issue: Politics

Marshall for The Hill: Democrats Pay the Price for Ignoring Working Americans

Posted on by Alex Terr

Having fired Donald Trump in 2020, U.S. voters did an about-face Tuesday and sent him back to the White House. It was a remarkable political rebound, but one that owed as much to the Democratic Party’s weakness as it did to Trump’s strengths.

Despite heavily outspending her opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris carried not one battleground state in failing to reassemble the solid anti-Trump majority of four years ago. She also lagged behind Joe Biden’s 2020 performance with key Democratic-leaning groups: young voters, Hispanics, Blacks and even women.

The demographic and geographic sweep of Trump’s victory is impressive. He made inroads among urban and suburban voters, independents, young men and non-white working-class voters. The U.S. political map is getting redder.

Most importantly, Trump improved his 2020 performance with Hispanics by 25 points, despite his dehumanizing rhetoric about immigrants. Overall, he won 46 percent of the Hispanic vote, the most ever for a Republican presidential candidate.

The electorate’s rightward shift has sparked heady talk among Republicans about a new U.S. political alignment around education level and social class rather than traditional left-right polarities. It certainly is a rebuke to the left, which has been hailing the advent of a new progressive majority for much of this century.

Read more in The Hill.

Marshall on Medium: It’s Not the Economy, Stupid — It’s Trump

Posted on by Max Sherrill

America’s grand experiment in democratic self-rule was launched 236 years ago in Philadelphia. Since then, it’s survived a Civil War, the Depression, wars hot and cold, and disruptive waves of economic and social change.

In today’s presidential election, it faces another major test. The central question before the voters isn’t the cost of living, immigration, or abortion. It’s repairing the health and effectiveness of America’s political and governing institutions.

Donald Trump adores self-aggrandizing superlatives, so let’s indulge him: He is beyond doubt the most successful demagogue in U.S. history. But he’s already proven that he doesn’t know how to unite and lead our country. Instead, he “wins” by magnifying our differences and setting Americans at each other’s throats.

We know exactly what to expect if he wins: Four years of intensifying social conflict, political chaos, and partisan hatred. Kamala Harris may not be perfect, but she offers at least a chance to deescalate today’s ugly civil strife and revive the norms of honesty, mutual respect, and civility that make self-government work.

Keep reading in Medium.

Malec for The Hill: Harris’s closing message must separate her vision from Biden’s

Posted on by Max Sherrill

“Just win, baby.”

While acknowledging her unpopularity in swing districts, that was what then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said in 2018 to vulnerable Democratic incumbents and challengers weighing the political calculation of opposing her as House Democratic leader.

Ultimately, that distancing from Pelosi worked for several incumbent and aspiring House Democrats, helping the party maximize its gains while taking back the House. Most notably in red Pennsylvania District 17, Republicans ran ads trying to link underdog challenger Conor Lamb to Pelosi, cheekily calling him one of “Nancy Pelosi’s sheep.” Yet the attack never resonated. From the beginning, Lamb vowed that he would not support Pelosi. He ended up winning the hotly contested special election, pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the cycle.

We’re now seeing a similar dynamic in this year’s presidential election. While Harris should certainly not repudiate any of President Biden’s policies that she has supported as vice president, the same underlying imperative to create more political distance exists.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Ainsley in CNN: The Kamala Harris playbook has already worked in Britain. But the ‘Special Relationship’ is getting more complicated

Posted on by Max Sherrill

The official line from Starmer’s government is unwavering: London will work constructively with whoever wins the presidential contest.

But sources see similarities between Starmer and Harris’ backgrounds, ideologies and paths to power – and several of Starmer’s allies are hoping the strategy that worked for him will help Harris too.

“There are some really striking parallels,” Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former executive director of policy, told CNN. “The voters that Harris needs to persuade and motivate are very similar to the description of the voters that Labour needed to persuade and motivate.”

Ainsley, who now heads the Project on Center-Left Renewal at the Progressive Policy Institute think tank, presented findings from Labour’s electoral victory to senior Democratic strategists and pollsters in Washington DC last month.

Her trip was part of a wider sharing of information between the two camps that is longstanding – and cuts both ways – but which is irking former President Donald Trump in the final stretches of the campaign. Trump launched an extraordinary spat with Labour on Wednesday, claiming through a lawyer they had been interfering in the election.

Read more in CNN.

Marshall for The Hill: The Many Ways Donald Trump Threatens American Prosperity

Posted on by Alex Terr

A healthy U.S. economy is finally emerging from inflation’s shadow, enabling Americans to see and feel its underlying strengths. Is the good news coming in time to give Vice President Kamala Harris a boost in the November election?

Normally, a vibrant economy lifts political incumbents, but polls show U.S. voters are still preoccupied with high living costs. Harris offers a slew of proposals for driving down the cost of housing, food, health care and other necessities.

That’s essential, but with inflation and interest rates falling, Democrats have a stronger economic hand to play. They can point at growing evidence that working families are benefiting from the U.S. economic boom, and point out that Donald Trump’s slapdash economic ideas and frantic pandering threaten to derail it.

Research by my colleague Michael Mandel shows that with inflation easing, wages for working-class Americans have risen higher than they were on Election Day 2020. In other words, U.S. workers are better off today than they were under Trump.

In addition to milder headwinds from inflation, Mandel attributes the rise in real wages to a revival of U.S. productivity growth, driven by a combination of strong government and corporate investment since 2020.

Keep reading in The Hill. 

Marshall for The Hill: Democracy and Reality Are on the Ballot

Posted on by Alex Terr

As Kamala Harris and Donald Trump sprint toward the finish of the shortened 2024 presidential race, it is time to ask: What issue should be foremost in U.S. voters’ minds when they cast their ballots?

It’s not the cost of living, immigration, abortion or foreign wars, though all are critically important. Overshadowing them is this election’s meta-issue — the insistent question that just won’t go away: Can Americans entrust their democratic institutions and traditions to a vengeful Trump and a Republican Party he has remade in his image?

Trump is acutely aware of the danger in that question. He accuses Harris and “radical leftists” of posing the real threat to U.S. democracy.

With trademark disregard for honesty, civility and intellectual coherence, Trump piles on the insults, calling the vice president a socialist-communist-fascist dumbbell who’s “mentally impaired” to boot.

It’s ugly and nonsensical, but, hey, it’s Trump; in his carnival barker playbook, making sense is for losers.

Keep reading in The Hill.

PPI Report Highlights Key Strategies for Democrats to Win Working-Class Voters

Posted on by Max Sherrill

WASHINGTON — The 2024 UK General Election was nothing short of extraordinary, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party securing a sweeping victory. But beneath the celebration lies a critical divide: Labour dominated the graduate vote, yet it lagged behind among non-graduates, an electorate that remains pivotal to long-term success. If Labour wants to sustain its victory — and if Democrats in the U.S. hope to learn from it — there is work to be done.

Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) unveiled a new report, Winning Working Britain: Work and the Economy, authored by Claire Ainsley, Director of the Project on Centre-Left Renewal at PPI. The report reveals that Labour’s margin among working-class voters was far narrower than its lead among graduates, and if the party is to maintain its electoral strength, it must address the needs of non-graduates, who remain skeptical.

“Labour’s success in winning back working-class voters is a remarkable achievement, but to build a sustainable coalition, the party must pay greater attention to non-graduates,” said Ainsley. “The same lesson applies to Democrats in the U.S. who have long struggled to balance their support base between college-educated voters and those without degrees.”

The report highlights key policies favored by working-class voters, particularly non-graduates. Among these, the top priority is affordable non-degree pathways to well-paying jobs, such as short-term training programs that combine work and learning. British workers also expressed a strong desire for more well-paid jobs that don’t require a university degree, especially in trades and the digital economy — sectors they see as offering the best opportunities for their children.

“Labour’s challenge now is to deliver on these economic aspirations. By focusing on expanding non-degree career opportunities and boosting wages for those without a college education, the party can bridge the gap and ensure its long-term success,” Ainsley added.

The report concludes with actionable recommendations for center-left parties, emphasizing the need to elevate the voices and interests of non-graduates. It serves as a roadmap not only for Labour but also for Democrats in the U.S. as they seek to rebuild their own coalition ahead of the 2024 elections.

Read and download the report here.

For further U.S.-focused insights, former PPI Director of Workforce Development Policy Taylor Maag highlights better career alternatives to college and offers specific policy recommendations for the U.S. audience in her report, “Career Pathways: How to Create Better Alternatives to College.”

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Find an expert at PPI and follow us on Twitter.

###

Media Contact: Ian O’Keefe – iokeefe@ppionline.org

Ainsley for LabourList: ‘Why Labour needs to be the champion for non-graduates too’

Posted on by Max Sherrill

By Claire Ainsley

The July general election result was extraordinary in many ways, not least because of the stark divide in the votes of graduates and non-graduates. Labour ate up votes amongst those with a university degree, defeating the Conservatives by 42 points to 18.

But the Tories did slightly better than Labour amongst those with GCSEs or lower (31 vs 28). And if Reform hadn’t stood, that gap might have been wider, as 23% opted for Reform this time around.

With a 411 majority, its tempting to bank the wins. But in the longer term, and certainly by the time of the next election, Labour would do well to pay attention to how the party can improve its position amongst non-graduates.

Keep reading in LabourList.

Winning Working Britain: Work and the Economy

Posted on by Max Sherrill

Introduction

On 4th July 2024, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party achieved a landslide victory at the UK General Election, winning 411 out of 650 parliamentary seats in towns, cities, suburbs across England, Scotland and Wales.

Labour reversed its historic decline amongst working-class voters, as a result of a specific strategy to reconnect the party with voters that had formed a critical part of their founding electoral coalition. This matters not just for its symbolism, but because there is simply no route to a parliamentary majority in British politics without winning significant numbers of working-class voters. It also matters because it shows to center-left parties around the world that it is possible to win over lost working-class voters, a crucial part of the winning electoral coalition.

However a sizable portion of working-class voters in particular opted for new party Reform UK, and underneath Labour’s considerable achievement is a recognition that many voters feel sceptical that any party can really deliver for them. As Labour moves from campaigning to governing, they will need to be just as focussed on winning over working-class voters as they were in opposition.

Using data collected in the run up to the UK General Election, this new PPI report outlines the priorities of Britain’s working-class voters on the area that matters most to them: work and the economy. It builds on the foundational report on the global center-left, PPI’s ‘Roadmap to Hope’ published in October 2023. The reports are the UK companion to PPI’s Campaign for Working Americans, which aims to refocus the Democrats on regaining the allegiance of working Americans by championing their economic aspirations and moral outlook.

Our aim is to help catalyse a dynamic, modern center-left that can win the support of workingclass voters by providing better answers than the political right to the challenges they face. We are willing UK Labour to succeed in government, and the Democrats to succeed in their campaign to retain the Presidency. The opportunity facing the centre-left is to be the dynamic force that brings back hope to working class voters, so that they face the future with optimism about the prospects for themselves and the next generation.

In ‘Roadmap to Hope’, PPI research found that working-class voters felt the deal whereby if you worked hard you can get on in life had broken down. We argue that the centre-left cannot win and sustain power purely by being the beneficiaries of disenchantment with the political right, but by building a programme that addresses people’s security and prospects for the future.

PPI outlined a set of practical ideas to re-make the deal for working people with the following goals:

1. Relentless focus on raising wages for those on low to middle incomes
2. Stabilise supply and costs of essential goods and services
3. Open up housing investment to the next generation
4. Reform school education to become the driver of progress
5. Replace ‘one rule for them’ with ‘same rules apply’, including on immigration.

This report focusses on the experience and wants of working-class voters on work, costs and the economy, and the political and policy solutions to form the winning centre-left agenda.

Read the full report.

Marshall for The Hill: What Keir Starmer’s victory means for Kamala Harris

Posted on by Alyssa Brown

By Will Marshall

Vice President Kamala Harris has righted her party’s capsized ship and opened a small but consistent lead over Donald Trump in national polls. Now comes the decisive test: Charting a winning course in the Electoral College.

To attain a majority of 270 votes or more, Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), must carry at least three, and in some scenarios four of the seven battleground states. All look like dead heats today.

They can count on a strong turnout by a reenergized Democratic base, but that won’t be enough. You can’t win swing states without winning swing voters. The campaigns are spending prodigiously in these states to sway roughly 3 million voters who tell pollsters they’ve yet to make up their minds.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Winning the Real Youth Voters

Posted on by Max Sherrill

With six weeks until election day, the Harris-Walz campaign is in a final sprint to the polls attempting to win over every voter possible. Nowhere is this more clear than in the campaign’s efforts to win young voters. The Harris campaign announced that they would focus on reaching out to students across 150 campuses in the most important swing states. Other youth groups who have officially partnered with the Harris-Walz campaign have dedicated themselves to calling students across the country. All of these tremendous efforts to mobilize young students only begs one question: What about young voters who don’t go to college?

Many of today’s young leaders cut their teeth working within the party can be traced back to the March For Our Lives organization, a group that was founded to advance gun safety reforms in response to the Parkland shooting of 2018. Some March For Our Lives alumni demonstrate the newest generation of youth activist leaders such as: Representative Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.); David Hogg, president of Leaders We Deserve PAC; and Eve Levenson, the Harris Campaign youth director, all of whom learned their organizing strategy from March For Our Lives.

The reason this distinction matters is that activists who learned from March For Our Lives have shown a clear preference for organizing at either high schools or university campuses. This makes sense since their first action was the Walkout For Our Lives, inspiring students to walk out of class in response to the lack of any action taken to prevent school shootings. When it comes to Get Out The Vote, efforts during an election are the rational path to take. College voters are much more likely to vote Democratic than any other group within the 18-29 demographic. According to a recent poll conducted by Blueprint in May, 50% of college students consider themselves to be liberal as opposed to 36% who consider themselves to be conservative and only 14% who consider themselves to be moderate. Groups like Voters of Tomorrow and NextGen America are taking the lead on mobilizing these voters with days dedicated to calling students or tabling on campuses.

Yet, this strategy leaves wide gaps in the 18-29 demographic. With only 25.8% of the 18-29 demographic actually enrolled in higher education in 2022, there is a massive amount of young Americans who are simply being ignored by these groups. Approximately 39 million, in fact.  If we take the focus off of what most people assume young voters are, far-left and attending a 4-year university, the young voter begins to look like most other voter demographics. For all voters aged 18-29, 36% describe themselves as liberal, a drastic 14-point decrease from college voters, and 31% describe themselves as moderates, another drastic 16% change. A recent poll from NBC highlights that their priorities are much the same as any other voter. By far the largest issue among Gen Z and Millennial voters is inflation and the cost of living, with 31% saying that this is their top issue. No other issue comes close to this level of importance with protecting democracy coming in second with 11% and abortion following close behind with 9%.

There are groups that have broken through the youth vote without focusing primarily on voters on college campuses. Groups like the Center for New Liberalism (CNL) and activists like Olivia Juliana have taken the lead on advocating for policies that appeal to the much broader youth vote. These activists understand that pragmatic policies that address the cost of living for young voters will be key to securing their support for the 2024 Presidential election. The Harris-Walz campaign also realizes this and has been promoting policies that will actually help all young Americans. Chief among them is Harris’ new policy proposal to build 3 million new houses, which will help drive down prices and allow more young Americans to enter the housing market. The rising cost of rent and homeownership is one of the most burdensome costs for young people, and Harris’ new efforts to address it are providing much-needed homes to the 64% of young voters who currently believe that owning their own home will be much more difficult than it was for their parents.

Simple math also explains why the Harris-Walz campaign needs to broaden its outreach to different kinds of young voters. John Della Volpe, the Harvard Institute of Politics Polling Director, has argued that the winning number for a Democratic Presidential candidate is 60% of the youth vote. Yet, the most recent poll of the 18-29 demographic conducted by NBC News has only 50% of young voters choosing Vice President Harris, and only 34% support Donald Trump.

The Harris-Walz campaign and associated youth advocacy groups have done an incredible job tapping into young, progressive, college voters. But if the campaign wants to reach the critical 60% of the youth vote, they will need to step outside their comfort zone and talk to the tens of millions of Gen Z and Millennial voters who are primarily focused on their economic well-being and their future.

Ainsley in The Times: Kamala Harris told to woo ‘hero voters’ by Starmer’s strategist

Posted on by Max Sherrill

There is a very strong sense among these voters that the American middle class is in decline, she added. “They feel that the deal of middle-class aspiration is over, and almost a sense of betrayal by the political classes.”

Mattinson carried out her research alongside Starmer’s former director of policy, Claire Ainsley, who now works for the US-based Progressive Policy Institute.

Ainsley, who went with Mattinson to Wilmington, added: “Hero voters told us they want stability. They don’t want the chaos of Trump particularly, but they do want to know what is the change that [Harris] is going to bring about for them.

“The research also confirmed the centre-left can’t duck immigration,” she added. “This is also a really big priority for people. So a signature policy on immigration that she could speak to, perhaps around border control, would be important.”

Mattinson and Ainsley’s work is the latest example of ever closer co-operation between the Labour Party and the Democrats. Other key party figures have also flown over recently to share knowledge with Harris aides, such as Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s head of political strategy in No 10, and the former shadow cabinet minister Jonathan Ashworth.

Read more in The Times.

Marshall in The Associated Press: Dick Cheney was once vilified by Democrats. Now he’s backing Harris. Will it matter?

Posted on by Max Sherrill

In the process, they are giving Harris a critical opening to broaden her base of support.

“It’s easier for prominent Republicans like Cheney and Gonzales to say, ‘I support Kamala Harris’ because, in effect, their old home has been ransacked and destroyed,” said Will Marshall, the founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, a center-left think tank. “The ties of partisanship, which are always strong in both parties, are attenuated by the fact that Trump has made today’s Republican Party absolutely unwelcome for prominent Republicans who served in previous administrations.”

Bush himself will not follow suit. A spokesperson says the former president has no plans to make endorsements or say publicly how he will vote.

Harris has embraced the backing of Republicans with whom she shares little common ground and whose endorsement likely has more to do with opposition to Trump than support of her policy positions. She frequently mentions that more than 200 Republicans have endorsed her, and her campaign said in an email playing up Gonzales’ backing that it welcomed into the fold “every American – regardless of party – who values democracy and the rule of law.”

Read more in The Associated Press.

Ainsley in The Washington Post: U.K. Labour strategists advise Harris on winning from the center left

Posted on by Max Sherrill

“British pollster Deborah Mattinson, a former top adviser to Starmer, and Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former director of policy, jointly briefed Harris campaign staffers this past week on a target demographic they call “hero voters.

In Britain, Ainsley told The Washington Post, these tended to be voters who had traditionally backed Labour but who had supported the 2016 Brexit referendum and the “Get Brexit Done” election campaign of Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party in 2019.

They were struggling with daily living costs and wanted change. “They felt like hope for a better life was getting out of reach,” said Ainsley, who now works with the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) think tank in Washington.”

Keep reading in The Washington Post.

Marshall for The Hill: Protesters, media must stop normalizing terrorism

Posted on by Max Sherrill

By Will Marshall

The U.S. Justice Department disclosed last week that it had charged six Hamas leaders with terrorism in February for organizing the Oct. 7 massacre of approximately 1,200 people in Israel — including more than 40 U.S. citizens.

Although none of those charged are likely to ever appear in a U.S. courtroom — three have since been killed and Israeli forces are hunting down the rest — the unsealed indictments are a crucial expression of American solidarity with terrorism victims everywhere.

Attorney General Merrick Garland drove home the horror of the Oct. 7 bloodbath in a statement justifying the charges: “During the attack, Hamas terrorists murdered civilians who tried to flee, and those who sought refuge in bomb shelters,” he said. “They murdered entire families. They murdered the elderly, and they murdered young children. They weaponized sexual violence against women.”

Hamas also seized about 240 hostages and recently killed six more of them to pressure Israel to stop the fighting and leave Gaza.

Keep reading in The Hill.

Ainsley in Politico Magazine: What Keir Starmer’s Advisers Told Democrats in Washington

Posted on by Max Sherrill

When the British political strategist Deborah Mattinson heard Vice President Kamala Harris boast in the presidential debate about prosecuting transnational gangs, she thought the message was spot on — and that Harris needed to deliver it many, many, many more times.

The former head of strategy for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who won a landslide election in July, Mattinson was in Washington the week of the debate to meet with Democrats, including advisers to the Harris campaign, and share lessons from the Labor Party’s smashing summer victory. She and Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former head of policy, urged Democrats to focus intently on winning back working-class voters who had drifted to the right in recent years — toward right-wing populists who seemed more in touch with their economic frustrations and cultural grievances.

“For voters, cost of living and immigration are the two biggest issues,” Ainsley said. “And that’s where they need to focus their attention.”

POLITICO spoke with Mattinson and Ainsley as they were wrapping up their visit to Washington. Harris, they said, was on the right track. But with only weeks left until the election, there was still plenty of work for her to do to defeat former President Donald Trump.

Their advice was not just based on intuition or interpretation of the recent U.K. election. Ainsley is a leader of the Progressive Policy Institute, where she directs a transnational effort to revitalize center-left parties. As part of that effort, the think tank shuttled Labour politicians to Washington earlier this year and the Democratic convention in August, and conducted polling and focus groups in American swing states over the summer.

Read more of their interview in Politico Magazine.