The Daily Beast: California Democrats Should Heed Obama on Trade, Not Labor

If any state ought to be pro-trade, it’s California. America’s second-largest exporter, after Texas, the Golden State boasts 840 miles of coastline rimming the burgeoning Asia-Pacific economy, as well as the nation’s busiest port, Los Angeles. Trade supports the jobs of more than 1 in 5 Californians.

Yet most of California’s overwhelmingly Democratic Congressional delegation refuses to support President Obama’s trade agenda.

Only two of the state’s 39 House Democrats – Reps. Ami Bera of Sacramento and Jim Costa of Fresno – have publicly backed Obama’s request for trade negotiating authority (or TPA in Washington speak). The rest are either opposed or undeclared. Has this famously entrepreneurial, outward-looking and future-oriented state suddenly caught the protectionist virus?

Not likely. It’s true that trade has become a tough issue for Democrats in recent decades as California has become more liberal. But the White House did manage to muster double-digit support among House Democrats there for pacts with Korea and Panama. The paucity of support this time may reflect Obama’s declining clout, but it’s also a testament to the success of a ham-fisted campaign of political intimidation spearheaded by organized labor.

In a raw display of financial muscle, the AFL-CIO has frozen all contributions to Democrats until after the TPA vote. Not only that, but labor and anti-trade “progressives” promise to spend lavishly on primary challenges to defeat Democrats, and if that doesn’t work, to spend more against them in the general election – to the benefit of Republicans.

Remember that the next time you hear progressives bemoaning the sinister power of money in American politics.  It’s insidious all right, but it’s hardly confined to the Koch brothers and right-wing super PACs.

Continue reading at the Daily Beast.

The Washington Post: It’s hard to be a moderate politician. It’s also more expensive.

PPI Senior Fellow Anne Kim wrote an opinion piece for The Washington Post comparing liberal versus moderate Democratic campaign spending. Her analysis shows in the past three election cycles, self-described moderate lawmakers spent roughly twice as much as their liberal counterparts to win or defend their seats. In 2014, moderates outspent their liberal colleagues by a margin greater than 3 to 1 when all campaign spending is included.

This analysis is a follow up to a 2011 policy memo by Kim, The “Centrist Premium”: The High Cost of Moderation. 

Read Kim’s opinion piece for The Washington Post here.

PPI Applauds Senate Passage of TPA

PPI applauds the Senate for passing Trade Promotion Authority and taking a key step in assuring that America continues to be a global leader in crafting strong, progressive trade rules that will help grow our economy and support good jobs—while also advancing important American values.

As PPI has detailed in recent reports on the Administration’s trade agenda and open digital trade, new U.S. trade agreements can make vital progress on issues that are important to Democrats and progressives. They can, for example, tap a growing global middle class to power more inclusive American economic growth, expand the reach of strong rules on labor rights and environment protection, reform past agreements like NAFTA, and “democratize” trade by empowering entrepreneurs, small businesses, and consumers to more directly participate in and benefit from global commerce.

TPA would provide a fair and more open process for considering new trade agreements, and would obligate future Administrations—both Democrat and Republican—to pursue these and other progressive provisions in future trade agreements, as well.

Finally, today’s vote illustrates the leverage that pro-growth, pro-trade Democrats can exercise in trade debates. As trade legislation moves to the House, PPI urges Democrats to continue to work constructively to build smart, progressive policies that enhance America’s global competitiveness. In addition to support for TPA, these efforts should include a comprehensive program of reform—in education, training, innovation, infrastructure, and more—like that proposed in the New Democrat Coalition’s American Prosperity Agenda. Unlike reflexive opposition to new trade initiatives, this approach will assure that America—and more Americans—can share in the significant benefits of global growth.

Creating New Pathways into Middle Class Jobs

Many policy ideas on how to reduce income inequality and improve the upward mobility of low-income Americans are gaining popularity, on both sides of the political aisle. As usual, Republicans suggest that tax cuts heavily tilted towards the rich can address these problems, though many of their proposals would actually worsen inequality and mobility. Populist Democrats’ proposals include minimum wage increases, gender pay equity and the like—which deserve support but would have very modest effects on overall inequality and mobility into the middle class. If we want to have large impacts on these problems, and create systemic rather than mostly symbolic effects, there is only one place to go: postsecondary education or other skills by low-income workers, and whether they get the kinds of jobs that reward these skills in the job market.

Most job training in the United States now occurs in community and for-profit colleges, as well as the lower-tier of four-year colleges. We send many young people to college, even among the disadvantaged, but completion rates are very low and earnings are uneven for graduates. The public colleges that the poor attend lack not only resources but also incentives to respond to the job market. Approaches like sectoral training and career pathways, which combine classroom and work experience, show promise but need to be scaled, while employers need greater incentives to create middle-paying jobs.

This report proposes a three-part strategy for equipping more Americans with new tools for economic mobility and success: 1) A “Race to the Top” program in higher education, where the federal government would help states provide more resources to their community (and perhaps four-year) colleges but also require them to provide incentives and accountability for the colleges based on their student completion rates and earnings of graduates; 2) Expanding high-quality career and technical education along with work-based learning models like apprenticeship; and, 3) Giving employers incentives to create more good jobs.

 

Download “2015.05-Holzer_Creating-New-Pathways-into-Middle-Class-Jobs”

Productivity Growth Continues to Plunge: Why A Growth Policy Is Necessary

Should progressives focus more on promoting growth, or fostering redistribution? The unfortunate fact is that we live in an era of weak productivity growth.  That means growth policies to encourage investment and innovation are essential for broad prosperity.

Based on today’s release from the BLS, ten-year productivity growth has now plunged to 1.4%, the lowest level since the 1980s (see chart below).  By comparison, ten-year productivity growth was 2.2% when Bill Clinton left office at the end of 2000, and hit a high of 3% at the end of 2005.

Productivity growth is the central force determining the size of the economic pie. Without productivity gains, living standards cannot show a sustainable rise.

 

Certainly real compensation growth is very weak as well. However, the difference between ten-year productivity growth and ten-year real compensation growth has also been narrowing.  It was 1.1 percentage points as of the first quarter of 2015, after peaking at 1.7 percentage points in 2011. That difference of 1.1 percentage points is only slightly above the 50-year average of 0.8 percentage points.

To put it a slight different way, real compensation growth has fallen from 1.5% in 2000 to 0.3% today, a catastrophic drop. However, two-thirds of that plunge can be attributed to a drop in productivity growth (from 2.2% to 1.4%), and only one-third to a widening of the gap between productivity and compensation growth. 

My conclusion: The sharp fall in productivity growth is the major reason why Americans feel so squeezed. Growth policies are key.

 

Marshall for CNN: Suddenly Britain looks like Italy

Staid old Britain suddenly looks more like Italy. No less than seven parties are vying for seats in the parliamentary election taking place Thursday, a contest that has underscored the unraveling of any national consensus around certain fundamental assumptions about Britain’s role in Europe, its special relationship with the United States and even its own political cohesion and identity. But perhaps what’s most distressing about the campaign debate, from a trans-Atlantic perspective, is its utter insularity.

On Prime Minister David Cameron’s watch, Britain’s customary global role seems to be shrinking before our eyes. Indeed, London has been absent from the Ukraine crisis and has played only a marginal role in the U.S.-led campaign against ISIS. Meanwhile, to the consternation of UK military chiefs, Cameron reportedly refused to guarantee defense spending would not sink below the NATO-recommended threshold of 2% of gross domestic product. Britain’s army is reportedly set to be smaller than it was in Napoleonic times.

“David Cameron has presided over the biggest loss of influence for our country in a generation,” charges Ed Miliband, the main opposition Labour Party leader. While chiding the government’s “pessimistic isolationism,” however, Miliband seems likely to disappoint those looking to revive Anglo-American ties. His outlook on foreign policy seems to be an amalgam of soft multilateralism and post-Iraq wariness of security cooperation with Washington. Indeed, when challenged to show he is tough enough to confront Vladimir Putin, Miliband instead cited his opposition to President Barack Obama’s calls for strikes on Syria in response to chemical attacks on civilians. “I think standing up to the leader of the free world shows a certain toughness,” he said.

Continue reading at CNN.

Governor Markell for The Atlantic: Americans Need Jobs, Not Populism

In an op-ed for The Atlantic, Governor Jack Markell (D-Del.) argues that instead of raging against a “rigged” system, Democrats should work together with business to build an economy that distributes its benefits more broadly.

The bottom line is that private enterprise creates the primary condition for reducing poverty and want: economic growth. Governments don’t create jobs; however, government has an ability and responsibility to create a nurturing environment where business leaders and entrepreneurs want to locate and expand. What that means is that government has an active role in creating an economic environment that creates middle class success and prosperity. …

Long-term success requires an active government that partners with business to ensure that the bounty of economic growth is shared broadly. Sharing this bounty is not about having a “bleeding heart.” It’s a matter of cold economic sense.  

I am hugely bullish about the future of the American economy because I believe in investing in people, engaging with the world and sharing broadly the bounty that economic growth will generate. Growing without sharing won’t get it done.  And neither will redistribution without growth. Americans really are in this together.

Read the piece in its entirety at The Atlantic.

The Hill: Pelosi’s choice: Obama or left?

Ed Gerwin, PPI Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity, was quoted in the The Hill on how Nancy Pelosi is confronting a conundrum on trade as she walks a delicate line between the president she champions and the caucus she leads:

Ed Gerwin, a trade expert with the Progressive Policy Institute, a rare liberal group that supports the fast-track bill, said Pelosi’s reticence is bolstering Obama’s hand.

“Whether or not she ends up as a supporter, what she has been doing is very helpful in trying to get to yes, on trade,” Gerwin said. “What Pelosi has been doing, combined with the significant efforts by Wyden in the Senate, may allow Democrats to put more of a stamp on trade and may help some members keep an open mind on TPA and eventual trade deals.”

Read the piece in its entirety at The Hill.

CNN: Why trade is in the national interest

Withstanding intense pressure from anti-trade “progressives” — an oxymoron if ever there was one — Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, has struck a deal with Congressional Republicans to move a bipartisan trade promotion authority bill.

Wyden’s display of grit is good news for the cooling U.S. economy, which needs a lift from export-led growth; for American workers, who need the jobs and rising pay that come with rising exports and stronger growth; and for President Barack Obama, who needs the authority to complete negotiations over three major trade pacts and get them through Congress.

Wyden is a staunch liberal, but one with an independent streak who’d rather solve problems than strike poses. But committing acts of political leadership is dangerous in Washington these days, and Wyden can expect more abuse from “populists” within his own party. That’s a shame, because the Oregon Democrat has actually moved trade promotion authority (TPA) in a more progressive direction.

Continue Reading at CNN

The Hill: Is it that hard for a party to hold the White House for three terms?

Going into 2016, Democrats seem to face a daunting challenge in holding the presidency for a third consecutive term. Indeed, this feat has only been accomplished once since 1950, when George H.W. Bush succeeded the highly popular Ronald Reagan in 1988. However, a closer look at the historical record may give Democrats more reason for hope.

Looking back, long runs of single-party dominance were once the norm in American politics. Republicans won four consecutive terms between 1896 and 1908, and three more in the 1920s. The Democrats then had a five-term juggernaut from 1932 to 1948.

Granted, this was a long time ago, and these streaks followed turning-point elections that produced enduring political realignments heavily favoring one party over the other, namely Republicans after 1896 and then Democrats after 1932. In recent decades, the two major parties have been more evenly matched and have more regularly alternated in the White House.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Taxing Intangibles: The Law of Unintended Consequences

Can efforts to put new and stricter tax rules on tech and other knowledge companies actually backfire and hurt global growth?

There’s a sense of outrage and worry in Europe that American tech giants such as Google and Apple seem to be beating European rivals soundly. At the same time, governments claim that many global companies—including but not exclusively American tech companies—have been able to game the international tax system to great advantage. Given the need for revenue to support social benefits, that puts global companies in the cross-hairs of policymakers.

In an effort to stop global companies from escaping the grasp of domestic tax collectors, experts at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Paris-based group of developed countries, are developing a new set of principles for international tax cooperation. This effort, known as the Base Ero-sion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project, has resulted in a series of documents out-lining some of these new principles, with more to come over the next year

These new principles—called ‘Actions’—are intended to transform the global tax system. As one OECD document says: “The BEPS project marks a turning point in the history of international co-operation on taxation.” (OECD 2013). Moreover, even though international tax policy is generally a matter for bilateral treaties be-tween individual governments—the BEPS project is developing the first multilat-eral “instrument” that would supersede and modify existing bilateral treaties.

Download “2015.04-Mandel_Taxing-Intangibles_The-Law-of-Unintended-Consequences.pdf”

The Hill: How the Obama trade agenda can advance progressive goals

In the last month, protesters have camped out in the Washington office of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and have even flown a 30-foot blimp over his town halls in Oregon. The senator’s offense? As the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, Wyden is negotiating with the Obama administration and pro-trade Republicans and Democrats on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)—legislation that would set requirements for new trade agreements and rules for how they’re considered by Congress.

Wyden believes that—if done right—new trade deals with Asia (TPP) and Europe (TTIP) coupled with strong enforcement can promote stronger growth and good jobs in his trade-dependent state, while also advancing important values like environmental protection, labor rights and an open Internet.

For the protesters, however, opposition to free trade agreements is an article of faith in their version of the progressive cannon.  Since the great NAFTA debate of the 1990s, trade has often been a polarizing issue among progressives. But key developments since then—the rise of China, the dramatic growth in digital trade via the Internet, and concerns about a long-term slowdown in U.S. growth—give progressives good reasons to think again.

Trade-skeptical Democrats should use the debate on Trade Promotion Authority to take a fresh look at President Obama’s far-reaching trade initiatives. As we’ve detailed in a recent Progressive Policy Institute report, open-minded progressives can find many examples of how the Administration is combining smart trade policy and progressive ideals to advance vital goals while strengthening both the United States and the global economy:

Tapping into Global Growth. Assuring that Americans have a fairer slice of the economic pie is easier when the pie is growing.

In the past, America’s middle class fueled growth in the rest of the world. Now, an exploding global middle class—especially in Asia—can return the favor. By 2030, Asia will add 1.2 billion new middle class consumers to the global economy. These global consumers will want to buy what America has to sell—from wholesome food and cutting-edge consumer products to modern financial services and health care.

Trade initiatives like the TPP can help America’s businesses and workers tap into growing global demand by eliminating high duties, discriminatory standards, and other significant barriers to U.S. exports.  And­—if combined with progressive initiatives in areas like education and training—growing trade can help support broad-based American prosperity.

Democratizing Trade. Trade agreements can also “democratize” trade by empowering small business and global consumers.

The Internet and services like eBay and FedEx make it increasingly possible for America’s small exporters to sell globally as easily as their bigger rivals. Small firms that export do well—with 20 percent greater productivity and 20 percent higher job growth than those that don’t. But an array of trade barriers—including high duties and fees and complex standards—still make it difficult for smaller exporters to compete.

U.S. trade negotiators are focusing intensively on eliminating small business trade barriers in the TPP and T-TIP. And they’re working to foster a robust trade ecosystem for small traders by promoting transparent rules, open electronic commerce, and strong protection for innovation. Opening up modern Internet-enabled trade can provide global consumers with greater choice, freedom, and economic power, as well.

Leading on Fairer Trade. Trade agreements like TPP and T-TIP help America lead coalitions of like-minded countries that seek a fairer global trading system in which abuses like exploiting workers, despoiling the environment, or blocking the Internet are not longer accepted means of competition.

Based on a 2007 deal initiated by House Democrats, U.S. trade agreements now include strong and enforceable rules that require trading partners to abide by and enforce fundamental labor rights and key environmental laws and agreements. TPP and T-TIP negotiations afford the opportunity to extend these—and other important progressive principles—to two-thirds of global trade. If America doesn’t lead, however, countries like China may succeed with a competing trade model—one that ignores values like worker rights, environmental protection, and an open Internet.

Updating Trade Rules.  New trade deals also provide the opportunity to update old trade rules and write important new ones.

Critics of NAFTA, for example, have long complained that its “side agreements” on labor and the environment contain weaker requirements that are neither part of NAFTA nor enforceable under that agreement. Negotiating with Canada and Mexico in the TPP can help assure that trade with America’s first and third largest trading partners is governed by strong, modern, and enforceable labor and environmental rules.

Additionally, new trade agreements can address an array of emerging challenges to U.S. trade, including State-Owned Enterprises that use government subsidies and special privileges to gain unfair advantages, and a growing list of barriers to innovation and electronic commerce.

Supporting a Progressive Growth Agenda. Finally, progressives can use a thoughtful trade debate to remind colleagues that trade is only one piece of America’s larger economic puzzle.

A new study by Progressive Economy concludes that trade is likely not a major cause—nor a major solution—for the serious problem of income inequality. The study notes that trade policy can make key contributions by, for example, driving stronger growth and reducing high duties that particularly impact lower-income Americans.  But, ultimately, solving America’s major economic problems will also require many domestic initiatives long championed by progressives, including better access to education and training, and investment in innovation and infrastructure.

When it comes to trade, not all progressive-leaning Americans are flying protest blimps. Indeed, according to recent polling, some 60 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of millennials believe that trade deals like TPP and T-TIP are “good” for America. It’s time for progressives to avoid reflexive opposition and take a fresh look at the U.S. trade agenda.

The Iran deal and collective security

A buoyant President Obama announced on April 2 “a historic understanding with Iran” to defang its nuclear program. Chalk one up for the president’s oft-criticized Middle East diplomacy.

If it holds, the deal will indeed be a major foreign policy accomplishment for a president who badly needs one. But equally, if not more important, it could breathe new life into collective security.

That’s the vision of liberal internationalists like Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman. After the colossal failure of balance-of-power politics to keep peace in Europe, they envisioned a new order upheld by great powers acting through legitimizing organizations like the United Nations and formal alliances like NATO.

Continue reading at the Hill.

Rotherham: No Congressional District Left Behind

In an op-ed today for U.S. News & World Report, Andrew Rotherham, cofounder and partner at Bellwether Education Partners, intriguingly argues that the best school reform idea is to fix the gerrymandering of legislative districts:

One of the interesting things about my job is that wealthy people ask me for ideas about how best to use their resources to improve America’s schools. There are plenty of important issues demanding attention: overhauling the sorry state of teacher preparation and teacher policy (I wrote an entire guidebook about that), giving low-income Americans more educational choice and improving educational finance are three obvious ones. But, to the consternation of colleagues in the education world, I don’t first suggest those or other specific education issues. Instead, I urge donors to support efforts to reform congressional redistricting. We won’t be able to genuinely improve our schools (or address a host of other issues) until we create legislative districts based on geography rather than gerrymandering.

Read the op-ed in its entirety at U.S. News & World Report. 

The Hill: With Schumer likely next Senate Dem leader, a trend is broken

The announcement that Harry Reid will be retiring from the Senate in 2016, and likely succeeded by Chuck Schumer of New York as Democratic leader, would break a long streak in which floor leaders of the Senate — both majority and minority leaders — have predominantly hailed from smaller states. It’s a little-recognized pattern that for several decades has expanded the influence of small states that are already greatly overrepresented in the Senate by virtue of the equal-representation principle that allocates two senators to each state.

he pattern is undeniable: No Senate floor leader since Republican Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania left the minority leadership in 1977 has been from one of the nine largest states, which cumulatively make up more than half of the U.S. population. Indeed, nearly all Senate leaders have been from the bottom half of the states when ranked by population, including some of the very smallest in the Union.

To wit: Over the past three decades, the Republican leaders in the Senate have been Howard Baker of Tennessee (17th-largest state today), Bob Dole of Kansas (34th), Trent Lott of Mississippi (31st), Bill Frist of Tennessee (17th) and currently Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (26th).

Continue reading at the Hill.

The Hill: Obama trade agenda

PPI President Will Marshall was quoted by Kevin Cirilli in The Hill on the growing tensions in the Democratic party over President Obama’s trade agenda:

Will Marshall, president of centrist Democratic think tank the Progressive Policy Institute, said that “Democratic candidates in 2016 aren’t going to get into trouble for supporting” the trade agreements.

“Most voters understand that America can’t prosper in isolation and they have little interest in yet another reenactment of the long-ago battle of NAFTA,” he said.

Continue reading at The Hill.