Governor Markell for The Atlantic: Americans Need Jobs, Not Populism

In an op-ed for The Atlantic, Governor Jack Markell (D-Del.) argues that instead of raging against a “rigged” system, Democrats should work together with business to build an economy that distributes its benefits more broadly.

The bottom line is that private enterprise creates the primary condition for reducing poverty and want: economic growth. Governments don’t create jobs; however, government has an ability and responsibility to create a nurturing environment where business leaders and entrepreneurs want to locate and expand. What that means is that government has an active role in creating an economic environment that creates middle class success and prosperity. …

Long-term success requires an active government that partners with business to ensure that the bounty of economic growth is shared broadly. Sharing this bounty is not about having a “bleeding heart.” It’s a matter of cold economic sense.  

I am hugely bullish about the future of the American economy because I believe in investing in people, engaging with the world and sharing broadly the bounty that economic growth will generate. Growing without sharing won’t get it done.  And neither will redistribution without growth. Americans really are in this together.

Read the piece in its entirety at The Atlantic.

The Hill: Pelosi’s choice: Obama or left?

Ed Gerwin, PPI Senior Fellow for Trade and Global Opportunity, was quoted in the The Hill on how Nancy Pelosi is confronting a conundrum on trade as she walks a delicate line between the president she champions and the caucus she leads:

Ed Gerwin, a trade expert with the Progressive Policy Institute, a rare liberal group that supports the fast-track bill, said Pelosi’s reticence is bolstering Obama’s hand.

“Whether or not she ends up as a supporter, what she has been doing is very helpful in trying to get to yes, on trade,” Gerwin said. “What Pelosi has been doing, combined with the significant efforts by Wyden in the Senate, may allow Democrats to put more of a stamp on trade and may help some members keep an open mind on TPA and eventual trade deals.”

Read the piece in its entirety at The Hill.

CNN: Why trade is in the national interest

Withstanding intense pressure from anti-trade “progressives” — an oxymoron if ever there was one — Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, has struck a deal with Congressional Republicans to move a bipartisan trade promotion authority bill.

Wyden’s display of grit is good news for the cooling U.S. economy, which needs a lift from export-led growth; for American workers, who need the jobs and rising pay that come with rising exports and stronger growth; and for President Barack Obama, who needs the authority to complete negotiations over three major trade pacts and get them through Congress.

Wyden is a staunch liberal, but one with an independent streak who’d rather solve problems than strike poses. But committing acts of political leadership is dangerous in Washington these days, and Wyden can expect more abuse from “populists” within his own party. That’s a shame, because the Oregon Democrat has actually moved trade promotion authority (TPA) in a more progressive direction.

Continue Reading at CNN

The Hill: Is it that hard for a party to hold the White House for three terms?

Going into 2016, Democrats seem to face a daunting challenge in holding the presidency for a third consecutive term. Indeed, this feat has only been accomplished once since 1950, when George H.W. Bush succeeded the highly popular Ronald Reagan in 1988. However, a closer look at the historical record may give Democrats more reason for hope.

Looking back, long runs of single-party dominance were once the norm in American politics. Republicans won four consecutive terms between 1896 and 1908, and three more in the 1920s. The Democrats then had a five-term juggernaut from 1932 to 1948.

Granted, this was a long time ago, and these streaks followed turning-point elections that produced enduring political realignments heavily favoring one party over the other, namely Republicans after 1896 and then Democrats after 1932. In recent decades, the two major parties have been more evenly matched and have more regularly alternated in the White House.

Continue reading at The Hill.

Taxing Intangibles: The Law of Unintended Consequences

Can efforts to put new and stricter tax rules on tech and other knowledge companies actually backfire and hurt global growth?

There’s a sense of outrage and worry in Europe that American tech giants such as Google and Apple seem to be beating European rivals soundly. At the same time, governments claim that many global companies—including but not exclusively American tech companies—have been able to game the international tax system to great advantage. Given the need for revenue to support social benefits, that puts global companies in the cross-hairs of policymakers.

In an effort to stop global companies from escaping the grasp of domestic tax collectors, experts at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the Paris-based group of developed countries, are developing a new set of principles for international tax cooperation. This effort, known as the Base Ero-sion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project, has resulted in a series of documents out-lining some of these new principles, with more to come over the next year

These new principles—called ‘Actions’—are intended to transform the global tax system. As one OECD document says: “The BEPS project marks a turning point in the history of international co-operation on taxation.” (OECD 2013). Moreover, even though international tax policy is generally a matter for bilateral treaties be-tween individual governments—the BEPS project is developing the first multilat-eral “instrument” that would supersede and modify existing bilateral treaties.

Download “2015.04-Mandel_Taxing-Intangibles_The-Law-of-Unintended-Consequences.pdf”

The Hill: How the Obama trade agenda can advance progressive goals

In the last month, protesters have camped out in the Washington office of Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and have even flown a 30-foot blimp over his town halls in Oregon. The senator’s offense? As the ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, Wyden is negotiating with the Obama administration and pro-trade Republicans and Democrats on Trade Promotion Authority (TPA)—legislation that would set requirements for new trade agreements and rules for how they’re considered by Congress.

Wyden believes that—if done right—new trade deals with Asia (TPP) and Europe (TTIP) coupled with strong enforcement can promote stronger growth and good jobs in his trade-dependent state, while also advancing important values like environmental protection, labor rights and an open Internet.

For the protesters, however, opposition to free trade agreements is an article of faith in their version of the progressive cannon.  Since the great NAFTA debate of the 1990s, trade has often been a polarizing issue among progressives. But key developments since then—the rise of China, the dramatic growth in digital trade via the Internet, and concerns about a long-term slowdown in U.S. growth—give progressives good reasons to think again.

Trade-skeptical Democrats should use the debate on Trade Promotion Authority to take a fresh look at President Obama’s far-reaching trade initiatives. As we’ve detailed in a recent Progressive Policy Institute report, open-minded progressives can find many examples of how the Administration is combining smart trade policy and progressive ideals to advance vital goals while strengthening both the United States and the global economy:

Tapping into Global Growth. Assuring that Americans have a fairer slice of the economic pie is easier when the pie is growing.

In the past, America’s middle class fueled growth in the rest of the world. Now, an exploding global middle class—especially in Asia—can return the favor. By 2030, Asia will add 1.2 billion new middle class consumers to the global economy. These global consumers will want to buy what America has to sell—from wholesome food and cutting-edge consumer products to modern financial services and health care.

Trade initiatives like the TPP can help America’s businesses and workers tap into growing global demand by eliminating high duties, discriminatory standards, and other significant barriers to U.S. exports.  And­—if combined with progressive initiatives in areas like education and training—growing trade can help support broad-based American prosperity.

Democratizing Trade. Trade agreements can also “democratize” trade by empowering small business and global consumers.

The Internet and services like eBay and FedEx make it increasingly possible for America’s small exporters to sell globally as easily as their bigger rivals. Small firms that export do well—with 20 percent greater productivity and 20 percent higher job growth than those that don’t. But an array of trade barriers—including high duties and fees and complex standards—still make it difficult for smaller exporters to compete.

U.S. trade negotiators are focusing intensively on eliminating small business trade barriers in the TPP and T-TIP. And they’re working to foster a robust trade ecosystem for small traders by promoting transparent rules, open electronic commerce, and strong protection for innovation. Opening up modern Internet-enabled trade can provide global consumers with greater choice, freedom, and economic power, as well.

Leading on Fairer Trade. Trade agreements like TPP and T-TIP help America lead coalitions of like-minded countries that seek a fairer global trading system in which abuses like exploiting workers, despoiling the environment, or blocking the Internet are not longer accepted means of competition.

Based on a 2007 deal initiated by House Democrats, U.S. trade agreements now include strong and enforceable rules that require trading partners to abide by and enforce fundamental labor rights and key environmental laws and agreements. TPP and T-TIP negotiations afford the opportunity to extend these—and other important progressive principles—to two-thirds of global trade. If America doesn’t lead, however, countries like China may succeed with a competing trade model—one that ignores values like worker rights, environmental protection, and an open Internet.

Updating Trade Rules.  New trade deals also provide the opportunity to update old trade rules and write important new ones.

Critics of NAFTA, for example, have long complained that its “side agreements” on labor and the environment contain weaker requirements that are neither part of NAFTA nor enforceable under that agreement. Negotiating with Canada and Mexico in the TPP can help assure that trade with America’s first and third largest trading partners is governed by strong, modern, and enforceable labor and environmental rules.

Additionally, new trade agreements can address an array of emerging challenges to U.S. trade, including State-Owned Enterprises that use government subsidies and special privileges to gain unfair advantages, and a growing list of barriers to innovation and electronic commerce.

Supporting a Progressive Growth Agenda. Finally, progressives can use a thoughtful trade debate to remind colleagues that trade is only one piece of America’s larger economic puzzle.

A new study by Progressive Economy concludes that trade is likely not a major cause—nor a major solution—for the serious problem of income inequality. The study notes that trade policy can make key contributions by, for example, driving stronger growth and reducing high duties that particularly impact lower-income Americans.  But, ultimately, solving America’s major economic problems will also require many domestic initiatives long championed by progressives, including better access to education and training, and investment in innovation and infrastructure.

When it comes to trade, not all progressive-leaning Americans are flying protest blimps. Indeed, according to recent polling, some 60 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of millennials believe that trade deals like TPP and T-TIP are “good” for America. It’s time for progressives to avoid reflexive opposition and take a fresh look at the U.S. trade agenda.

The Iran deal and collective security

A buoyant President Obama announced on April 2 “a historic understanding with Iran” to defang its nuclear program. Chalk one up for the president’s oft-criticized Middle East diplomacy.

If it holds, the deal will indeed be a major foreign policy accomplishment for a president who badly needs one. But equally, if not more important, it could breathe new life into collective security.

That’s the vision of liberal internationalists like Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman. After the colossal failure of balance-of-power politics to keep peace in Europe, they envisioned a new order upheld by great powers acting through legitimizing organizations like the United Nations and formal alliances like NATO.

Continue reading at the Hill.

Rotherham: No Congressional District Left Behind

In an op-ed today for U.S. News & World Report, Andrew Rotherham, cofounder and partner at Bellwether Education Partners, intriguingly argues that the best school reform idea is to fix the gerrymandering of legislative districts:

One of the interesting things about my job is that wealthy people ask me for ideas about how best to use their resources to improve America’s schools. There are plenty of important issues demanding attention: overhauling the sorry state of teacher preparation and teacher policy (I wrote an entire guidebook about that), giving low-income Americans more educational choice and improving educational finance are three obvious ones. But, to the consternation of colleagues in the education world, I don’t first suggest those or other specific education issues. Instead, I urge donors to support efforts to reform congressional redistricting. We won’t be able to genuinely improve our schools (or address a host of other issues) until we create legislative districts based on geography rather than gerrymandering.

Read the op-ed in its entirety at U.S. News & World Report. 

The Hill: With Schumer likely next Senate Dem leader, a trend is broken

The announcement that Harry Reid will be retiring from the Senate in 2016, and likely succeeded by Chuck Schumer of New York as Democratic leader, would break a long streak in which floor leaders of the Senate — both majority and minority leaders — have predominantly hailed from smaller states. It’s a little-recognized pattern that for several decades has expanded the influence of small states that are already greatly overrepresented in the Senate by virtue of the equal-representation principle that allocates two senators to each state.

he pattern is undeniable: No Senate floor leader since Republican Hugh Scott of Pennsylvania left the minority leadership in 1977 has been from one of the nine largest states, which cumulatively make up more than half of the U.S. population. Indeed, nearly all Senate leaders have been from the bottom half of the states when ranked by population, including some of the very smallest in the Union.

To wit: Over the past three decades, the Republican leaders in the Senate have been Howard Baker of Tennessee (17th-largest state today), Bob Dole of Kansas (34th), Trent Lott of Mississippi (31st), Bill Frist of Tennessee (17th) and currently Mitch McConnell of Kentucky (26th).

Continue reading at the Hill.

The Hill: Obama trade agenda

PPI President Will Marshall was quoted by Kevin Cirilli in The Hill on the growing tensions in the Democratic party over President Obama’s trade agenda:

Will Marshall, president of centrist Democratic think tank the Progressive Policy Institute, said that “Democratic candidates in 2016 aren’t going to get into trouble for supporting” the trade agreements.

“Most voters understand that America can’t prosper in isolation and they have little interest in yet another reenactment of the long-ago battle of NAFTA,” he said.

Continue reading at The Hill.

CNN: Why liberals should get behind marriage

The collapse of marriage in our poorest communities — and its tragic impact — is a familiar story. But increasingly, marriage is becoming a marker of class privilege in America, something increasingly reserved for the affluent. If progressives want to tackle the scourge of inequality, then the retreat from marriage is an issue they can’t ignore.

The reality is that the retreat from marriage is pervading the working middle class — the two-thirds of Americans without a college degree. This is occurring even as in upscale America, marital bonds remain comparatively strong.

“This is the marriage gap, and it’s something new in America,” declares a manifesto on “marriage opportunity” unveiled in a recent Washington Monthly cover story. It was penned by four astute social and political analysts, David Blankenhorn, Jonathan Rauch, Barbara Dafoe Whitehead and Bill Galston. (Full disclosure: I’m a signer of their statement.)

“Over the past several decades, the norm of marriage has eroded across all economic and educational classes, but much less among the elite,” they write. “But for millions of middle- and lower-class Americans, marriage is increasingly beyond reach, creating more fractured and difficult family lives, more economic insecurity for single parents, less social mobility for those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder, more childhood stress, and a fraying of our common culture.”

True, overall U.S. marriage rates have fallen from 72% of U.S. adults in 1960 to just 51% in 2012, according to The Economist. But drill a little deeper into the data, and a marital class divide emerges. Less than half of men with high school degrees are married, compared with 76% of men with college degrees. The pattern is similar among women, except that those with graduate degrees have somewhat lower marriage rates than those with four-year college degrees. And because the college-educated tend to look for mates with similar education and earning power, their unions push them even higher up the income scale — further widening the economic gulf between marital haves and have-nots.

Continue reading at CNN.

House New Democrat Coalition Unveils Pro-growth Policy Agenda

Today, the House New Democrat Coalition unveiled a comprehensive, pro-growth policy agenda. 

After suffering enormous losses in the last two midterm elections, Democrats need a new strategy for recapturing Congress.  Such a strategy should aim at winning back competitive districts, largely in suburban America, and it would target moderate voters, without whom the party cannot build electoral majorities.

The New Democrat Coalition’s prosperity agenda is an important step toward crafting a winning strategy. It presents a new policy blueprint for pragmatic Democrats, who want to break the political stalemate in Washington and get things done. Most important, it outlines a progressive, pro-growth alternative to a polarizing populism that can only narrow the party’s appeal.

This agenda aims squarely at lifting and expanding the middle class. It puts growth before redistribution, and builds on America’s strengths in rapid innovation and entrepreneurship. It seeks to expand vital investments in infrastructure and a skilled workforce, but it also recognizes that tax reform and regulatory improvement are also key catalysts of growth.  And, crucially, the NDC recognizes that the right way to restore public confidence in government is not simply to enlarge it, but to reform and modernize it.

With this document, the NDC is assuming a position of intellectual and political leadership in the party.  It’s important that its voice be heard, because its members know how to compete and win in precisely the kind of competitive districts Democrats need to retake.

Roll Call: Centrist New Democrats Want Bigger Role in Party’s Message

PPI President Will Marshall was quoted in a piece by Roll Call laying out the role of pragmatic progressives this Congress and their hope to make their centrist message heard in the larger, and distinctly more left-leaning, House Democratic Caucus:

Will Marshall, president of the Progressive Policy Institute, said that House Democratic leaders ultimately have a responsibility to represent the ideology of the majority of their members.

“The leaders have to reflect the caucus, right? And numerically speaking, the people in the caucus now have the lefter-tilt,” Marshall explained. “To the extent that there’s resistance [to the New Democrats], I don’t think it comes from the leaders as it does from the left wing of the party. Folks that are in very safe Democratic districts, very urban districts that produce supermajorities, people who are not vulnerable, they’re just under a different set of incentives and frankly they have closer ties to groups that are happier with the party’s status quo than the moderates are.”

Read the piece in its entirety on Roll Call.

The Hill: Centrist Dems ready strike against Warren wing

PPI President Will Marshall was quoted today in a story by The Hill on the role of pragmatic progressives in the 114th Congress:

“Democrats ought to avoid the danger of talking about only redistribution and not enough about economic growth,” said PPI President and founder Will Marshall, who addressed House Democrats during their Philadelphia retreat in January. “Economic growth is a precondition to reducing inequality. You can’t redistribute wealth that you’re not generating.

“There’s a lot of sympathy for that view in the pragmatic-wing of the party,” he added.

Read the piece in its entirety on The Hill.

Will a strict privacy bill of rights hurt growth?

The White House has come out with a discussion draft of a consumer privacy bill of rights. I’m not going to discuss the details of the proposal, which has already come under attack from both sides.

Instead, let me make a broader point: The advocacy of a strict privacy standard has the potential of harming the one sector that has been driving growth in consumer living standards. To summarize:

  • The living standard of Americans is stuck in slow gear. Per capita real consumption has only risen by 3.2% since 2007, in total.
  • More than half of the gain in living standards since 2007 has come from the rapid growth of data-related goods and services.*
  • A strict privacy bill of rights will almost certainly slow the growth of data-related goods and services.
  • Conclusion: A strict privacy bill of rights, if enacted, will inevitably further drag down the already slow growth in living standards.

Do Democrats who support a strict privacy standard understand the economic consequences of imposing more regulations on the sector which has been the main force for lifting living standards since the bust?  Do they understand the political consequences of being anti-growth?  And does the Administration realize that its proposal effectively gives the Europeans and others the ok to go over the top with regulation of US tech companies?

I don’t know the answer to these questions.

*This figure comes from an upcoming PPI policy memo,  “The Tech/Info Sector: Economic Hero or Market Predator?”  The upcoming policy memo defines the ‘consumer data ecosystem’ as including all data-related goods and services—that is, personal consumption of all types of goods and services that involve the transmission, delivery, and consumption of data. This includes personal computing devices, such as smartphones, tablets, and laptops. It also includes video and audio equipment, such as televisions and iPods, newspaper and periodicals, movie theater revenues, books, live entertainment such as music performances, cable and satellite subscriptions, cell phone and data plans, and Internet access.

Other results from the policy memo:

  •  Average prices in the consumer data ecosystem have fallen by 16% since 2007, and by 31% since 2000.
  • The consumer data ecosystem’s share of consumer spending is the same as it was in 2000.

These figures may be revised slightly as the government updates its statistics.

 

 

 

Politico Pro: Report urges progressives to reconsider Obama trade agenda

PPI Senior Fellow Ed Gerwin’s latest report was featured in a trade story by Politico Pro‘s Doug Palmer:

A new report urges progressive Democrats opposed to President Barack Obama’s trade agenda with countries in the Asia-Pacific to give it another look, arguing that trade deals support progressive goals in a variety of ways, including by helping economic growth.

“Trade-skeptical progressives … should take a thoughtful look at the details of the Obama trade agenda and how it might better position America in the modern global economy,” Ed Gerwin, a senior fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute, said in the report. “If they do, they’re likely to find important policies and initiatives for progressives to like.”

“A progressive society that is both prosperous and fair requires strong and inclusive economic growth. The Administration’s trade agenda can play an important role in assuring that America can tap into one key source of economic vitality — surging demand in key foreign markets,” Gerwin said.

The report comes as Congress is gearing up for action on trade promotion authority, also known as fast-track trade legislation because it would allow the White House to submit trade agreements to Congress for straight up-or-down votes without any amendments.