Claire Ainsley joined Sky News’ Ali Fortescue to provide the Labour perspective on the first U.S. presidential debate and discuss how the U.S.-U.K. relations might be affected by the result of November’s election.
Watch below:
issue: Politics
Marshall for The Hill: The GOP’s pessimistic platform for the future is the worst of our past
Gathering in Charlotte four years ago to renominate President Donald Trump, Republicans didn’t bother to draft a party platform. Evidently, they figured, “more Trump” was all the public needed to know about their second-term plans.
It probably was, although not in the way Republicans had hoped, as the voters dumped Trump and hired Joe Biden.
Americans vote for people, not platforms. But these manifestoes, however platitudinous and boring, are like a quadrennial Rorschach test of a party’s state of mind. The GOP’s decision to recycle its 2016 platform seemed calculated to paper over internal ideological rifts as well as their nominee’s frequent lapses into incoherence.
This time, party leaders plan to write a new platform for next month’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. This time, having thoroughly routed traditional conservatives and the GOP’s dwindling band of dissenters from his “stolen election” fantasy, Trump can expect blind obedience from his party.
Keep reading in The Hill.
UK General Election Bulletin – 1 Week Remaining
This is the fourth and final of PPI’s weekly bulletin charting the course of the UK General Election, from PPI’s Claire Ainsley.
Claire is based in the UK, directing PPI’s project on center-left renewal, and is former director of policy to Labour leader Keir Starmer. She is supporting the Labour campaign, as a media commentator, as well as on the ground ahead of polling day next week on Thursday 4th July.
The U.K. is entering the final days of its general election campaign, and whilst the overall polls aren’t budging much with a sustained lead for Labour, there are some undercurrents that means the result is not a foregone conclusion.
A large minority of voters are undecided, even at this late stage. In the main, these are people who voted Conservative in 2019, don’t really want to vote for them again, but are holding back from changing their vote to Labour.
A good proportion of them are switching to new entrants Reform U.K., partly driven by their dissatisfaction with the Conservatives’ failure to manage immigration, and who want change not the status quo. Reform U.K. are set to do much better than the national political conversation is accounting for, taking votes mainly at the Conservatives’ expense but also from Labour. It may not translate into many MPs, but it doesn’t need to play havoc with British politics. Just look at Brexit.
Then there are the undecided voters who would normally vote Conservative, might have voted Labour under Tony Blair, but are yet to come over to Labour. Their concerns are primarily on tax and spend, which Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves have been reassuring voters they will not put personal taxes up nor unleash public spending without the proceeds of improved growth to pay for it. The Tory campaign is now focussed on these two groups, and makes the overall result open to a broader range of election possibilities than the media coverage would suggest. Sunak threw punch after punch Starmer’s way in our final leaders’ television debate, which are not as widely watched as in the US, but signalled that’s where the Conservative strategy is at.
All this underscores the need to center-left parties to meet the voters where they are, and win the argument against the political right about destination. British voters want a better economy and better public services. They are sceptical any political party can really deliver that. Despite that, Labour’s lead is holding ahead of election day. If they do succeed, they will need to waste no time in delivering the change the country has voted for.
Ainsley in Bloomberg: Keir Starmer Builds a Big UK Election Victory on a Volatile Base
Starmer has also boxed himself in by saying he doesn’t plan to increase any taxes beyond those already announced. That risks angering voters if Labour reneges on its tax-and-spend pledges to balance the books.
“There’s a real challenge to be the party of stronger growth again, when the policies they might want to effect — state and private — feel outwith the capacity they have when they get there,” said Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former director of policy and now a director at the Progressive Policy Institute.
Read more in Bloomberg.
UK General Election Bulletin – 2 Weeks Away
This is the third of PPI’s weekly bulletin charting the course of the UK General Election, from PPI’s Claire Ainsley.
Claire is based in the UK, directing PPI’s project on center-left renewal, and is former director of policy to Labour leader Keir Starmer. She is supporting the Labour campaign, as a media commentator, as well as on the ground ahead of polling day on Thursday 4th July.
With less than two weeks to go before voters go to the polls in the UK, a change of governing party for the first time in 14 years is looking more and more likely.
It is important to note that any kind of parliamentary majority for the Labour Party would be a huge achievement. When Keir Starmer was elected leader of the Labour Party in April 2020, Labour were 26 points behind the Conservatives who had just won their fourth successive election and an 80-seat majority in parliament. Labour was a long way behind, and Starmer’s turnaround to the point where Labour looks electable again is nothing short of remarkable.
With a change of government looking closer in the UK, international attention on the election has increased. I’m writing this bulletin from Berlin with PPI, where European centre-left parties, and Democrats, are hopeful that a change of government in the UK will bring fresh energy to the global center-left and vital cooperation on international possibilities and challenges.
If UK voters do put their faith in Labour at the coming election, the party would do well to seek counsel from the center-left parties who have found that winning the war of an election campaign does not mean winning the peace in government. The SPD in Germany became the leading party in the governing coalition at the last federal election in 2021, but have seen popular support ebb away as their programme hit fiscal constraint and cost of living reality in post-Covid crisis times. And of course in the US, the strong performance of the US economy is eyed with envy this side of the Atlantic, but as Democrats well know, it is not as yet translating into support for Biden ahead of his re-election campaign.
PPI will be hosting a webinar this coming Tuesday on the electoral politics behind the UK vote, and what a change of government in the UK could mean for the US. We will be joined by leading commentators Professor Rob Ford of the University of Manchester, one of the UK’s foremost political scientists, and Kiran Stacey, Political Correspondent at the Guardian and former Washington correspondent for the Financial Times. This is a unique opportunity to hear the insiders’ view on this potentially game-changing election, and you can sign up here.
Ainsley for LabourList: Labour manifesto shows a new centrism – with the state key to driving growth
If Labour’s manifesto for the 2024 General Election reads more like a strategic plan for Britain than a political sales brochure, that’s because it is. Labour has used its poll lead well to resist the temptation to pack its manifesto with gimmicks and giveaways, instead setting out a serious programme for the country.
The goal of the programme is achieving Labour’s five national missions; the means to get there is stronger economic growth. The first chapter is devoted to wealth creation, and sets out a distinct departure from the economic philosophy we have been used to under the Conservatives.
Gone is the failed old orthodoxy of leaving the vital task of generating widespread prosperity to the market. In comes the new centrism of a dynamic and strategic state that partners with the private sector to drive stronger, more sustainable economic growth across the country.
Just because there were no big policy surprises on the day the manifesto was launched, does not mean there are no big policies. In fact the manifesto is packed full of major structural reforms to the UK economy.
Keep reading in LabourList.
UK General Election Bulletin – 3 Weeks Away
This is the second of PPI’s weekly bulletin charting the course of the UK General Election, from PPI’s Claire Ainsley.
Claire is based in the UK, directing PPI’s project on center-left renewal, and is former director of policy to Labour leader Keir Starmer. She is supporting the Labour campaign, as a media commentator, as well as on the ground ahead of polling day on Thursday 4th July.
The UK is now in the astonishing position that the governing political party is now polling third – or close to it – in a two-party system. Such is the Conservatives’ unpopularity amongst the electorate at large, and the threat from new party Reform UK so great, that the dominant political party in British politics is facing a real crisis.
However there are still three weeks to go until polling day, and not a vote has been cast, as Labour leader Keir Starmer and his Shadow Cabinet have been at pains to point out. We know from recent elections how much more volatile the electorate is, with tribal loyalties weakened, so we just cannot be certain of the outcome. There is no complacency in the ground operation of the Labour party, which is fighting for a large number of battleground seats across England, Wales and Scotland before voters go to the polls on 4th July.
This week saw the publication of the party manifestos, with more pressure on the Conservatives to produce a game-changing offer given the state of the race. Despite eye-catching promises of tax cuts, the manifesto doesn’t appear to be shifting the dial in their direction. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has had days of negative coverage after he left the D-Day commemorations early to return to the UK for an election interview, a decision widely condemned and one he later apologised for. Labour played it safe with their “no surprises” manifesto, essentially re-announcing much of the programme for government they have already set out, which I have written about more extensively for Labour List here [add link when live]. The manifesto is light years away from the high spending promises of the Corbyn years, but is clearly inspired by the ambition of the Biden administration to harness the dynamic power of the state to fuel private enterprise.
Gratifyingly for PPI, Labour leader Keir Starmer placed remaking the deal whereby if you work hard you can get on, at the centre of the manifesto, which we argued for in our publication ‘Roadmap to Hope’ last year.
In the end much of the political debate is coming down to the parlous state of the UK’s public finances. Independent experts the Institute for Fiscal Studies have taken a sceptical view of all the parties’ plans, saying they do not adequately cover public funding commitments without tax hikes or further cuts to services. With another three weeks to go, we should expect the parties to come under intense pressure to demonstrate how they can deliver on their promises without leaning into one or the other.
Marshall for The Hill: Could US and UK voters spark a global center-left revival?
In this year of high-stakes elections, none are likely to tell us more about the health of liberal democracy than the marquee contests in the United Kingdom and the United States.
All signs point to a crushing defeat for British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party after 14 tumultuous years in power. Poised for victory is a renovated Labour Party, ably led by Keir Starmer and leading the Tories in polls by more than 20 points.
On Wednesday, Sunak surprised the country by announcing a snap election on July 4 rather than wait until the end of the year.
A Labour victory would cap a remarkable turnaround for a party that suffered a devastating rout in 2019. That year, Boris Johnson and the Tories breached Labour’s “Red Wall” across England’s industrial heartland, winning over working class voters with promises to “get Brexit done” and “level up” economic conditions in the less prosperous north.
Labour’s return to power also would be a major morale boost for Europe’s center-left, which hasn’t had much to celebrate lately.
Keep reading in The Hill.
Lewis for Chicago Tribune: Saving President Joe Biden’s infrastructure agenda from itself
When an Interstate 95 overpass collapsed in Philadelphia in June, Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Josh Shapiro, responded with a master class in executive leadership.
Slashing through thousands of pages of red tape with a stroke of his pen, Shapiro focused solely on rebuilding as fast as possible and refused to let interest group politics or bureaucratic inertia slow things down. Shapiro stunned the world by cutting the ribbon on a fully rebuilt span just 12 days later.
This “Philadelphia Miracle” should have been top of mind when President Joe Biden travelled to Baltimore recently with a promise to “move heaven and earth” to rebuild the destroyed Francis Scott Key Bridge. but then the coda: “And we’re going to do so with union labor and American steel.”
One might dismiss this sop to organized labor as a typical election-year throwaway line. But it actually holds a clue to the riddle of why Biden’s infrastructure agenda is drifting and why skeptical voters aren’t yet giving the president full credit for his legislative wins.
Keep reading in the Chicago Tribune.
Kahlenberg for The Liberal Patriot: What Two Civil Rights Heroes Can Teach Today’s Left
If you’re worried about threats to liberal democracy in America, emanating primarily from Donald Trump but also from parts of the progressive left, a new memoir published by two veteran civil rights activists provides a refreshing reminder that a better path remains open.
Climbing the Rough Side of the Mountain: The Extraordinary Story of Love, Civil Rights, and Labor Activism, by Norman and Velma Hill, two black civil rights leaders, provides a fascinating account of their years working closely with Martin Luther King Jr., A. Philip Randolph, and Bayard Rustin to make their country live up to its ideals. Norman and Velma (whom I came to know while writing a biography of labor leader Albert Shanker), were in the thick of many of the central battles for racial and economic justice in the mid-twentieth century.
They first met in 1960, fighting racial segregation in Chicago. In 1963, they helped Randolph and Rustin organize the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom. As the Black Power movement began to gain salience in the mid-1960s, they shifted to work with organized labor. Norman took a job with Rustin at the A. Philip Randolph Institute to provide a bridge between trade unions and the black community. Velma worked for the United Federation of Teachers to organize mostly black and Hispanic teacher aides in New York City at a time when many black city residents were distrustful of the union.
Throughout, the Hills battled segregationists and union-busters on the right as well as forces of illiberalism and black separatism on the left. In a sense, then, they’ve written two books in one. The first is a familiar—though still deeply affecting—morality tale in which they combat the pure evil of white supremacy and largely prevail. The second story involves the internecine battles on the left with other advocates of black advancement. Like their mentors Randolph and Rustin, the Hills believed in several key principles that received pushback at the time: interracial coalition politics; a common economic agenda across racial lines; nonviolence in achieving social change; democratic norms at home and abroad; and an optimism about the possibilities of America.
Keep reading in The Liberal Patriot.
Johnson for American Purpose: Caring Isn’t Enough
Over the past few weeks, campus protests focusing on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have received an inordinate amount of media attention. Images of the protests, news of university actions (or lack of action) against the protests, and debates about their legitimacy have been front-page news. And yet for all the breathless coverage, one thing seems to be missing: an explanation why any of this matters at all.
You may say that these events matter to the colleges impacted or to America’s domestic politics. But the protests are nominally about what’s happening in Gaza. And there’s very little reporting on how any of the protestors plan to make a difference there.
The truth is that they’re not going to make any difference to those enduring the conflict whatsoever. Furthermore, it’s not even clear whether the protestors realize that is supposed to be the goal. Helping Palestinians in Gaza no longer seems to be the point. It’s certainly worthwhile for college students to care about injustice in the world. But caring isn’t enough.
Read more in American Purpose.
Marshall for The Hill: Why Putin needs Trump to win
In Ukraine, the fickle fortunes of war have turned in Russia’s favor. The invaders have seized the military initiative, while a Trumpified Republican Party has thrown in doubt both America’s commitment to a free Ukraine and our will to confront a new Russian imperialism.
For the moment, however, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has managed to unsnag more than $60 billion in long-stalled U.S. military aid that Ukraine desperately needs to defend itself against a Russian summer offensive.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently confirmed Moscow’s plan to seize Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Exploiting their advantages in manpower and missiles, willingness to take casualties and Ukraine’s dire shortage of artillery shells, Russian forces lately have made significant if costly advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
Although I’m loathe to praise any 2020 election denier, Speaker Johnson acted patriotically, if belatedly, in bringing the aid package to the House floor and passing it with Democratic help.
Ryan for Newsweek: An Open Letter to Speaker Johnson: Embrace the Bipartisan Way Forward
By Tim Ryan
Speaker Johnson,
As you are well aware, your immediate predecessors—Republicans serving as speakers of the House—had rough goes in the job. Held over a barrel by the extremists in your party, they were loath to work across the aisle for fear of letting the extremists in my party get the better of any legislative deal.
Without a doubt, the Democratic and Republican parties have different and disparate interests, and rarely see eye-to-eye. But in regards to the current impasse on Capitol Hill, you and reasonable members of the Republican conference have more in common with pragmatic members of the Democratic caucus than you do the extremists who are mobilizing to get you fired.
As you plot the way forward, I want to point out a truth few have acknowledged: You’d not only position the U.S. to lead the world in energy, manufacturing, and climate change if you were to champion a grand legislative bargain. By damning the consequences, you’d paint yourself a hero, a patriot, as well and a unique political leader in this country at this very difficult time.
Ryan for Newsweek: Young Voters Are Consumed by Desperation—and Nihilism. Here’s How Biden Can Reach Them
By Tim Ryan
President Biden is touting the strength of America’s post-pandemic economic recovery, and he’s right: Wages are up, unemployment is down, and inflation is finally coming under control. But as pollsters perpetually point out, the president is not getting credit in the polls. Working-class voters—particularly young people in middle American communities like those I represented in northeast Ohio—are particularly despondent. The anger isn’t new—its roots run to before even the Great Recession. But the $10,000 question is why President’s Biden’s success hasn’t yet won over middle America’s minds and hearts?
The problem stems primarily from the way we understand voter attitudes. The old question—”Are you better off than you were four years ago?”—simply doesn’t apply anymore. That’s because working class voters are more focused on the reality that they’re so much worse off than their parents and grandparents were at the same age. Many young people have come to embrace “financial nihilism“: The prospect of upward mobility is so remote and the chance of achieving the American Dream so far-fetched that the tools previous generations used to lever up their prospects appear nothing less than preposterous. To young people, it feels like it’s better to invest in crypto or make parlay bets on FanDuel than try to take advantage of Pell Grants and 401ks that aren’t sufficient to their financial challenges.
These aren’t problems any president would be able to solve in a single term—because the underlying challenges have developed over decades. Through the last quarter century, housing supply has been so severely constricted that starter homes are now out of reach for young people wanting to put down roots. When the Boomers turned 25, their generation had garnered 20 percent of the nation’s household wealth—the Millennials, by contrast, boast only 5 percent. For that reason, the nation’s young working class simply can’t maintain their place on the socio-economic ladder, let alone climb it. And they’re reacting, understandably, with a combination of rage and disaffection.
Marshall for The Hill: Increasing defections are puncturing the voters of color myth
The Democrats’ eroding support among Hispanic, Black, and Asian American voters is making progressive heads explode. Aren’t voters of color supposed to be a solid pillar of the party’s base?
Evidently not. Democrats, says 538 statistician Nate Silver, are “hemorrhaging” support among nonwhite voters. That’s the main reason President Biden is trailing Donald Trump in many presidential polls.
This development has triggered much speculation among political scientists and journalists about whether the United States is undergoing a “racial realignment.” There’s no denying Biden’s sagging support among nonwhite voters, but it seems to have more to do with class than race.
According to aggregate polling results, the president’s advantage among Hispanic voters has fallen from 24 points in the 2020 election to just seven points. Among Black voters, it’s slipped from 83 points to 55.
Of course, polls aren’t election results. With favorable tailwinds from a vibrant economy, and Trump facing all kinds of legal jeopardy in civil and criminal trials, Biden could yet get his numbers among these voters, especially Black voters, back up closer to his 2020 level.
Ainsley for The New Statesman: The Tories don’t understand the new working class
Lee Anderson’s recent defection to Reform UK was perceived by many Conservatives as symbolic of the fracture between their party and the voters it won for the first time in 2019. For some, the views represented by Anderson have become synonymous with working-class voters. But this mistaken characterisation of today’s working class is one of the many reasons that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives look like they will lose the next general election.
Writing in the Telegraph, Tory MPs Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger argued that Anderson’s defection is “a sad indictment of the failure of our party to listen to the voters who propelled us to victory four years ago”. This analysis promises to lock in the Tories’ strategy of pushing further and further to the right on social and cultural issues, particularly on immigration, in the mistaken belief that this will mobilise Red Wall voters who they suppose are animated by cultural conservatism.
But the Tories have misunderstood and mischaracterised today’s working class and their 2019 vote. The vast majority of those who supported the Conservatives in more working-class areas were primarily motivated by economic concerns, and they have been failed by the Tories’ economic record and serial incompetence. Today’s working-class voters are much more diverse than outdated stereotypes suggest: people living on low to middle incomes, multi-ethnic, in towns and suburbs across the UK. Those who have borne the brunt of stagnant wages and rising prices.