The Daily Beast: Hillary’s Trade Flip-Flop

Hillary Clinton’s decision to oppose President Obama’s top trade priority is beyond disappointing. It devalues two of her real assets – foreign policy expertise and political loyalty – while aligning her with the most economically retrograde voices on the “populist” left.

Political reporters naturally played up Clinton’s “break” with Obama, who has just wrapped up the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after five years of arduous negotiations with 11 other Pacific Rim countries. Her untimely defection to the anti-trade camp will compound the president’s already difficult task of rallying Democratic support in Congress for TPP.

More troubling, though, is Clinton’s break with herself.  As Obama’s first Secretary of State, she was a key architect of the administration’s strategy of “rebalancing” America toward the Asia Pacific.  Integral to that strategy is TPP, which would create an economic counterweight to China – a vast free trade zone encompassing 40 percent of global GDP that includes advanced economies like Japan and Australia, and emerging markets like Malaysia and Vietnam.

At issue is whether the burgeoning Pacific economy will play by China’s mercantilist rules, or merge into the liberal, rules-based trading system championed by the United States and Europe. The stakes for U.S. workers and companies are enormous. In 2011, Clinton called TPP a model for future trade agreements, and indeed other Asian economies, such as South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Thailand, have expressed interest in joining.

So TPP isn’t just another trade deal; it’s an impressive feat of U.S. economic diplomacy and leadership. Its rejection by Congress would deal a heavy blow to America’s influence in the region.

It would also damage America’s growth prospects. The U.S. economy is stuck in low gear, averaging a paltry two percent growth per year since 2000. Over the last decade, productivity growth also has slowed, which economists say goes a long way toward explaining why wage gains for most U.S. workers have been so meager. Our economy needs a lift – and TPP’s market-opening provisions will stimulate foreign demand for U.S. products.

Continue reading at The Daily Beast.

PRESS RELEASE: PPI Statement On Secretary Clinton’s Opposition to TPP

WASHINGTON— The Progressive Policy Institute issued the following statement in response to Secretary Clinton’s announced opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement:

“Progressives—and all Americans—seek an economic future with good jobs and more inclusive economic growth. The Trans-Pacific Partnership can help achieve both of these important goals. The TPP would expand U.S. trade to growing Asia-Pacific markets in innovative and important sectors where America is strong, supporting higher-paying jobs. At the same time, the TPP’s groundbreaking provisions on the digital economy and small business trade could boost export opportunities for American entrepreneurs and smaller exporters which, in turn, can help spread gains from trade more broadly throughout the American economy.

“The TPP would also help assure that this growing trade would happen under enforceable, high-standard commitments to protect labor rights, preserve the environment, ensure an open Internet, reduce corruption, and increase transparency. These and other TPP commitments would help level the international playing field for American exporters and their workers, while providing tangible help to workers and people in all TPP countries.

“In light of these and other anticipated benefits from TPP, PPI is disappointed that Secretary Clinton has expressed her opposition to the agreement—and we hope that she’ll reconsider this initial view once the TPP’s full text is released. Like any negotiated agreement, the TPP is certainly far from perfect. But it has significant potential to support smarter and more inclusive growth and to orient U.S. trade towards new markets, new opportunities and a rapidly changing global economy—and to do so in a way that advances key American values. And, as Secretary Clinton well knows, the TPP could also deliver critical geopolitical benefits for the United States and our key allies in the Pacific region.

“Many who routinely oppose new trade agreements—like those who repeatedly vow to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act—are often long on rhetoric and short on practical and achievable solutions. It would be unfortunate for a thoughtful leader like Secretary Clinton to make common cause with reflexive anti-traders—in both parties—whose zero-sum views on the global economy are rooted in the failed policies of the past. We hope, instead, that Secretary Clinton will work to support agreements to expand trade and other policies—including investments in education, training and infrastructure—that will help orient the American economy towards the future and bring trade’s undeniable benefits to more Americans.”

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The End of Safe Harbor and the Rise of Digital Protectionism

Today the European Court of Justice invalidated the “Safe Harbor” agreement that allowed thousands of  US companies to transfer personal data from Europe to the US, including personal data of employees at their European subsidiaries. As the WSJ wrote:

In a victory for privacy advocates, the European Court of Justice ruled that national regulators in the EU can override the 15-year-old “Safe Harbor” pact used by about 4,500 companies, including Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, because it violates the privacy rights of Europeans by exposing them to allegedly indiscriminate surveillance by the U.S. government.

Leaving aside the legalities, this ruling indicates a rising mood of digital protectionism which is likely to hurt Europe far more than the US. Data traffic flows both ways, after all, and efforts to keep personal data inside the EU is likely to end up keeping useful data  out as well. The future belongs to those countries who participate fully in the global digital economy.

PRESS RELEASE: PPI Statement on Announcement of TPP Deal

WASHINGTON— Ed Gerwin, Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), today released the following statement in response to Monday’s announcement that top trade officials from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership countries have successfully completed their negotiations:

“PPI welcomes Monday’s announcement that the United States and its 11 negotiating partners have successfully concluded negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.

“If done right, modern trade agreements like TPP have significant potential to increase American exports to key foreign markets; to forge international consensus on high standards for open rulemaking, environmental protection, and labor rights; and to support digital commerce and other tools for broader and more inclusive trade.

“We appreciate the tireless efforts of Ambassador Froman, the Obama Administration’s trade team, and trade supporters in Congress in seeking a TPP agreement that will achieve these and other key priorities for the United States.

“We look forward to reviewing the text of the completed agreement. And we are particularly grateful to Congressional trade leaders—particularly Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Congressman Ron Kind (D-Wisc.), and other pro-trade Democrats—for writing strong, new rules that will assure an extensive, informed and transparent debate on the detailed provisions of the TPP.”

PRESS RELEASE: New PPI Report Highlights Benefits of TPP, Freer Trade for Vietnam

HANOIThe Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) today released a new policy report highlighting how key reforms Vietnam would need to implement under the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) could ultimately provide important benefits for Vietnam itself. The report was made public at an American Chamber of Commerce event in Hanoi attended by influential U.S. and Vietnamese business leaders, as well as leading Vietnamese economic experts and proponents of economic reform.

“Vietnam is poised to benefit significantly from the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement,” said Ed Gerwin, PPI Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity and author of the report. “But TPP will also require Vietnam to undertake significant legal and regulatory changes in areas including transparency, the rule of law, labor and environmental rules, the digital economy, and rules for state-owned enterprises. These reforms in Vietnam will play a critical role in driving increased U.S. trade and commerce with a growing and vibrant Vietnamese economy.

“Those of us who believe strong trade agreements can promote inclusive growth and positive change need to continue to remind Vietnam that adopting these necessary reforms—and sticking to them—will also deliver tangible benefits for Vietnam and its people. PPI looks forward to continuing to be a constructive voice in this effort.”

In “TPP and the Benefits of Freer Trade for Vietnam: Some Lessons from U.S. Free Trade Agreements,” Gerwin uses the experience of past high-standard U.S. trade agreements to illustrate why undertaking these often-difficult reforms would also be in Vietnam’s self interest. Gerwin notes, “the adjustments required by high-standard [trade deals] can also promote foreign investment, technological advancement, innovation, broader participation in trade, and other key developments that—together with additional reforms—can drive stronger and more broadly shared economic development.”

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TPP and the Benefits of Freer Trade for Vietnam: Some Lessons from U.S. Free Trade Agreements

Countries trade because trade delivers mutual benefits. New market-opening trade agreements like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) can enhance the shared benefits of trade by eliminating barriers to expanded international commerce and deepening economic cooperation between partners. It’s not surprising, therefore, that a detailed economic simulation of freer commerce under the TPP finds that each of the 12 TPP countries would see aggregate income gains and increased ex- ports under a comprehensive TPP. A strong TPP agreement, in short, could be a win—times 12.

But governments and their leaders don’t simply operate in the aggregate. Despite trade’s undeniable overall benefits, not everyone benefits from trade—and beneficial agreements that increase trade and open markets can require sometimes- difficult economic adjustments.

For the United States, for example, the TPP could support more good-paying jobs for U.S. workers who produce and sell American goods and services to growing Pacific Rim economies that should see even stronger growth under TPP. At the same time, however, growing trade can lead to lost jobs and lower wages for some American workers, and will require a renewed U.S. focus on comprehensive solutions, including assistance and better training for lower-skilled workers.

Other countries will need to adjust as well. Japan, for instance, will require reforms to its farm sector, while Canada will need to upgrade its intellectual property rules to comply with global standards.

Download “TPP and the Benefits of Freer Trade for Vietnam: Some Lessons from U.S. Free Trade Agreements”

PRESS RELEASE: PPI Statement On Significant Progress of TPP Negotiations

WASHINGTON— Ed Gerwin, Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity at the Progressive Policy Institute, today released the following statement after top trade officials from the 12 Trans-Pacific Partnership countries on Friday announced significant progress on the historic trade agreement:

“PPI welcomes Friday’s announcement that the United States and its 11 negotiating partners have made significant progress on the substance of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.

Modern trade agreements like TPP have significant potential to boost inclusive growth here in America, while also setting high standards for a broad swath of the global economy in such key areas as open rulemaking, environmental protection, labor rights and digital commerce. But to achieve these results and other important benefits for the United States, it is critical that these agreements are done right.

“We appreciate the continuing efforts of U.S. negotiators, the Administration, and trade supporters in Congress in working towards the conclusion of an agreement that is the best possible deal for America. We look forward to reviewing a completed agreement. And we are particularly grateful to Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Congressman Ron Kind (D-Wisc.), and other pro-trade Democrats for their leadership in writing unprecedented new rules that will assure an extensive, informed and transparent debate on an eventual TPP deal.”

Financial Times: US income inequality rises up political agenda

PPI President, Will Marshall, was quoted in a piece by Financial Times addressing how 2016 Presidential candidates are approaching strengthening the middle class and reducing income inequality:

Will Marshall, founder of the Progressive Policy Institute, says that Democrats too need to recognise the centrality of growth to any programme aimed at lifting middle class incomes. “Americans are aware that the private economy is ailing. Democrats don’t have a plausible theory for how they will unleash private sector growth,” he said. “Growth is the best antidote to inequality.”

Read the article in its entirety at Financial Times.

PRESS RELEASE: PPI Applauds Congress on Trade Votes

Ed Gerwin, Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity at the Progressive Policy Institute, today released the following statement after passage of Trade Promotion Authority and Trade Adjustment Assistance legislation in Congress:

PPI applauds Congress for voting this week to advance a forward-looking trade agenda that will help grow America’s economy and support good jobs—while also upholding important progressive values.

Passage of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) will enable the Obama Administration to complete negotiations of a vital market-opening trade agreement with countries in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region, and will jumpstart significant trade talks with our allies in Europe, as well.

TPA will do this while requiring that all U.S. trade pacts advance progressive goals in critical areas like labor rights, environmental protection, and open digital trade. And TPA will help ‘democratize’ trade through rules to enable small businesses, entrepreneurs, and consumers to more directly participate in and benefit from global trade.

Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) has been a progressive priority since the Kennedy Administration. In voting to extend and expand TAA, Congress will assure that those American workers whose jobs are impacted by trade can obtain the support and training they need to succeed in an increasingly knowledge-based global economy.

PPI particularly acknowledges those pro-trade House and Senate Democrats—especially Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Representative Ron Kind (D-Wis.), and key members of the House New Democrat Coalition—whose support was decisive in advancing the trade agenda. These pro-growth progressives understand that trading with a growing global middle class can power more inclusive growth for Americans, and they wisely used their influence to assure that the trade process is significantly more open and transparent. As we continue an important debate on trade and its benefits, Americans should listen closely to these thoughtful leaders.

LeBron James and the Do-Something Democrats: Support for Democrats In the Arena on Trade

In this year’s NBA Finals, LeBron James cemented his reputation as one of the greatest basketball players of all time­—becoming the first player in Finals history to lead both teams in points, rebounds, and assists in every game, and averaging an astounding 35.8 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 8.8 assists for the six-game series.

In addition to his basketball prowess, Lebron is also a student of oratory and leadership. When faced with criticism and second-guessing, he’s frequently cited Theodore Roosevelt’s 1910 address on “Citizenship in a Republic,” popularly known as the “Man in the Arena” speech. Like Roosevelt, LeBron believes that:

“The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, and comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds. . . . “

In Washington’s ongoing trade battles, there’s a group of Democratic House Members and Senators who are displaying the type of grit and determination that both TR and LBJ would almost certainly admire. These are the 28 House Democrats and 14 Democratic Senators who’ve voted to advance Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation, often in the face of intense criticism from anti-trade forces.

These Democrats support a forward-looking trade agenda that includes critical priorities for progressives, including strong and enforceable labor and environmental standards, and new rules to protect innovation, to assure open digital commerce, and to “democratize” trade for small business and consumers. As pro-growth Democrats, they understand that increased trade can tap a burgeoning global middle class and help power more inclusive economic growth for middle class Americans.

These Democrats are also realists—and doers. They understand that writing modern rules for liberal trade is a messy and often-thankless task that requires hard work and perseverance. They appreciate that trade is always a negotiation and recognize the need for principled compromise among Congressional colleagues, the Administration, foreign governments, and the many and varied interests that make up America’s economic and social fabric.

While these Democrats know that they won’t achieve everything they seek, they also believe that it is vital to stand with the long line of Democrats—from FDR and Truman to JFK and Bill Clinton—who have progressively built an increasingly effective rules-based trading system that has fostered global peace and prosperity, lifted millions worldwide out of poverty, and continues to deliver substantial benefits to all Americans.

Many Democrats who have opposed TPA say that they support increased trade and stronger trade rules, and that they want to achieve the best deal for America. These TPA critics may be sincere, but they often offer only nebulous ideas on how to achieve these important ends.

Pragmatic, do-something Democrats, on the other hand, recognize the Trade Promotion Authority offers the only realistic, near-term means of achieving the outcomes that so many Democrats claim to want.  They know that our negotiating partners will never table their best and final offers to open markets or raise standards without TPA. And they understand that the United States will never achieve anything meaningful in trade if our trading partners must effectively negotiate with 535 members of Congress. This is especially so after last’s week’s spectacle in which labor and anti-trade groups prevailed on House Democrats to kill worker adjustment assistance—a six-decade Democratic priority—in a cynical bid to scuttle TPA and the overall trade agenda.

Pro-trade Democratic Members understand that key portions of the progressive coalition, including Democrats (58%), millennials (69%), Hispanics (71%), and mayors, believe that trade deals are good for the United States. But they’re not asking Americans to sign a blank check for new agreements. Under the leadership of Senator Ron Wyden, Congressman Ron Kind, and others, they’ve worked hard to assure that TPA includes unprecedented new transparency provisions, including the requirement that the text of any new trade deal be posted on the Internet for months before it is ever brought to a vote.

In a news conference before the NBA Finals, LeBron offered a pithy addendum to his favorite Roosevelt quote. When asked to guarantee a championship, LeBron said that he could only guarantee that “we will play our asses off.”

It’s time for Democrats who say they support expanded trade and progressive rules to get off of the sidelines—and to join the do-something Democrats who are “in the arena” sweating and striving towards those vital goals.

PRESS RELEASE: A Moment of Truth for Pro-Growth Progressives on Trade

WASHINGTON–Ed Gerwin, Senior Fellow for Trade and Opportunity at the Progressive Policy Institute, today released the following statement prior to a vote on Trade Promotion Authority in the House of Representatives:

“Opening overseas markets to U.S. exports is integral to putting America back on a high-growth trajectory. PPI therefore urges pro-growth progressives to support President Obama’s major trade initiatives. To conclude trade agreements that advance U.S. interests, this President, like any president, needs Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). What’s more, TPA enables Congress to identify its key objectives for U.S. trade policy.

“As PPI has detailed in recent reports on the Obama Administration’s trade agenda and open digital trade, new U.S. trade agreements can make vital progress on issues that are important to Democrats and progressives. They can, for example, tap a growing global middle class to fuel more inclusive American economic growth, strengthen and expand the reach of rules on labor rights and environment protection, and ‘democratize’ trade by empowering entrepreneurs, small businesses, and consumers to more directly participate in and benefit from global commerce.

“TPA would provide a fairer and considerably more open process for considering new trade agreements, and would obligate future administrations—both Democrat and Republican—to pursue other progressive priorities in future trade agreements, as well. Without TPA and the important new trade initiatives that it would enable, other countries—particularly China—would have much greater influence in setting global trade norms that fail to reflect high standards or progressive goals.

“Key Democratic and progressive constituencies support TPA and new trade agreements. In endorsing TPA, the U.S. Conference of Mayors has emphasized that expanding trade is critical for good jobs in America’s metro areas, which depend on exports for fully one-third of their economic growth. And, according to recent opinion surveys, Democrats (58 percent), millennials (69 percent), and Hispanics (71 percent) all believe that free trade agreements are, on balance, good for the United States.

“PPI applauds those House Democrats who have stood up forthrightly for liberal trade and TPA. As the House takes up TPA tomorrow, we hope others also will reject the spurious arguments and bullying of anti-trade activists who yearn for the industrial landscape of the 1970s and imagine that Americans can prosper in isolation from the rest of the world.”

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PPI Applauds Senate Passage of TPA

PPI applauds the Senate for passing Trade Promotion Authority and taking a key step in assuring that America continues to be a global leader in crafting strong, progressive trade rules that will help grow our economy and support good jobs—while also advancing important American values.

As PPI has detailed in recent reports on the Administration’s trade agenda and open digital trade, new U.S. trade agreements can make vital progress on issues that are important to Democrats and progressives. They can, for example, tap a growing global middle class to power more inclusive American economic growth, expand the reach of strong rules on labor rights and environment protection, reform past agreements like NAFTA, and “democratize” trade by empowering entrepreneurs, small businesses, and consumers to more directly participate in and benefit from global commerce.

TPA would provide a fair and more open process for considering new trade agreements, and would obligate future Administrations—both Democrat and Republican—to pursue these and other progressive provisions in future trade agreements, as well.

Finally, today’s vote illustrates the leverage that pro-growth, pro-trade Democrats can exercise in trade debates. As trade legislation moves to the House, PPI urges Democrats to continue to work constructively to build smart, progressive policies that enhance America’s global competitiveness. In addition to support for TPA, these efforts should include a comprehensive program of reform—in education, training, innovation, infrastructure, and more—like that proposed in the New Democrat Coalition’s American Prosperity Agenda. Unlike reflexive opposition to new trade initiatives, this approach will assure that America—and more Americans—can share in the significant benefits of global growth.

PPI Statement on Senate Trade Vote: Don’t Misread Vote as Repudiation of TPA

It would be a huge mistake to misread today’s Senate trade vote as a repudiation of Trade Promotion Authority and the U.S. trade agenda. The pro-trade Democrats who provided the decisive votes today were not voting against TPA, but were seeking to include other trade measures—including those on trade enforcement and trade with Africa—in the debate. There are various ways to address concerns about these important issues and we hope that trade supporters in the Senate can work together to craft a solution that allows the vital debate on trade to proceed.

As PPI has explained in recent reports on the Obama Administration’s trade agenda and on open digital trade, new U.S. trade agreements have the potential to advance goals that are important to Democrats and progressives. These new initiatives can, for example, tap a growing global middle class to help power American economic growth, expand the reach of strong rules on labor rights and environment protections, update past agreements like NAFTA, and “democratize” trade by empowering entrepreneurs, small businesses and consumers to more directly participate in and benefit from global commerce. TPA would provide a fair and considered process for considering new trade deals, and would obligate future Administrations—both Democrat and Republican—to seek these and other progressive provisions in future trade agreements, as well.

Today’s developments illustrate the leverage that pro-trade Democrats can exercise in trade debates. PPI hopes that more Democrats will engage in constructive efforts to build and support a progressive pro-trade agenda. Simply working to kill TPA legislation, and other reflexive opposition to new trade initiatives, does little to advance important progressive goals.

Gerwin for Republic 3.0: The Digital Economy, Trade Agreements and the 99 Percent

Who benefits from trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)?

Critics—like Joseph Stiglitz and Senator Elizabeth Warren—charge that these agreements would primarily help the world’s one percent. Stiglitz, for example, claims there’s a real risk that TPP will “benefit the wealthiest sliver of the American and global elite at the expense of everyone else.”

But a rapidly growing segment of the 99 percent—entrepreneurs, small businesses, and consumers who trade globally on the Internet—likely sees things differently. For these newly empowered traders, the TPP—and pacts like the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA)—can play a critical role in supporting their businesses by writing new rules that promote and protect electronic trade.

Continue Reading at Republic 3.0.

The Digital Opportunity: Democratizing Trade for the 99 Percent

Trade critics often charge that proposed trade agreements like the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) essentially serve the one percent—while harming virtually everyone else. But new trade pacts actually present a significant opportunity to drive more inclusive trade—especially by supporting the revolution in digitally enabled global commerce.

In this policy brief, we explain why it is critical for America to lead in writing modern trade rules that promote the free flow of data and open digital commerce. And we highlight some of the many ways in which the 99 percent—from entrepreneurs and small businesses to consumers and communities—benefit from “democratized” trade in a global digital economy that is both open and fair.

Who Benefits from New Trade Deals?
Over the past three decades, America’s trade agreements have become increasingly complex. While early trade agreements were focused on eliminating high tariffs, modern trade pacts also address non-tariff and “behind the border” barriers, like standards that discriminate against imported products or rules that discourage foreign investment.

To President Obama and supporters of trade promotion authority (TPA) legislation, addressing “21st Century” issues in the TPP and other new trade pacts would enable America to benefit broadly from expanding trade with a growing global economy.

Download “2015.05-Gerwin_The-Digital-Economy-Trade-Agreements-and-the-99-Percent”