election Security, Foreign Influence Do Nothing but Weaken America’s Trust in Elections

WASHINGTON (July 17, 2026) — Today, Danielle Steitz, Director of National Security Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), released the following statement in response to President Donald Trump’s speech yesterday evening on election security:

“Six years ago, Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden. This simple fact has become taboo to utter in the Republican Party because Donald Trump cannot and will not accept it. Trump’s address last night, where he alleged that China had interfered with the 2020 presidential election, would be laughable if the implications for American democracy were not so serious.

“The president’s claims of Chinese interference are not substantiated by any of the documents whose declassification he has directed. The intelligence community’s assessment has been clear from the start — there are no indications that any foreign actor attempted to alter any technical aspect of the voting process in the 2020 U.S. elections, including voter registration, casting ballots, vote tabulation, or reporting results. The cherry-picked declassification of intelligence reports from singular, unvetted human sources with no corroboration or verification is yet another example of Trump weaponizing the vital work of American intelligence for personal gain.

“To be clear, foreign influence operations around U.S. elections remain a bipartisan concern, and there is much to be done to strengthen resilience against these efforts to exacerbate divisions in American society. If President Trump wished to confront these issues, he could reverse the drastic cuts his administration has made to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. He could restore the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force, the intelligence community’s Foreign Malign Influence Center, and the State Department’s Counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Office — all three organizations that were slashed or shuttered by members of his cabinet. Instead, Trump chooses grievance politics and rambling White House speeches that only weaken American trust in free and fair elections.

“The president and his administration would do well to listen to the recommendation approved by their colleague Marco Rubio in 2020: given the ‘significant national security and electoral consequences’ of allegations around the safety of elections, ‘sitting officials and candidates should use the absolute greatest amount of restraint and caution if they are considering publicly calling the validity of an upcoming election into question.’ Trump’s continued crusade of unsubstantiated allegations that call democratic elections into question only serves the interests of foreign adversaries who wish to see America weakened and divided.”

Founded in 1989, PPI is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Find an expert and learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Follow us at @PPI.

###

Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Jacoby on CNN: The impact of Ukraine Patriot System Manufacturing and What It Is Like to Endure a Russian Attack

Jacoby appeared on CNN to discuss her experience of the Russian bombardment of Kyiv on the July 2 Russian bombardment of Kyiv. She described navigating the attacks firsthand and addressed the pending approval for Ukraine to begin manufacturing Patriot interceptors to strengthen its defense capabilities. Also, Jacoby noted that this approval remains contingent on President Trump, highlighting that while his current support is encouraging, uncertainty persists regarding his long-term commitment and the level of cooperation from industry partners.

Jacoby on Background Briefing: What it is Like to Have Russian Missiles and Drones Heading for Your Apartment Building

Background Briefing with Ian Masters · What it is Like to Have Russian Missiles and Drones Heading For Your Apartment Building

We speak with Tamar Jacoby, the Kyiv-based director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s New Ukraine Project. She was a senior writer and justice editor at Newsweek and, before that, the deputy editor of the New York Times op-ed page. She is the author of The Ukrainian Refugee Experience and as Putin intensifies his bombardment of civilian targets in Kyiv ahead of the NATO summit after a 90 minute phone call with Trump on the 4th of July, we discuss what it is like when Russian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and swarms of drones are heading for your apartment building

Steitz on Substack: NATO is Facing a Catch-22 Thanks to Trump

The administration wants its European allies to spend more on American weapons, but is making it impossible for them to do so.

As the leaders of NATO’s 32 member nations arrive this week in Turkey to discuss their implementation plans for a record military buildup, some are rightly starting to worry that Donald Trump has plunged them into a classic Catch-22.

On the one hand, the U.S. president has demanded that Europe spend more on its own defense and buy more American-made weapons. On the other hand, his administration is making it increasingly impossible to do just that by delaying the delivery of already-purchased weapons systems and implementing changes restricting future sales.

The paradox is drawing frustrated Joseph Heller references in Europe. And if it isn’t somehow resolved, it could fatally undermine Trump’s own stated goal of having the continent shoulder more of its own protection.

Trump’s pressure was instrumental in nudging America’s NATO allies to commit to spending 5% of GDP each year on defense by 2035 at last year’s summit in the Hague, up from the old 2% threshold that was itself rarely met. Since then, the administration has continued signaling that Europe will not be able to rely on America alone for its defense.

Over the past 8 weeks alone, the U.S. has notified allies that the United States would be reducing its contributions to the NATO Force Model and has announced a six-month review of its military posture in Europe. These actions are being undertaken by the U.S. under the guise of creating “NATO 3.0,” a European-led, “post-Cold War embodiment of the defense alliance” which the Department of Defense describes as “what President Donald J. Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth believe the alliance should be.”

Continue reading on Substack.