William Galston for Medium: A Response to Stan Greenberg on the New Politics of Evasion

Originally shared on PPI’s Medium channel

By William Galston

We wrote “The New Politics of Evasion” to spark a discussion about the future course of the Democratic Party, and we are pleased that Stan Greenberg has responded to it at length. While he agrees with us about the counterproductive stances that Democrats have adopted on cultural and identity issues, he accuses us of constructing a “myth” that keeps us from seeing the working-class voter.

As far as we can tell, Greenberg does not challenge any of the data we presented in a detailed 25-page report to support our picture of the electorate. Still, he flatly rejects our claim that “Most Americans want evolutionary, not revolutionary change,” arguing that “voters are hungry for big change, after decades of spiking economic and political equality.” Perhaps so, although the Democratic Party twice rejected the candidacy of a politician who described himself as a socialist and called for a political revolution. In any event, the electorate’s alleged hunger for big change is the assumption that guided the Biden administration’s first year, with decidedly mixed results. Let us try to analyze our disagreement.

Greenberg’s response to our report begins, oddly, with a history of economic policies during the Clinton administration in which we all served. If Greenberg sees the Clinton administration’s program as evidence that the American people want revolutionary rather than evolutionary change, then our disagreement is merely verbal. And we greatly prefer Greenberg’s take on the Clinton administration to the standard progressive charge that Clinton was a neoliberal shill who gave away the store to multinational corporations while middle-class and working Americans languished.

The subtitle of our article reads “How Ignoring Swing Voters Could Reopen the Door for Donald Trump and Threaten American Democracy.” This points to the analytical source of our disagreement with Greenberg. While he focuses on working-class voters, our “swing” category includes not only the working-class but also moderate, independent, and suburban voters.

In our view, swing voters are those whose votes are not determined by partisan affiliation and who shift between the parties depending on candidates, policies, and circumstances. In 2020, Joe Biden improved over Hillary Clinton’s performance in the suburbs by 9 points, from 45% to 54%; among independents, by 10 points, from 42% to 52%; among moderates, by 12 points, from 52% to 64%. Biden’s gain among white working-class voters was a more modest 5 points, from Hillary Clinton’s dismal 28% showing to a more respectable 33%.

This relatively small swing among white working-class voters was no anomaly. As Greenberg knows as well as anyone, Democrats’ struggles with white working-class voters, the heart of the vanished New Deal coalition, are not of recent vintage. These voters began to break away from the Democratic Party in the late 1960s, moved by discontent over the increasing support within the party for anti-war sentiments, the counterculture, feminism, environmentalism, civil rights, and social policies for minority groups.

The impact of this discontent was immediate and profound. In the 1960 and 1964 elections, white working-class support for Democrats averaged 55%. In the 1968 and 1972 elections, this support fell to 35%. As Ruy Teixeira and Alan Abramowitz put it, after 1972, “the Democrats were the party of the white working class no longer.” In 1980 and 1984, Ronald Reagan averaged 65% of their vote, compared to 35% for Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale. The last Democrat to get even a plurality of their vote was Bill Clinton. Al Gore lost them by 17 points, John Kerry by 23. Barack Obama lost them by 18 points in 2008 and 25 points in 2012.

This is not an argument for ignoring white working-class voters, who make up above-average shares of the electorate in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. But it is a reminder that their disaffection from the Democratic Party is deep-rooted and longstanding — and that in the 21st century, other groups of voters are more likely to “swing” in response to positions that the Democratic Party’s coalition embrace.

Joe Biden worked harder to reach white working-class voters than any other Democratic candidate in decades. He emphasized his working-class roots at every turn and campaigned on what he termed a “transformational” economic agenda. As we have seen, he moved the needle, but not much. Democrats’ positions on social and cultural issues limited the impact of their economic agenda for this portion of the electorate, as they have for half a century.

In addition, there is reason to doubt how popular the Democrats’ economic offer to the white working class really was. According to a Marist poll conducted in December 2021, 67% of this group reported receiving $1,400 stimulus payments, but just 17% said that these checks had helped them “a lot.” Thirteen percent received the monthly expanded child credit, but only 4% said that these payments had helped their households significantly. And as of last December, just 32% supported the administration’s Build Back Better bill, versus 43% opposed. Reaction to Build Back Better was muted across most of the electorate, with 41% in favor, 34% opposed, and 25% unsure. The bill did better among suburban voters (51% approval) but worse among Independents (36%). The Marist poll did not provide a breakdown by ideology.

We expected that white working-class voters would be more supportive of the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and they were, with 45% indicating their approval. But even here, they were significantly less favorable than were all voters (56%), whites with college degrees (61%), non-whites (65%) Independents (54%), and suburban voters (67%). In today’s low-trust environment, white-working class voters seem even less likely than other groups to believe that government can improve their lives.

The subtitle of Greenberg’s article summarizes what he terms the “real lesson” for the entire Democratic Party: “Offer a hopeful vision where all Americans make progress.” We could not agree more. Here’s what we said in the concluding section of our report:

“The American people favor policies that expand opportunity and mobility while protecting them against negative economic developments with which individuals and families cannot cope on their own. And they favor fairness, including asking corporations and wealthy individuals to contribute more to build an economy that works for all, not just a favored few. They do not favor limited government as Republicans have long defined it; they want protection against the excesses and inadequacies of the market, but they do not want socialism. The administration should offer policies within this framework, and they should defend them by appealing to these widely held values.”

Although we may disagree with Greenberg on some policy specifics, we see no inconsistency in principle between our message and the “hopeful vision” that he urges the party to offer. And we agree with Greenberg that the Democratic Party’s stance on issues such as crime is getting in the way of this vision. In words that Democrats of all stripes should ponder, he insists that Democrats’ emphasis on systemic racism “doesn’t align with the vision of America as an immigrant country where all ultimately make progress” and alienates Hispanic as well as white working-class voters. He reports that Black voters in his focus groups “want to be part of an American story where their community continues to make progress.” This is consistent with our view.

In the end, we are encouraged by Greenberg’s critique of our report. If the disagreement between center-left and progressive political analysts goes no deeper than this, then we are more unified than we had dared to hope. In the difficult days ahead, Democrats will need all the unity they can get.

RAS Reports: Democrats Stand Up for Charter Schools

On this episode of RAS Reports, Tressa Pankovits, Co-Director of the Reinventing America’s Schools Project sits down with New Mexico State Senator Siah Correa Hemphill and Representative Joy Garratt to talk about a bill they successfully sponsored and passed into law this legislative session. New Mexico House Bill 43 creates a revolving facility fund that charter schools can access in order to provide high quality buildings for their students. In today’s highly polarized environment, with many many lawmakers turning their backs on charters at the behest of the teachers unions, these two Democrats are standing for charter schools and their students and families.

Broadening co-pay caps to chronic diseases in Medicare Part D

In his State of the Union speech, President Joe Biden called for capping the monthly out-of-pocket spending by patients on insulin to $35 per month. “For Joshua, and for the 200,000 other young people with Type 1 diabetes, let’s cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month so everyone can afford it.” Indeed, the Build Back Better bill calls for setting insulin monthly payments at the lesser of $35 or 25% of the net price including all rebates and discounts, even if the plan’s deductible has not been reached. The “Affordable Insulin Now Act,” introduced by Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., in the Senate and the companion bill, sponsored by Representative Angie Craig in the House, take a similar approach.

But why stop there? At this time of accelerating inflation and rampant economic uncertainty, it would be both good policy and good politics for Congress and the Administration to consider extending the principle of capped first-dollar co-pays to a broader class of medicines in Part D to treat chronic conditions such as diabetes, asthma, and congestive heart failure, as well as medicines aimed at preventing stroke. These are medicines where regular use translates directly into better health outcomes and lower hospital costs.

In practice, we’re talking about implementing capped, first-dollar co-pays for chronic diseases for Medicare Part D recipients. Why is this good politics? Americans, and in particular seniors, are begging for some relief from rising costs. Not everyone has a chronic condition, but most people know someone (like their parents) who do, and it can be a shock to see how much drugs cost them. Instituting certainty in patient out-of-pocket costs would definitely reduce the level of apprehension.

PPI has long focused on the need to cap co-pays. In October 2019 we put out our trailblazing policy brief, “The Prescription Escalator: The Real Reason Why Americans Pay More for Drugs Each Year, Why They Are So Upset, and What Can Be Done About It.” As part of that brief, we reported that Americans found themselves paying for more and more essential medicines as they aged, many for chronic conditions. That meant they get hit by soaring spending, even if the price of individual medicines didn’t change much.

Originally, the idea behind deductibles and co-insurance — co-pays that are a percentage of the list price — was to give patients some skin in the game. If they absorbed a share of the cost, the theory went, they would be more likely to seek out the lowest cost medicines.
But forcing patients to bear a flexible share of costs hasn’t worked out as expected, especially for Medicare Part D recipients. Because of perverse incentives in Part D, drug insurance plans, pharmacies, PBMs, and manufacturers gravitated towards setting high list prices, offset by huge rebates and discounts. One result was low net prices for payers, which is good.

The downside is that co-insurance is usually based on the inflated list price, so consumers don’t see the “true” net prices. Similarly, before consumers meet their deductible, they are paying list price. In either case, consumers can be hit by out-of-control costs that have nothing to do with true net prices.
A policy of capping co-pays starting at the first dollar for medicines to treat chronic disease is a straightforward way of offering certainty to the patients who need it the most—those who need their medicines just to survive. And they don’t balance the budget on the backs of those in ill-health. Moreover, when patients fill and take these chronic meds regularly, it avoids spikes in hospital and other health costs.

How much will the co-pay caps cost, and who pays? Given the massive redesign of the Part D program that is also part of Build Back Better, it’s tough to say for sure. The government would have to ante up some additional subsidies, but the cost of capping co-pays would be reduced because the redesign would eliminate the coverage gap which is now part of Part D and which produced some huge patient payments. In addition, the redesign would limit out-of-pocket payments to $2,000 annually across all drugs, and a number of drugs would be chosen for price negotiation by the government. For medicines selected for price negotiation, the subsequent lower cost to Part D would greatly help to offset reduced patient cost sharing. And for competing medicines not selected for negotiation, insurance companies and PBMs will have bargaining leverage to command higher rebates, similarly reducing net prices and also helping to offset costs of better patient access.

This is the right time now to extend Biden’s insulin proposal to other medicines for chronic conditions. Capping co-pays for medicines that older Americans have to take is the quickest and most direct way to introduce more certainty into an uncertain economy.

Progressive Policy Institute’s Statement on Senate Confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court

Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released the following statements on the Senate confirmation of Ketanji Brown Jackson as Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court:

“The Progressive Policy Institute congratulates Judge Kentanji Brown Jackson for her elevation to the U.S. Supreme Court. Her bright legal mind and even judicial temperament have earned her wide acclaim throughout a distinguished legal career. That 47 Republican Senators voted not to confirm her for no reason other than the most reflexive and dishonest kind of partisanship is all that mars this otherwise happy civic ceremony. We thank President Biden for nominating Justice Jackson and look forward to seeing her on the bench,” said Will Marshall, President of the Progressive Policy Institute.

“The importance of this confirmation cannot be overstated. Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is one of the most qualified candidates ever to be nominated to the highest court in the land. She will make history as the first Black woman to serve on the Supreme Court,” said Jasmine Stoughton, Program Manager of PPI’s Mosaic Economic Project.

The Mosaic Economic Project is a network of diverse women with expertise in the fields of economics and technology. Mosaic programming aims to bring new voices to the policy arena by connecting cohort members with opportunities to engage with top industry leaders, lawmakers, and the media.

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.

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Media Contact: Aaron White; awhite@ppionline.org

Marshall for The Hill: Bureaucratic gremlins attack charter schools

By Will Marshall

In Washington, presidents and lawmakers come and go, but special interests dig in and never leave. They love to burrow into the sprawling federal bureaucracy, where they can stealthily wreak havoc on laws they don’t like.

If you want to catch these bureaucratic gremlins at work, take a look at the U.S. Education Department (ED). On March 14, ED proposed new regulations aimed at retarding the spread of public charter schools, despite growing public demand for them. During the pandemic, enrollment has declined in conventional K-12 schools, while charter schools have long waiting lists — around 50,000 children in New York City alone.

The target of this bureaucratic sabotage is one of President Clinton’s trademark innovations, the 1994 Federal Charter School Program (CSP). While state and local governments are chiefly responsible for operating elementary and secondary schools, CSP acknowledges a vital national interest in ensuring that all of America’s children, regardless of their socioeconomic status, have access to a world-class public education.

Unfortunately, that’s not the case today. The nation’s poor communities have too many substandard schools, as reflected in stubborn achievement gaps by race and ethnicity. Judging by U.S. students’ underwhelming performance on international reading, math and science tests, mediocrity also abounds in many of our suburban schools.

Read the full piece in The Hill. 

PPI’s Trade Fact of the Week: Every American earthworm north of the Mason-Dixon Line is an alien invader

FACT:

Every American earthworm north of the Mason-Dixon Line is an alien invader.

 

THE NUMBERS: 

Number of identified North American species:*     ~160,000
Number of “invasive species” in North America:        ~6,500

* Not counting nematodes, microorganisms, or flatworms.

 

WHAT THEY MEAN:

The gardener loves him/her*; the northern forestry manager fears him/her. A worried observation from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

“All of the terrestrial earthworms in Minnesota are non-native, invasive species from Europe and Asia.  …  [A]t least seven species are invading our hardwood forests and causing the loss of tree seedlings, wildflowers, and ferns.”

A hundred native North American worm varieties happily navigate the red and black earth of the American south, and a few more cling on in the Pacific Northwest. In Canada, New England, Pennsylvania, and the upper Midwest, though, the last Ice Age froze off the local worms above a latitude roughly matching that of the Mason-Dixon Line.** The 15 or so worm species common in these parts now are all descendants of European worms brought in after the Mayflower landing. As such, they are “invasive species,” spreading north and west at a pace of about 50 feet per year, and forestry science views them as dangerous pests. Eating off the forest “duff layer” of dead leaves and organic matter as they go, the Euro-worms trigger a long and depressing chain of events: soil compaction, loss of small forest plants and tree seedlings, decline of native orchids and wildflowers, reduction of habitat for small animals, slower forest regeneration, increased vulnerability to pests, ultimately “a grave threat to the biodiversity and long-term stability of hardwood forest ecosystems.”

Dollying up and back for a robin’s-eye view of the matter, the 15 worms are one group of many invaders. Excluding microbes, flatworms and nematodes — not because they don’t matter, but they’re hard to count — North America is home to about 165,000 species of animals, fungi, and plants. Ignoring the traditional kingdom/phylum/order courtesies, they are arranged as follows:

Ignoring the traditional kingdom/phylum/order courtesies, they are arranged as follows: 90,000 insects; 45,000 fungi; 17,000 plants; 8,000 arachnids; 4,261 vertebrates (including 2,400 fish, 900 birds,442 mammals, 382 reptiles, and 261 amphibians); 1,600 crustaceans; 1,300 coelenterates (e.g. jellyfish, corals, and sea anemones), 755 mollusks, and 115 worms.

About 6,500 of these species by the U.S. Geological Survey’s estimate are newcomers, termed “invasive,” as they arrived after 1492. Celebrated examples include the Japanese kudzu vine in the Southeast, the Black Sea’s zebra mussel in the Great Lakes, the Southeast Asian snakehead fish in the Potomac and Chesapeake, the British starling everywhere but Canada, the Burmese pythons multiplying in the Everglades, the Argentine ants crawling up the California coast, and the very recent arrivals of “murder hornets” and Joro spider from Japan and Korea. Together they are said to cause roughly $20 billion in annual damage to the U.S. economy; the United States Geological Survey (USGS) believes that the “current annual environmental, economic, and health-related costs of invasive species exceed those of all other natural disasters combined.”

What, if anything, can be done about this? “Prevention” options are ideal, including laws banning deliberate introduction of alien species; inspection, sterilization, and quarantine rules at seaports and air terminals; and regulations requiring ships arriving from overseas to dump ballast water in mid-ocean and exchange it for sterile water as to prevent further introductions of shallow-water mollusks, worms, and crustaceans to new habitats.  Attempts to extirpate the invaders after arrival, though, are at best partial defenses and sometimes hopeless; the U.S. Geological Survey sadly says that “the odds of eradicating an introduced population of reptiles once it has spread across a large area are very low,” and the worms are another example, as they advance, a foot or two every month, further into the northern woods.

* Per the National Wildlife Federation, “Earthworms are hermaphrodites, meaning an individual worm has both male and female reproductive organs.”
** Drawn by two 18th-century surveyors, Charles Mason and Jerry Dixon, to mark Pennsylvania’s border with Maryland and West Virginia.

 

FURTHER READING

The U.S. Government invasive species gateway.

In Hawaii, 282 of 1,100 native species are threatened or endangered. Hawaii’s Invasive Species Council cam be found here.

A global invasive species database, including a list of the top 100 invasive-species threats worldwide.

For an international comparison, New Zealand’s quarantine system.

At sea: The International Maritime Bureau explains the International Ballast Convention, an agreement meant to prevent transcontinental movements of shallow-water clams, shrimp, mussels, fish, and other animals via ballast-water, which entered into force in 2017.

Damages: A French survey tries to estimate the cost of invasive species worldwide, reviewing 1,900 local estimates to arrive at a guess at $1.3 trillion worldwide since 1970; annual costs have steadily escalated to about $167 billion per year as of 2017. The most costly invasions are those of malarial mosquitoes, rats, cats, fire ants, and termites.

And some invaders, with estimated dates of entry

Spiders (2013): A University of Georgia release on the Joro spider, full of gleefully mock-reassuring innuendo (they are “relatively harmless to people,” and “their fangs are often not large enough to break human skin”).

Worms (~1600): Detail from the University of Minnesota on worms and the northern forest:

The non-native worms consume the duff (leaf litter) layer of forest floors as they eat their way across the continent’s forests from thousands of points of introduction, initially by European settlers and more recently by their use as live fishing bait. The worms alter the physical and chemical properties of soils, changing the pH, nutrient and water cycles, and disrupting symbiotic relationships between soil fungi and roots (mycorrhizas).  The earthworms also amplify the negative effects of droughts, warming climate, and deer grazing on native plants, [UMinn Research Associate Lee] Frelich said.  “Many native plant species, such as trillium and native orchids, cannot thrive under these changed circumstances.”  Conversely, the worms literally prepare the soil for non-native plants from Europe, which are co-evolved with the earthworms on their home continent, including buckthorn, garlic mustard, Japanese barberry [ed. – obviously not a ”European” plant, but still an invader], tatarian honeysuckle, and hedge nettle.

The U. of Minn. reports on earthworm risk and damage to northern forests.

Birds (1890): The starling was introduced by Gilded Age New Yorker Eugene Schieffelin, a pharmaceutical magnate and Bronx Zoo donor, who brought a flock of about 120 birds from England in 1890 as part of a scheme to introduce all of the 64 bird species found in the plays of William Shakespeare to Central Park.  Most of his skylarks, thrushes, and so forth died off.  Starlings thrived, to the detriment of local bluebirds and woodpeckers; Schieffelin’s original cageful has grown to 200 million across North America. Smithsonian Magazine explains here.

Snakes (1942 for the brown tree snake in Guam, ~1980 for the Burmese python in the Everglades): The brown tree snake, native to the Solomon Islands, was accidentally introduced to Guam during World War II, apparently in the wheel wells of military aircraft. Within fifty years it had wiped out 10 of Guam’s 13 native birds, 2 of its 3 mammals, and 6 of its 12 lizards. USGS comment:

The impacts of these introduced species, and particularly the brown Treesnake, are so severe that they have been compared to and found to have more lasting effects on the ecological diversity of an island ecosystem than did the naval bombardment and leveling of forests that occurred on Guam during World War II. 

Burmese pythons are a more recent migrant, first found in the Everglades in the mid-1980s, and now number “in the tens of thousands.” The U.S. Geological Survey notes that Florida is home to 53 invasive reptiles, and says “the odds of eradicating an introduced population of reptiles once it has spread across a large area are very low.”

The USGS on invasive reptiles.

A more optimistic take from National Geographic, as the pythons find a foe in the egg-eating native bobcat.

 

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007).  He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

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PPI Report Urges a Better Pandemic Preparedness Infrastructure Now, Ahead of Future Pandemics 

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new paper today urging lawmakers to invest in better pandemic preparedness infrastructure ahead of the next global pandemic. While legislation has been introduced in Congress, it has not yet been approved. Legislation should address the needed domestic manufacturing, data collection, and whole-of-government response another pandemic would require. The report is titled, “COVID-19 retrospective: What have we learned and how can we better prepare for future pandemics?” and is authored by Arielle Kane, Director of Health Care for the Progressive Policy Institute. 

The legislation lawmakers have introduced to address the weaknesses in the United States’ pandemic preparedness is a good first step. The U.S. needs more resilient infrastructure, nimble manufacturing, and much faster responding government. The government needs to plan strategically to prepare for the next pandemic rather than just reacting to COVID-19. With so much uncertainty surrounding pandemics, it will be paramount that the government works to partner with industry to be more agile in evolving situations,” writes report author Arielle Kane. “The next pandemic is unlikely to look like COVID-19. This is why it is important that the government invest in strategies and infrastructure that will allow for a more nimble response.

The Progressive Policy Institute’s report looks back at the U.S. response to COVID-19, examining the shortcomings and successes of the national response. It also provides a series of six recommendations policymakers can take now to help the U.S. be better prepared and more resilient to pandemic, health, or biological threats in the future. These recommendations include: Better communication and coordination across government; bolstering U.S. supply chain manufacturing; improving data infrastructure; investing in R&D and pandemic preparedness; supporting broader population health; and developing infrastructure that includes genomic surveillance, like wastewater and air quality testing.

Read the full report here:

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.

Follow the Progressive Policy Institute.

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COVID-19 Retrospective: What have we learned and how can we better prepare for future pandemics?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

While the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet in our rear-view mirror, the worst seems to be behind us. It’s not too soon to examine the U.S. policy response to this unprecedented public health emergency — both its successes and failures — so that our country will be better prepared to face similar challenges in the future. The U.S. is closing in on one million COVID-19 deaths since February 2020. COVID-19 is now the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer.

When looking at deaths per capita, the U.S. is on par with Poland and Armenia rather than its fellow economic powerhouses like Germany and the United Kingdom, and far behind countries like Australia that took aggressive COVID-19
mitigation measures. Compared to 29 other high-income countries, the U.S. experienced the largest decline in life expectancy. Here, it fell by two years — the largest decline since the data was first collected in 1933.

In response, federal lawmakers have proposed creating an independent task force to review the U.S. response to “fully recognize the lessons of this pandemic,” according to bill sponsor Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.). This paper seeks to contribute to this important inquiry by assessing how the United States responded to the pandemic, examining both our failures and our successes. One note of caution: As essential as this retrospective examination is, it is equally important to underscore that the next pandemic may take a very different form. Instead of planning to win the last war, our national authorities should invest in overall preparedness and resilience against crises we can’t predict.

READ THE FULL REPORT 

Mandel for RealClearPolicy: Why Tech & Broadband Prices Have Avoided Surging Inflation

By Michael Mandel 

President Joe Biden rightfully focused the economic portion of his State of the Union address on jobs, inflation, and the need to boost investment at home. He rightfully claimed credit for more than 6 million jobs generated on his watch, and the steps his Administration is taking to cut costs for Americans.

But inexplicably, Biden did not cite some real economic success stories. On the job front, the most consistent job creator since the pandemic started has been the digital sector, with employment in the tech, broadband and ecommerce industries up by 1 million jobs since January 2020.

And even as prices for traditional goods like energy and autos have skyrocketed, digital economy inflation has remained almost non-existent. Two examples: the price of internet access services fell 1.3% in the year ending January 2022, according to the latest producer price report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released February 15. And the price of data processing fell by 0.3% over the same stretch.

Meanwhile the overall consumer price index rose by 7.5% over the same stretch. The producer price index for final demand rose by 9.7%.

This lack of inflation in the tech, broadband and ecommerce worlds is a stunning phenomenon that deserves a lot more attention from the White House, which is debating internally whether to blame rising prices on corporate greed. Why are these digital companies holding the line on inflation — at least so far — when old-line industries are bingeing on double-digit price increases? After all, consumers can spend their dollars on digital goods and services just as easily as traditional goods, especially during the era of Covid-19.

Read the full piece in RealClearPolicy.

Gresser for the Wall Street Journal: I’ll Tax Your Feet

By Ed Gresser

If you get irate over income or property taxes, don’t look down at your feet. You’ll feel worse if you do, because the costs that go into many Americans’ shoes contain the country’s most unfair taxes.

The American tariff system rarely draws attention. The Trump-era tariffs on metals and Chinese goods were unusual. They were hotly debated, drew foreign retaliation, and raised prices on many consumer goods and industrial inputs.

Those who investigate the permanent tariff system find a few predictable things: Tariffs are an inefficient form of tax that enable price increases without increasing supply or affecting demand, and they are a relatively small revenue source for the U.S. at about $85 billion in 2021. But they also find something both startling and grating: Tariffs are easily the most regressive of all U.S. taxes, forcing the poor to pay more than anyone else.

This is because permanent U.S. tariffs mostly tax a few basic household goods. Clothes, shoes, silverware, dinner plates and drinking glasses account for about 6% of imports, but (excluding the Trump tariffs) raise about half of all tariff revenue. This is because tariff rates on these products, which have hardly changed since the 1960s, average about 11%—compared with the 0.7% average for other goods.

Read the full piece in the Wall Street Journal

Biden Administration Rule Could Irreparably Harm Charter Schools Across the Country, Warns New Report from PPI’s Reinventing America’s Schools Project 

Today, the Progressive Policy Institute’s Reinventing America’s Schools (RAS) Project released a new report with a dire message to the Biden Administration and parents across the country: If the Department of Education’s proposed regulations on charter schools are adopted as drafted , it will be difficult — if not impossible — for charter schools to qualify for federal start-up grants under the Department’s Charter School Program (“CSP”). As a result, thousands of children and families will be denied high-quality, innovative education options. The report, “A Bureaucratic Plan to Disempower Parents,” is authored by Will Marshall, President of PPI, and Tressa Pankovits, Co-Director of PPI’s Reinventing America’s Schools Project.

“The proposed rules, if adopted, will inevitably stall the growth of charter and other autonomous, innovative public schools desired by communities with urgent academic needs,” write Marshall and Pankovits. “We urge the White House to intervene to stop the Department of Education’s bureaucratic attack on the federal CSP and, by extension, on parents who wish to choose the public schools that best fit their children’s needs. This is not the time for progressives to defend the educational status quo and turn their back on Black and Hispanic and low-income parents who have long been shortchanged by our legacy school system. Instead, President Biden and the Democrats should pick up where Presidents Clinton and Obama left off, by championing public school innovation and modernization,” they continue.

The CSP is a hallmark of the Clinton Administration. It has been supported by every administration since, with the Obama Administration greatly expanding its innovation school improvement goals. Created in 1994, the CSP provides federal funding to state education agencies (SE) and nonprofit education organizations to encourage the development and continuous refinement of new models for public schools. CSP start-up grants have been a critical catalyst of America’s public school choice movement. More than half of today’s charter schools have received a grant. This has made high-quality public schools available to millions of low-income and minority families whose children are too often consigned to low-performing schools. Nationwide, charter schools are in high demand, often with long waiting lists. Public charter school enrollment increased by nearly a quarter of a million students during the pandemic.

Read the report here:

 

The Reinventing America’s Schools Project inspires a 21st century model of public education geared to the knowledge economy. Two models, public charter schools and public innovation schools, are showing the way by providing autonomy for schools, accountability for results, and parental choice among schools tailored to the diverse learning styles of children. The project is co-led by Curtis Valentine and Tressa Pankovits.

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.

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Media Contact: Aaron White; awhite@ppionline.org

A Bureaucratic Plan to Disempower Parents

INTRODUCTION

The Executive Branch of the United States government has scores of departments and agencies employing about 1.8 million civilians. Given its sprawling size, it’s not surprising that the right hand doesn’t always know what the left hand is doing.

Let’s hope that’s the case with an arcane set of rules newly proposed by U.S. Department of Education (ED). Unless the White House intervenes to block or fix them, the rules would make it harder for parents to choose high-quality public schools for their children. They would also undermine the progressive school reforms championed by the previous two Democratic presidents.

The target of this bureaucratic sabotage is one of President Bill Clinton’s signature policy innovations, the Federal Charter School Program (CSP). Created in 1994, the CSP provides federal funding to state education agencies (SE) and nonprofit education organizations to encourage the development and continuous refinement of new models for public schools. CSP start-up grants have been a critical catalyst of America’s public school choice movement, which has made high-quality public schools available to millions of low-income and minority families whose children are too often consigned to low-performing schools.

The next Democratic president, Barack Obama, continued and built creatively upon Clinton’s modernizing reforms. His $4 billion “Race to the Top” initiative spurred a competition among states to devise plans for adopting higher standards, improving teacher quality, collecting performance data to help schools and parents measure their students’ progress, and turning around failing schools.

During his 2020 campaign, however, President Biden stepped back from his predecessors’ commitment to providing national encouragement to state and local efforts to reinvent K-12 education. He called for eliminating federal funding for charter schools that contract with for-profit external management organizations (EMO). Only 9.1% of the nation’s roughly 7,500 charter schools are run by for-profit companies; the remaining 90% are stand-alone self-operating schools or are run by non-profit groups.

ED’s proposed rules would indeed make it difficult – if not impossible – for schools administered entirely or “substantially” by for-profit companies to get federal start-up grants under CSP. But they go further, imposing onerous and unreasonable requirements on all non-profit charter school models as well. So unprecedented are the proposed changes that if they had been enacted earlier, some public charter schools ED named “blue ribbon schools” – the nation’s best – would have been excluded from its grant competition. Minneapolis’ Friendship Academy of the Arts, which is 98% minority, is an example of a public charter school that would fail to meet the expectation of the new diversity language in ED’s proposed regulation.

The timing of the proposed rule changes is also odd. They will likely delay Fiscal Year 2022 CSP awards, as the annual competition is already behind schedule. What’s more, ED published the proposed rules on March 14, 2022 and has set an April 13, 2022 deadline for public comments – a very brief window considering what’s at stake for millions of U.S. families whose children attend schools of choice.

From a political perspective, the timing of these proposals also couldn’t be worse.[7] Many parents in the U.S. are dissatisfied with the way their children’s public schools have performed during the COVID-19 pandemic. They are frustrated by lengthy shutdowns[9] and learning losses, by political wrangling over vaccines and mask mandates, and by unresponsive central school bureaucracies and teachers’ unions that didn’t seem responsive to their concerns.

During the pandemic, enrollment in traditional public district schools has fallen. But enrollment in public charter schools has risen, a sign that parents want the power to choose among a wider array of quality school options.

Amid mounting public pressure for systemic change in K-12 schools, defending the educational status quo hardly seems like a progressive response. Worse, ED’s proposed rules would roll back previous Administrations’ progress toward modernizing a legacy school system created more than a century ago to serve the needs of a then-rapidly industrializing nation.

Thanks to pioneering efforts by state and local school reformers – mostly Democrats – a new model for 21st Century schools is emerging. It is built upon four pillars: expanding parental choice, shifting decision-making power from central bureaucracies to autonomous school leaders, delivering more personalized learning to students rather than one-size-fits-all instruction, and real consequences for failing to lift all students’ performance.

So far, the main beneficiaries of this new model are parents of color in low-income communities who can’t pick up and move to the suburbs if their local district schools don’t make the grade. In cities such as New Orleans, Washington, D.C., Denver, Indianapolis, New York and Newark, public charter schools, innovation schools, partnership schools and other non-traditional schools have produced dramatic gains in student learning in impoverished communities. As a matter of civil rights and social justice, the Biden Administration should stand with low-income and minority parents who are demanding an end to second-class schools for their children. Instead, ED’s proposed rules seem designed to protect the interests of adults employed in local school districts at the expense of the children and their parents.

ED’S PROPOSED RULES

ED’s new rules– “Proposed Priorities, Requirements, Definitions, and Selection Criteria Expanding Opportunity Through Quality Charter Schools Program (CSP)-Grants” — would make it more difficult for charter school start-ups to get federal support. For nearly three decades those funds have served a critical need. Public charter schools, unlike traditional schools, do not have taxing authority to issue bonds to establish or increase the number of local school seats. Federal grants under CSP average about $500,000. At least half of today’s charter schools have received one.

The rules impose a raft of new requirements on applicants for federal grants to state education agencies, charter school management organizations, and grants to groups seeking to organize new charter schools. The rationale for the changes, according to ED, are as follows:
              • To eliminate federal support for for-profit management contracts, which ED contends is necessary to ensure fiscal transparency and accountability.
  • To encourage independent public charter schools to enter into new “partnerships” with central school districts.
  • To ensure charter schools are racially and socioeconomically diverse.
  • To require charter applicants to submit “community impact” analyses.

 

ENDING GRANTS FOR-PROFIT MANAGEMENT SERVICES 
Charter school opponents invariably cast a nefarious light on schools that seek to increase their capacities by obtaining academic, financial, human, facility and organizational resources from for-profit specialists in those fields. However, creating and sustaining a successful charter school is a complex undertaking, requiring skills, knowledge and capacities in many different areas. As such, private companies can provide small charter schools with economies of scale in managing payroll, back office, and other services.
Because they are public schools, all charters are free, publicly funded and subject to financial oversight from authorizing boards that are answerable to public authorities. The quality of that oversight varies from state-to-state depending on the competence and diligence of the authorizing boards states have empowered by statute. When financial abuses or malfeasance occurs, it is the board’s responsibility to take action.
Such problems are by no means confined to for-profit charters or those that contract with for-profit companies for some, or all, of their administrative functions. It’s not hard to find examples of nonprofit charters that have gone under or have been shut down as a result of financial mismanagement or misuse of public funds. In fact, without proper oversight, even traditional public schools can be felled by corruption.
No surprise, then, that rogue for-profit actors prey on weak authorizers, seeking to take over failing schools and keep them limping along while they collect public funds. But rigorous local oversight is the best answer to financial mismanagement or profiteering. A strong authorizer, such as Washington D.C.’s Public Charter School Board, moves quickly to close schools that mismanage public funds. It also can and has refused to grant charters to private companies with bad financial and academic track records.
And, there are signs that other places are taking concrete steps to reign in wrong doers. In Utah, the State Charter School Board (SCSB), which is responsible for the compliance of 91% of the charter schools in Utah, has issued a record number of “letters of concern” and warnings to administrators this year, letting them know they are being closely watched and that expectations have increased. The state is responding to the high profile scandal that led to the closure of the American International School in June of 2019. The director of the SCSB, Jennifer Lambert says, “It’s not that it isn’t that charter schools are suddenly performing poorly… it’s that the board is being more proactive to help keep these schools in line with rules and regulations.”
Nonetheless, the Biden Administration evidently believes the federal government should deny start-up grants to schools even “substantially” run by private companies. The Administration’s purported main target is charter management organizations with “sweeps” contracts, which are arrangements in which the management company completely runs the school and also receives most of the school revenue. These have the greatest potential for abuse, because the entire school can collapse if the management company runs afoul of rules and regulations.
Even so, we’re skeptical of ED’s argument for usurping the function of local authorizing boards and empowering a remote federal agency to act, in effect, as a “second authorizer” for charter schools. A better solution would be to invest more in raising the quality and rigor of charter authorizing boards.
Our skepticism extends to ED’s failure to define “substantially” for future applicants. Many public charter schools, just like their district counterparts, contract out some administrative and operational responsibilities to private companies, while others purchase a variety of goods and services — transportation, technical supports, cafeteria services, professional development, facility maintenance, and so on — from for-profit businesses. Without a well-defined federal standard, it is difficult for CSP applicants to understand where ED will draw the “substantially” line. Leaving that definition to state education agencies is likely to create an uneven and confusing welter of rules for those seeking to open charter schools.
REGULATORY OVERREACH
Our main concern, however, is for the 90% of public charter schools operated by nonprofit boards and CMOs. ED’s proposed rules would subject them to unprecedented federal micromanagement.
State law and local policy – not federal regulations – have always determined the conditions under which America’s public schools open and operate. At present, ED awards CSP grants to nonprofit developers with a charter approved by a state sanctioned charter authorizer, and to departments of education (SE) that then disburse funds to sub-grantees seeking to open or expand local charter schools in accordance with varying state laws.
ED’s proposed regulations, however, would in effect override the authority of state laws. They would force SE grantees to require charter school applicants to comply with new, non-statutory federal rules in order to qualify for start-up grants. This in effect would make the federal agency a national school board supervening the decisions of charter school authorizers.
A host of new ED mandates will doubtless balloon CSP grant applications to thousands of pages. The department conservatively estimates that the new requirements will add a minimum of 60 additional hours to complete, over the current application requirements. It further estimates the total estimated burden created by the proposed regulations would be 21,900 annual hours at a cost of $2.1 million per year. While large CMOs experienced with CSP applications might absorb the additional burden of time and money, the new regulations would likely mean prohibitively high transaction and compliance costs for the vast majority of charter schools that are organized and run by small groups of educators and parents, many in low-income communities.

 

MANDATING “PARTNERSHIPS” WITH DISTRICTS 
In addition to public charter schools, which are autonomous and free of central district control, some states and cities have created semi-autonomous schools of choice variously called innovation schools, renaissance schools, iZone schools, 1882 schools, and other names. Like charters, they compete for students with traditional district schools.
As the Progressive Policy Institute has documented, the competition gives parents a wider choice of public schools for their kids, while also putting pressure on traditional district schools to improve their performance.
A key to the superior performance of these schools of choice is their ability to make key decisions on-site and operate nimbly, because they aren’t constrained by the central school district’s top-down rules and restrictive union contracts.
Another key to such autonomous or semiautonomous schools’ success is that they are voluntary partnerships, meaning that there is “buy in” from both partners – the district and the school operator. The voluntary nature of the relationship ensures they equally commit to ensuring the arrangement produces good outcomes for students.
However, ED would now mandate that all charter schools partner with local districts if grant applicants want to receive “priority points” for funding in federal CSP competitions. But the “partnership” ED envisions evidently is strictly one-way, since it imposes no such obligation on school boards and district leaders. But the “partnership” ED envisions evidently is strictly one-way, since it imposes no such obligation on school boards and district leaders.
Down on the ground, many school districts resent competition from charters, which they see as luring away “their” students. Compelling charters to partner with often hostile school districts or risking losing access to federal funding would compromise the independence and autonomy that makes them work. This is a longtime goal of the change-averse K-12 establishment and teachers unions, but it has nothing to do with the CSP’s mission: increasing the number of high-quality public schools available to low-income and minority families whose children are too often “zoned” into low-performing neighborhood schools.

 

AN IMPOSSIBLE “DIVERSITY” MANDATE
Similarly disingenuous is ED’s proposed requirement that charter and independent public schools meet a uniform standard for “diversity” that doesn’t take into account America’s demographic and geographic realities.
PPI wholeheartedly believes that children of different races, creeds, cultures and socio-economic background should learn together. In practice, because schools of choice have made their deepest inroads in America’s major urban centers, they often serve disproportionately low-income and minority students.
All CSP applicants already have to demonstrate to ED how they will maintain racially diverse student and staff populations. The department’s current practice “prioritizes” (awards extra points) to grant competitors who use school models that are diverse-by-design. The proposed rules essentially change ED’s “priority” to a top-down “mandate.”
This has enormous potential to harm urban students and indigenous populations. Notwithstanding vigorous enforcement of federal civil rights laws over the past 60 years, too many urban school districts have continuously failed low-income, African American, and Hispanic families. Charter schools are helping to change that baleful tradition, and it isn’t fair to put the burden of reversing centuries of residential segregation entirely on them. Should their students be punished because charters operate in communities that don’t have enough white students or because their schools don’t have enough white teachers? Our answer is a resounding “No.”
A TENDENTIOUS “COMMUNITY IMPACT” STANDARD
Perhaps the most egregious of the ED proposals is one that would give federal grant reviewers the power to override state and local decisions to authorize schools in the name of “community impact.” This vague standard is transparently intended to protect school districts from losing students and public dollars when parents choose to enroll their children in charter schools. It apparently rests on the spurious assumption that charters create too much school capacity in communities where district schools have enough seats for all children that live there. Omitted from this zero-sum logic is any consideration of the quality of district schools.
Under the new rule, charter applicants would have to demonstrate “sufficient demand” for new school seats, rather than simply letting parents choose between charter and district schools. Specifically, an applicant must “show evidence that the number of charter schools proposed to be opened, replicated or expanded. . . must not exceed the number of public schools needed to accommodate the demand in the community.”
Charter schools were never conceived to be temporary classroom trailers waiting to catch traditional schools’ overflow population.
Nor do parents typically choose public charters for their children because of overcrowding. Parents choose them because they believe they are a better fit for their children, offer higher quality instruction and outcomes, are safer, or are more culturally affirming.
ED’s criteria for this proposed regulation center make it clear that its chief concern is not a quality education for all students, but the fiscal health of traditional school districts, and preserving their monopoly on public schools to protect their staffing models. At a time when enrollment in traditional district schools is falling, this regulation aims at stopping the growth of charter school enrollment. With long charter school waiting lists — around 50,000 children in New York City alone, for example — this is no time for the U.S. government to be turning its back on America’s neediest families.
CONCLUSION

What is most striking about ED’s proposed rules is their evident unconcern for making our public schools better, and for making sure all students have equal access to good schools. Parents frustrated by their interactions with their schools during the pandemic also are demanding a more transparent, accountable and responsive public education system. ED’s push to load scores of new regulations and mandates onto CSP applicants points is fundamentally out of touch with the public’s growing interest in systemic change.

The proposed rules, if adopted, inevitably will stall the growth of charter and other kinds of innovative public schools springing up in communities where they are urgently needed. We urge the White House to intervene to stop ED’s bureaucratic attack on the federal CSP and, by extension, on parents who want to be able to choose the public schools that best fit their children’s needs.

This is not the time for progressives to defend the educational status quo and turn their back on Black and Hispanic and low-income parents who have long been shortchanged by our legacy school system.

Instead, President Biden and the Democrats should pick up where Presidents Clinton and Obama left off, by championing public school innovation and modernization.

DOWNLOAD AND READ THE FULL REPORT:

 

PPI’s Response to Biden Administration’s DOJ Endorsement of Anti-Tech Antitrust Bills

While we’re generally big fans of the Biden Administration, Biden’s Department of Justice (DOJ) has made a big misstep by sending a letter endorsing proposed tech antitrust legislation in the House and Senate.

Four key reasons:

First, these bills are not ready for prime time. They need more interagency review, beyond the opinion of the DOJ’s acting assistant attorney general for legislative affairs. In particular, there are major cybersecurity concerns, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the rest of the Department of Homeland Security needs to weigh in.

Second, the Senate should have the chance to act first. The DOJ shouldn’t be encouraging the House to vote on a bill that has no chance of passing the Senate.

Third, these bills would make inflation worse at just the wrong time. At a time when Americans are oppressed by soaring prices, inflation in the digital sector is running at only a 1% pace. Forced break-ups will eliminate economies of scale and almost inevitably drive up prices.

Fourth, the digital sector, led by the big tech companies, is outperforming the rest of the economy on just about every dimension that consumers and workers care about.

 

  • The tech/ecommerce sector has added 1 million jobs since the pandemic started, while the rest of the economy has lost 3 million jobs. Many of these new jobs are in political swing states.
  • Biden identified the need for more investment in his State of the Union Speech. Many old-line companies—in particular, energy and auto companies– cut back on capital spending during 2020 and 2021, while enterprises in the tech, telecom and ecommerce sectors kept investing at the same or higher rates.
  • The big tech companies are helping boost American competitiveness by spending on research in key areas like artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

 

Given all the real problems in the economy, PPI believes that it is remarkably counterproductive to go after the companies that are benefiting consumers and workers.

PPI’s Trade Fact of the Week: By country count, the African Continental Free Trade Area (launched 2021) is the world’s largest FTA

FACT:

By country count, the African Continental Free Trade Area (launched 2021) is the world’s largest FTA.

 

THE NUMBERS: 

African exports*, 2021 –

To world:                    $500 billion
To Asia:                       $158 billion
To western Europe:    $160 billion
Intra-African:                $88 billion
To U.S. & Canada         $30 billion

* International Monetary Fund, Direction of Trade Statistics 2021

 

WHAT THEY MEAN: 

Reflecting on the maritime past of East Africa and the Indian Ocean littoral in his Dhow Cultures of the Indian Ocean (2010), Tanzanian historian Abdul Sheriff offers an emotional appreciation of open societies and of trade as a way to share goods, ideas, and values across cultures:

“Commerce necessarily demands exchange of goods and ideas among peoples of different ecologies, cultures and religions … [T]he movement of people, the routes they follow, and the relationships they forge create unities in human history.  … Mercantile communities are necessarily open societies … [whose] cosmopolitan culture is made up of elements of diverse provenance, and while this does not automatically add up to a harmonious blend, it is remarkably tolerant toward other religions, cultures, and behaviors.”

The contemporary “African Continental Free Trade Area” (AfCFTA) is in concept an effort to create such a unity, and in practical terms an attempt to at least partially solve some persistent challenges to African growth and development: Why does so little trade go on within Africa, in comparison to Europe, Asia, or the Western Hemisphere? (South African think-tank TRALAC estimates that 17% of Africa’s trade is “intra-regional”, as opposed to over 60% for Europe and Asia, and about 46% for the Western Hemisphere.). And, relatedly, how can Africa reduce its reliance on exports of primary resources to Europe, Asia, and North America, and raise its ability to produce and sell manufactures, services, and farm products?

Launched in 2018 and signed in 2020, AfCFTA now applies in 41 of 55* countries in Africa, with a combined population of 1.1 billion. These figures make it the largest free trade agreement, by country membership in the world (assuming one doesn’t consider the 164-member WTO as such a group), and second to Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership as the largest by population. Its elimination of a planned-for/hoped-for 97% of tariffs on intra-African trade began a year ago; participants continue to talk about approaches to services, intellectual property rules, trade facilitation and “non-tariff barriers” such as customs transparency, technical standards notification, and other challenges that are often more costly than tariffs.

While many such questions remain open, an enthusiastic World Bank study projects an extra $450 billion in continental income by 2035, with 30 million people escaping poverty, Africa’s export trade shifting a bit away from energy and metal ores to manufactured goods, and African wages rising by about 10%. Side effects include raising U.S. exports to Africa by about $12 billion in manufacturing and $2 billion in agriculture (as African growth rates and incomes rise and allow for more imports), and $10 billion in services such as education, health, and logistics; rising competitiveness vis-à-vis other regions would push up African exports to the U.S. by about $16 billion.

Economic modeling and implementation challenges aside, AfCFTA is both a detailed program for Africa’s economic future and a remarkable commitment to swim against a bleak 2020s intellectual tide, in which visions of open societies are under great pressure, governments trust each other less than in the past, and publics perhaps more likely to believe that one country’s success may require another’s loss. As such it seems not only a visionary idea, but a good example for a world that needs one just now.

* State Department count is 54 countries, including 49 in sub-Saharan Africa and 5 in North Africa. The AfCFTA’s 55 include the disputed Western Sahara.

FURTHER READING

 

Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo at the AfCFTA Secretariat opening in 2020.

South Africa’s TRALAC (Trade Law Centre) tracks AfCFTA implementation and policy debates.

… and has a startling graphic on the cost non-tariff barriers impose on intra-African trade.

UNCTAD has a supporting website offering opportunities to report and publicize non-tariff barriers in Africa.

statistical take from the World Bank.

And African Development Bank Chief Economist Kevin Urama on AfCFTA outlook and potential implementation challenges, 2020.

 

U.S. Policy

U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai reviews the U.S.-Africa relationship, and applauds AfCFTA, the 2021 AGOA* Ministerial.

* “AGOA” referring to the “African Growth and Opportunity Act,” a program launched in 2000 which waives tariffs on nearly all goods from participating African countries (subject to a set of eligibility criteria), accompanied by a regular series of Summits, Ministerial meetings, business/civil society dialogues, and technical assistance programs. 

And still current though a bit further back, the Obama administration’s 2016 “Beyond AGOA” report — the last major U.S. policy document on the U.S.-Africa economic relationship — points to urban demographics, falling poverty rates, and accelerating technological connectivity as core trends suggesting an African economic boom in the later 2020s and the 2030s. Statistics since 2016 underline the report’s take on the data:

  • The “sub-Saharan” continental economy has grown from $1.5 trillion to $2.1 trillion.
  • Africa’s urban population has grown by about 80 million (from 392 million to 470 million), and will approach a billion in the next decade
  • Africa’s internet-using population has likely doubled, from about 200 million to 400 million, accompanied by a six-fold increase in available bandwidth.
The report suggests a need for a more differentiated U.S. approach to Africa, in which tariff waivers are accompanied by reciprocal agreements, and a deeper African engagement in the WTO, with particular attention to tariff bindings, trade facilitation, transparency and notification rules such as those regarding technical standards. The “Beyond AGOA” report can be found here.

 

And two big picture looks at Africa’s cosmopolitan past: 

Tanzanian scholar Abdul Sheriff’s Dhow Cultures of the Indian Ocean on East Africa, Persia, India, and Indonesia in the global economy to 1500 (with cameos from the Roman Empire,“Star Raft” navigator Zheng He, and Portuguese explorer/buccaneer Vasco da Gama), with reflections on the nature of maritime and mercantile societies.

And Francois Xavier-Fauvelle’s The Golden Rhinoceros: Histories of the African Middle Ages has a series of snapshots — drawn from Nubian state correspondence, a coral house on Kenya’ Indian Ocean coast, a Saharan salt mine, an Arab account of the Malian court, the small gold statue of a rhinoceros from Great Zimbabwe — on long-ago government, trade and diplomacy in the Sahel, Ethiopia, and the East African coast.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007).  He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week

PPI Statement on President Biden’s FY 2023 Budget Proposal

Ben Ritz, Director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s Center for Funding America’s Future, released the following statement on President Biden’s new budget proposal:

“The Progressive Policy Institute applauds President Biden for proposing a budget that calls for $1 trillion of deficit reduction over the next decade. After a year in which loose fiscal policy contributed to inflation rising to its highest levels in over 40 years, it’s essential that Congress uses its power of the purse to complement the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting efforts.

“However, it remains unclear if the specific package of policies proposed in the President’s budget would achieve his stated objective. Several major provisions are unscored or have their scores bundled together in a couple of opaque line items. There is also no attempt to focus this package on a few core policies that could get a majority in the Senate after it became clear last year that the whole Build Back Better framework could not.

“Thus, it falls upon Democrats in Congress to fill in the blanks. PPI urges lawmakers to pass an energy security and inflation control bill that meets the President’s stated goal of reducing deficits by $1 trillion without relying on budget gimmicks and funds smart investments in clean energy to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels produced by foreign adversaries like Russia.

“We also believe that the new revenue proposals included in this budget merit debate and consideration. But it is unlikely most of these policies could be sufficiently vetted and refined in time for inclusion in a reconciliation bill before the midterm elections. The focus now must be on policies that can pass before the August recess.

“Democrats cannot afford to let the perfect be the enemy of the good. It’s long past time for lawmakers to figure out what sustainable, disinflationary fiscal policies can get majority support in both chambers and send them to President Biden’s desk for his signature.”

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.

Launched in 2018, PPI’s Center for Funding America’s Future  works to promote a fiscally responsible public investment agenda that fosters robust and inclusive economic growth. We tackle issues of public finance in the United States and offer innovative proposals to strengthen public investments in the foundation of our economy, modernize health and retirement programs to reflect an aging society, and transform our tax code to reward work over wealth.

Follow the Progressive Policy Institute.

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Media Contact: Aaron White – awhite@ppionline.org

 

Marshall for The Hill: How Putin’s war weakens Russia

By Will Marshall, President of PPI

Russian invaders are still dealing out death and destruction in Ukraine, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has already suffered an enormous political defeat. The main question now isn’t whether Putin will win his war, but how many more Ukrainians will have to die to give him a face-saving way to stop this senseless slaughter.

No matter how the fighting ends, the Ukrainian people have shown that they will never willingly submit to rule by Moscow. Putin’s ham-fisted attempt to bend a former Russian colony to his will has turned into Ukraine’s war of independence, with President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, cast improbably in the role of George Washington.

Of course, Russia has by far the stronger military and evidently no moral compunctions about using it to massacre Ukrainian civilians. Can Putin inflict enough pain on Ukrainian society to wring big concessions from its government? Possibly, but so far Ukraine’s defenders are more than holding their own.

The Russian dictator is caught in his own web of historical delusions and disinformation. Few outside Russia believe his ludicrous claims that Ukraine’s democratically elected leaders are “fascists” scheming with America to prevent Ukrainians from voluntarily reuniting with Mother Russia. Yet in launching his second invasion in eight years, Putin seems to have expected that his forces would easily topple Zelensky’s government, allowing him to install a more compliant regime in Kyiv.

Read the full piece in The Hill.