Earlier this year, 31 House Republicans released a proposal to replace virtually all federal taxes with a 30% national sales tax. As other analysts have noted, a sales tax would be easy for companies to dodge and difficult for the government to enforce — meaning that to avoid revenue losses, the proposal would require a significantly higher tax rate, possibly as high as 60%.
The bill has also been criticized for being regressive. In tax terminology, a tax is “regressive” if it takes a higher share of income from the poor than from the rich; “flat” or “proportional” if it takes the same share of income from everybody; and “progressive” if it takes a higher share from the rich than from the poor.
The Republicans’ overall bill is certainly regressive and should be rejected on that account. But its core idea — taxing consumption rather than income — is not inherently regressive if properly designed. Much public commentary has mistakenly concluded that a national sales tax would fall predominantly on low-income Americans. But as this analysis demonstrates, taxes on spending fall on everyone roughly equally, and certain elements of the Fair Tax — such as its universal child payments — are actually progressive. While the Fair Tax ought to be rejected due to its regressive tax cuts and poor enforceability, two elements of it are worth keeping: its flat per-child cash payments and its emphasis on taxing spending rather than saving.
2023 marks the 15th anniversary of the creation of the App Economy, which has played a significant role in Europe’s economic growth. The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) recently released a new series of reports from Dr. Michael Mandel, Vice President and Chief Economist, and Jordan Shapiro, Director of PPI’s Innovation Frontier Project, that outline new job growth estimates created by the App Economy in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, as well as how the App Economy has provided pathways into the digital workforce for people who come from varied backgrounds.
“The App Economy has helped drive job growth in Europe for the past 15 years,” said Dr. Michael Mandel. “These positive trends seem to be continuing, and it’s important to continue to expand the digital workforce to reflect these new opportunities.”
PPI traveled to London, Paris, and Berlin to talk with federal lawmakers, local app developers, and tech policy experts about their experience working in the App Economy. In London, PPI highlighted new research that found the App Economy is responsible for 667,000 jobs in the United Kingdom as of May 2023, accounting for roughly 20% of the total net gain in U.K. jobs since 2008. Allison McGovern, MP, was the keynote speaker at the event and discussed the importance of creating economic opportunities for the United Kingdom.
In Paris, Prisca Thevenot, MP joined PPI and a panel of policy experts to discuss the digital skills needed to keep up with the growing jobs. PPI found the App Economy created 611,000 jobs in France as of May 2023, accounting for roughly 23% of the total net gain in French jobs since 2008.
PPI hosted an event in Berlin, highlighting new data that shows the App Economy is responsible for 633,000 jobs in Germany as of May 2023, accounting for roughly 13% of the total net gain in German jobs since 2008. Anke Domscheit-Berg, MP spoke on the importance of women in tech, and a panel of local app developers and senior software engineers shared their experiences with the app economy and the opportunities it has created.
As digital jobs continue to grow — like those in the App Economy — so does the demand for new digital skills. But supply for these skilled jobs continues to lag as workforce shortages persist across the tech industry. To address this issue, Taylor Maag, Director of Workforce Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute, released a new report titled “Closing the Digital Skills Gap: Unveiling Insights for Four Countries.” The report outlines the barriers confronting workers who want to acquire skills and examines four European countries’ efforts to address the digital skills divide.
Dr. Mandel released his first App Economy employment estimate for the United States in February 2012. Since then, PPI has become the leader in tracking App Economy job growth around the world, highlighting the economic importance of app-related jobs specifically and tech jobs more generally, along with the need to close the digital skill divide. Learn more about some of PPI’s recent work on the App Economy here.
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C., with offices in Brussels, Berlin and the United Kingdom. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.
FACT: The African American exporting community shrank by 34% in 2020.
THE NUMBERS: African American-owned exporting businesses* –
2021: Data not yet available
2020: 1,001
2019: 1,514
2017-20 avg. 1,380
*Census/BEA
WHAT THEY MEAN:
The Census’ annual counts of U.S. exporting businesses peak at 305,200 in 2014. Then they drift downward, to 289,400 in 2019; then comes a sheer drop to 271,705 in COVID-stricken 2020. The most recent report, for 2021, shows a modest rebound to 278,400 in 2021 as trade flows recovered. (The update for 2022 comes in January.) All the loss has come in the small-business sector. Census’ count of “large company” exporters — those with 500 or more employees — has actually risen a bit, from 6,968 in 2014 to 7,121 in 2021. The tally of very small exporters (those with fewer than 100 employees each) has meanwhile dropped by almost 10%, from 281,300 in 2014 to 255,300 in 2021. For some reason, which is not clear in the data, this drop appears to have been steepest among African-American businesses.
This insight comes from a decade-old Census/BEA statistical collaboration to provide a very detailed look at the nature of smaller exporters. For 2012, and then the years 2017-2020, the two agencies identified the ownership of about two-thirds of U.S. exporters by race and ethnicity, gender, public vs. private ownership, and veteran status. From there they proceed to find the countries where exporters find their customers; levels of employment and pay (including with comparison to non-exporters); and at least for 2017-2020 changes over time. The 2020 report, taken in the context of the 2017/2018/2019 editions shows the following about African American exporting firms:
(1) Total count, employment, and pay: Census and BEA found 1,001 African American-owned exporting businesses in 2020. As a group, they employed 49,045 workers, with a combined payroll of $1.96 billion — that is, an average of 49 people per business, at payrolls of $39,900 per worker. Their non-exporting peers, meanwhile, averaged 9 workers at payrolls of $33,191 per worker.
(2) Markets: The 1,001 firms earned about a tenth of their income from exports. (In precise terms, $1.1 billion out of $12 billion in total receipts). The European Union was their largest customer at $467 million, and bought from 358 of the companies. Canada was next at $115 million. The African American businesses were significantly more focused on African markets than other exporters: 13.8% of them, or 138 of the 1,001 in actual numbers, had African customers in 2020, as opposed to 8.4% of exporters with owners of other races and ethnicities. By country, over the most recent four years, Nigeria was their largest African market, followed by Ghana.
(3) Trends: Exporting communities of almost all ethnicities shrank in 2020, but the COVID shock seems to have hit African American exporting firms much harder than others. The 1,001 African American exporters in 2020 represents a drop of 27% from the average across 2017-2019, and 34% from the 1,514 in 2019. The count of African American exporters to Africa specifically fell especially steeply, dropping by half from 278 in 2019 to the 138 of 2020. Meanwhile, the counts of African-American exporters to China fell from 117 to 87, to Mexico from 121 to 108, and to India from 53 to 28. By comparison, BEA’s tallies of white-owned and Hispanic exporters were down about 7% from the 2017-2020 averages, and that of Asian-owned exporters by 3%. Native American exporters were an interesting exception, growing a bit in 2020 to 511 firms from an average of 452 across 2017-2019.
The reports do not indicate why, in the context of a general decline in trade during the COVID pandemic, the African American exporter group would have contracted more sharply than others. Nor do they say (since the most recent edition covers 2020*) whether their rebound in 2021 might have been stronger. Combined with Census’ total-exporter counts, though, they do seem to indicate that (a) U.S. small-business exporters have been struggling in general for nearly a decade, (b) the most recent drop hit African American exporters hardest, and (c) while government policies are never the only answer to a problem, the agencies charged with supporting SME exporters ought to be thinking about recovery options for this particular group, and probably more generally about whether their current approaches are enough.
* Census will update its total-exporters in April 2024 (with a preliminary edition in January) with 2022 figures. This will presumably help show whether the modestly higher count of 2021 was the beginning of a nearly decade-long negative trend, or just a small bounce after an unusually bad 2020. The very detailed Census/BEA studies with race/ethnicity/gender/market data for 2021 (assuming the two agencies keep doing them) would likely come out in May, with information on whether African American export businesses rebounded from the COVID shock at par with, or faster than, or slower than, their peers.
FURTHER READING:
Census/BEA’s collaborative series on the nature of exporting businesses, with data on exporters by ownership, overseas markets, export dependence levels, employment, and payroll (2020 version; go to the main page for 2017, 2018, and 2019).
… and the annual report on exporters and importers by large/medium/small size, known as “Profile of Importing and Exporting Companies,” has totals, state-by-state figures, SMEs vs. large firms for 25 countries as well as the world, etc.
A recent report from PPI in collaboration with Prosperity Now looks at the barriers facing entrepreneurs of color, and the smaller, less profitable businesses that emerge as a result.
Government Resources:
The Minority Business Development Administration (2015) looks at diversity and success in American export firms.
And the Geneva-based International Trade Center’s SME competitiveness report.
ABOUT ED
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank Progressive Economy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is drawing most of our attention right now. But there’s a second, more subtle, reorganizing of lines happening: the reimagining of Europe as a political community spurred by Ukraine’s impassioned, ideals-driven demands to join.
Very few Americans would use the word “inspiring” to describe the European Union. If we think about the EU at all, most of us share something like the dyspeptic view that prompted many Britons to want out: It’s a many-tentacled, meddlesome regulatory bureaucracy, useful in its way, perhaps, as an economic umbrella. But hardly inspirational.
But the EU looks different from Ukraine, where the idea of joining is freighted with hope and deeper meaning. In 2013, just as the Brexit debate began in London, pro-Russian Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych rescinded the country’s application for EU membership, bringing nearly a million people into the streets of Kyiv, shouting “Ukraine is Europe.” Later that winter, more than 100 protesters died for the idea. Today, polls show upward of 90 percent of Ukrainians wanting to join.
2023 marks the 15th anniversary of the creation of the App Economy, which has played a significant role in Germany’s economic growth. Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new report “The German App Economy: 2023” finding that the App Economy is responsible for 633,000 jobs in Germany as of May 2023. That accounts for roughly 13% of the total net gain in German jobs since 2008, when the Apple App Store and the Android Market, precursor to Google Play, first opened.
Report authors Michael Mandel, Vice President and Chief Economist, and Jordan Shapiro, Director of the Innovation Frontier Project, outline the new estimates of the job growth created by the App Economy, as well as how the App Economy has provided a route into the digital workforce for people who come from varied backgrounds.
“The App Economy has helped drive job growth in Germany for the past 15 years,” said Dr. Michael Mandel. “These positive trends seem to be continuing and it’s important to continue to expand the digital workforce to reflect these new opportunities.”
As digital jobs continue to grow, so does the demand for new digital skills. But supply for these skilled jobs continues to lag as workforce shortages persist across the tech industry. To address this issue, Taylor Maag, Director of Workforce Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute, released a new report titled “Closing the Digital Skills Gap: Unveiling Insights for Four Countries.” The report outlines the barriers confronting workers who want to acquire skills and examines four countries’ efforts to address the digital skill divide.
By the numbers:
● 633,000 jobs in the German App Economy, up 38% since 2019
● Across Europe and the U.S., job requirements for digital skills have increased by 50%.
On Monday evening, PPI and its Mosaic Project will host a panel event with Das Progressive Zentrum and Women Who Code Berlin celebrating the 15th anniversary of the app economy and discussing these new reports.
Read and download the “German App Economy” report here and the “Closing the Digital Skills Gap” report here.
It’s no surprise that the German automobile industry has joined the App Economy. As of May 2023, Bertrandt, a leading supplier to the auto industry, was looking for an iOS and Android App Developer in Munich to help conceive and develop next-generation mobile apps and connected car apps. Meanwhile, MBition, a Berlin-based subsidiary of the Mercedes-Benz Group, was looking for a Test Engineer for Mobile Apps Testing to help deliver the next generation of in-car infotainment software.
But the Germany App Economy is not just about automobiles. Blinkist, an app that finds impactful books and distills them down to their key ideas, was looking for a Senior iOS Engineer and an Android developer in Berlin. From manufacturing to books to health and everything between, the German App Economy includes 633,000 jobs. That’s according to the Progressive Policy Institute’s latest estimate, and it’s up 38% from our pre-pandemic 2019 estimate.
None of these jobs existed 15 years ago, when Apple first opened the App Store on July 10, 2008, in the middle of the global financial crisis. Android Market (which later became Google Play) was announced by Google shortly after. These app stores created a new route through which software developers could write programs for smartphones. These mobile applications — called “apps” — could then be distributed to the rapidly growing number of smartphone users around the world.
The jobs generated by the app stores became an important part of the recovery from the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the subsequent economic expansion, and the response to the pandemic. More than that, app development and the app stores became a key route by which young people can develop tech skills and became an integral part of the digital economy.
This report describes some important aspects of the German App Economy. We also give some examples of App Economy jobs and skills development.
Erin Delaney, Director of Health Care Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), released the following statement ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Dobbs decision:
“Marking this tragic anniversary would not be necessary if not for the relentless mobilization of Republican extremists to curtail access to abortion and reproductive freedom.
“Forcing abortion bans against the wishes of the majority of Americans chips away at the foundation of democracy. As the Democratic Party continues to fight for federal protections, they must also turn their focus to state legislatures. Democrats must win back seats and expand their majorities by appealing to Independent and Republican voters who don’t want to see their personal liberties stripped away.
“PPI will continue to fight against far-right extremism, defend abortion rights and work to expand access to comprehensive reproductive health care for all Americans.”
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.
During the worst days of Covid, when supply chains broke down for automobile production, the cost of used cars skyrocketed in response to the limited supply. Over time, car manufacturing began to rebound, and prices moderated.
But when it comes to housing, there is a perpetual supply malfunction that inflates costs: local government zoning policies that expressly forbid developers from building homes where people want them. Ordinances routinely ban the construction of multifamily housing and require homes to be built on very large lots, artificially boosting the price of shelter—the single biggest expense for most Americans. These policies serve the narrow interests of wealthier incumbent homeowners, and they make life more difficult for young middle-class families starting out and low-income families who must make choices between paying rent and buying food or medicine.
People often think that the free market is what gives communities their dramatically different housing costs and demographic makeups, but that’s only part of the story. In a market economy, communities with strong public schools and safe streets will, of course, command higher property values. Homes in those areas could be made much more affordable, however, if localities made it possible to build more units on the available land.
2023 marks the 15th anniversary of the creation of the App Economy, which has played a significant role in France’s economic growth. Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new report “The French App Economy: 2023” finding that the App Economy is responsible for 611,000 jobs in France as of May 2023. That accounts for roughly 23% of the total net gain in French jobs since 2008,when the Apple App Store and the Android Market, precursor to Google Play, first opened.
Report authors Michael Mandel, Vice President and Chief Economist, and Jordan Shapiro, Director of the Innovation Frontier Project, outline the new estimates of the job growth created by the App Economy, as well as how the App Economy has provided a route into the digital workforce for people who come from varied backgrounds.
“The App Economy has helped drive job growth in France for the past 15 years,” said Dr. Michael Mandel. “These positive trends seem to be continuing and it’s important to continue to expand the digital workforce to reflect these new opportunities.”
As digital jobs continue to grow, so does the demand for new digital skills. But supply for these skilled jobs continues to lag as workforce shortages persist across the tech industry. To address this issue, Taylor Maag, Director of Workforce Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute, released a new report titled “Closing the Digital Skills Gap: Unveiling Insights for Four Countries.” The report outlines the barriers confronting workers who want to acquire skills and examines four countries’ efforts to address the digital skill divide.
By the numbers:
● 611,000 jobs in the French App Economy, up 41% since 2019
● Across Europe and the U.S., job requirements for digital skills have increased by 50%.
On Thursday evening, PPI and its Mosaic Project will host a panel event celebrating the 15th anniversary of the app economy and discussing these new reports. Prisca Thevenot, MP, will give the keynote address to discuss the importance of digital skills in the workforce.
Read and download the “French App Economy” report here and the “Closing the Digital Skills Gap” report here.
One of the hottest social media apps these days is Paris-based BeReal. Released in 2020, BeReal encourages users to share a photo of themselves and their immediate surroundings at a random time every day.
BeReal is more than a fun app: It’s also part of France’s dynamic App Economy, which is helping to drive the country’s job growth and the development of core IT skills. For example, as of May 2023, BeReal was looking to hire a QA Engineer to create automated testing for the company’s iOS and Android apps.
But the French App Economy is not just light-hearted entertainment. The Directorate General for Armaments (DGA), a directorate of the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, was advertising for an “Ingénieur développeur iOS ou Android cybersécurité.” Indeed, such cybersecurity skills are essential to every part of the modern economy.
From social media to defense and health and manufacturing, and everything in between, the French App Economy includes 611,000 jobs. That’s according to the Progressive Policy Institute’s latest estimate, and it’s up 41% from our pre-pandemic 2019 estimate.
None of these jobs existed 15 years ago, when Apple first opened the App Store on July 10, 2008, in the middle of the global financial crisis. Android Market (which later became Google Play) was announced by Google shortly after. These app stores created a new route through which software developers could write programs for smartphones. These mobile applications — called “apps” — could then be distributed to the rapidly growing number of smartphone users around the world.
The jobs generated by the app stores became an important part of the recovery from the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the subsequent economic expansion, and the response to the pandemic. More than that, app development and the app stores became a key route by which young people can develop tech skills and became an integral part of the digital economy.
This report describes some important aspects of the French App Economy. We also give some examples of App Economy jobs and skills development.
A first-of-its-kind-in-the-nation high school model is making such a tremendous impact in Texas that the Texas State Legislature has just passed a bill to incentivize its replication in rural school districts statewide. The “Rural Schools Innovation Zone” (RSIZ) is a formal collaboration between three rural school districts. Focused on college attainment and career pathways for the 21st-century job market, the RSIZ is opening doors to postsecondary opportunities for rural students in ways previously impossible.
In an effort to amplify the success of this groundbreaking, rural school collaborative ⎯ and to bring the RSIZ to the attention of state and federal policymakers nationwide who represent rural families and industries ⎯ Progressive Policy Institute’s (PPI) Reinventing America’s Schools Project (RAS) today released a detailed report titled “Reinventing Rural Education: The Rural Schools Innovation Zone,” specifying the unique challenges rural schools face and how the RSIZ meets those challenges while expanding career pathways and workforce preparation for students. Report author Tressa Pankovits, Co-Director of Reinventing America’s Schools, outlines designing and implementing RSIZ and discusses how this model could be successful in other rural parts of the country.
“Traveling to southern Texas, I saw firsthand how the Rural Schools Innovation Zone prepared its students for success, said Tressa Pankovits, Co-Director of Reinventing America’s Schools. “The RSIZ collaboration in Texas should be a blueprint for other rural school districts across the country that aspire to give their students the opportunity to graduate with college credits and industry certifications that qualify them for jobs with family-sustaining wages. The RSIZ model is also designed to help rural communities keep up with the demand for skilled workers and revitalize rural communities.”
Nearly one in five U.S. students attend a rural school, but rural schools are often left behind in policy discussions due to their unique challenges. Seeking to rectify that, the Reinventing America’s Schools Project today hosted a delegation of students, educators, and administrators from the RSIZ to travel to Capitol Hill and host a panel discussion where the students shared their experiences possible through the RSIZ. The panel also included Alyssa Morton, CEO and Partner at Empower Schools, who discussed how her organization has played a vital role in launching and continuing to support ongoing success at the RSIZ.
During their visit to Capitol Hill with PPI, the attendees from the RSIZ also had the opportunity to directly engage with members and staff from their local congressional delegation. Alicia Seagraves, Senior Legislative Assistant for U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar (TX-28), attended the event and provided welcoming remarks on behalf of the Congressman’s office. After the event, the RSIZ group and PPI met with U.S. Representative Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34). Both Representatives Cuellar and Gonzalez represent areas of the RSIZ in Congress.
Educators, students, and administrators from the RSIZ, along with report author Tressa Pankovits, stand with U.S. Representative Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34).
The Reinventing America’s Schools Project inspires a 21st century model of public education geared to the knowledge economy. Two models, public charter schools and public innovation schools, are showing the way by providing autonomy for schools, accountability for results, and parental choice among schools tailored to the diverse learning styles of children. The project is co-led by Curtis Valentine and Tressa Pankovits.
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org. Find an expert at PPI and follow us on Twitter.
FACT: World carbon emissions are at 37.8 billion tons annually.
THE NUMBERS: World surface temperature average* –
2022 14.8 C
20th-century average 13.9 C
1880 13.7 C
* National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.climate.gov
WHAT THEY MEAN:
In PPI’s newest policy paper, PPI’s Paul Bledsoe and Ed Gresser look at global industrial carbon emissions, commiserate over transatlantic climate policy arguments (European carbon fees vs. American subsidies and local-production tax breaks) that though (a) steadily more fractious are (b) steadily less relevant to the main question of how to reduce global carbon emissions, and suggest a way forward. This is an “Alliance for Clean Trade” in which the U.S. and EU (or the G7, or the OECD members generally) agree on standards for emissions levels by industry, and fees for locally produced and imported goods whose production entails emissions above this standard. The hope would be to cool the arguments, speed up emissions reductions, and create more effective incentives for big middle-income countries to participate.
Background, and then a quick summary:
Humans now put just under 38 billion tons of carbon into the air per year. This compares to 0.2 billion tons in 1850 as Victorian steam technology took off; 6 billion tons in 1950; and 25 billion tons in 2000. The rise in emissions, especially in the last 50 years, has unbalanced a natural cycle in which volcanoes, forest fires, etc. put about 100 billion tons into the air annually, while carbon sinks such as oceans, forests, and phytoplankton pull it back. As a result, the “average surface temperature” worldwide is up by 1.1 degrees Celsius so far. Beleaguered climate scientists hope to stabilize this rise at 1.5 C, which entails bringing the current +38 billion tons to ‘net zero by 2050, and warn that failure to do so risks impacts ranging from the elimination of the 4-million-year-old Arctic sea ice and steadily escalating flood and fire impacts, to drier agricultural lands, alterations in ocean currents, and “feedback” effects from tundra melt that can accelerate the whole thing.
“Net zero” obviously requires reducing emissions by tens of billions of tons annually (and to the extent of possibly amplifying natural “sinks” and creating artificial ones that remove more carbon from the air). A look at current emissions by country provides a starting point for thinking about figures on this scale. Per “Our World in Data”, country totals in 2021 (counting the European Union as a single economy) looked like this:
World 37.1 billion tons
China 11.5 billion tons
U.S. 5.0 billion tons
European Union 2.8 billion tons
India 2.7 billion tons
Russia 1.8 billion tons
Japan 1.1 billion tons
Iran 0.7 billion tons
Saudi Arabia 0.7 billion tons
Indonesia 0.6 billion tons
Korea 0.6 billion tons
Canada 0.6 billion tons
Brazil 0.5 billion tons
South Africa 0.4 billion tons
Turkey 0.4 billion tons
Mexico 0.4 billion tons
All other 7.3 billion tons
Looking ahead, European and American emissions (along with Japanese, Canadian, Australian, etc. emissions) are falling. The U.S. for example peaked at 6 billion tons in 2005, and with a push from last year’s Inflation Reduction Act are likely to drop to 3 billion by 2030. Nonetheless, the divergence between the EU’s carbon price programs, and the more recent U.S. subsidies and tax credits, are sparking steadily angrier trans-Atlantic debates, with retaliations and countervailing duty cases possibly ahead. Meanwhile, China’s 12 billion tons are about a third of the world’s total and rising. Emissions from the four other “BRICS” (Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa) added 5.4 billion tons more, and are also rising. If these countries — or more abstractly, big middle-income countries and oil exporters — do not start cutting emissions very soon, the world in general will not only fail to hit net-zero on the scientists’ hoped-for schedule but may not cut emissions at all.
So the steps “developed” economies are taking are important but insufficient, and they should try to settle their quarrels over diverging national reduction strategies, improve them to the extent possible, and find ways to induce large middle-income countries to join. This is the point of the paper’s “Alliance for Clean Trade” idea and its hopefully catchy ACT acronym. The goal would be to reduce worldwide emissions from industrial sources, which in total produce about a quarter of world emissions. The basic points:
(1) ACT participants would set a common “standard” for carbon emissions released in the course of producing selected relevant goods (beginning with the six products chosen to launch the EU’s carbon border adjustment program — steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, hydrogen, and electricity) and collect identical fees for emissions above the standard. This would apply to both locally produced and imported products, and so be consistent with the WTO “national treatment” principle.
(2) The ACT would supersede the European Union’s CBAM, while the U.S. would authorize full participation in tax credits for minerals and automobiles (as Canada and Mexico now receive) produced in ACT-compliant countries, and consider eligibility for participants in additional clean energy subsidies.
(3) Original participants would at minimum be the U.S. and EU, or in more ambitious versions the G7 countries or the 37 OECD members. Once launched, the group would consider creating “on-ramps” for countries at different stages of development.
FURTHER READING:
Gresser/Bledsoe’s report on climate change, trade, and a different approach.
Background and data:
NOAA’s summary of worldwide surface temperature change since 1880.
The International Energy Agency reports on carbon emissions in 2022.
Our World in Data tracks emissions by country, industry sector, etc.
And the Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2021 looks ahead with projections by region and major country through 2050 (now a bit dated; EIA will publish a new version in September).
And some science:
NASA explains the natural “fast” (air to plants) and “slow” (rocks to air) carbon cycles, and the impact of human-caused emissions. Dates to 2011, so the human emissions totals are badly dated, but the basic science remains useful.
ABOUT ED
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank Progressive Economy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.
The Federal Reserve recently announced it was skipping another interest rate increase for the first time in 15 months to assess the impact of its efforts to quash inflation.
Apparently, one of the reasons for the pause was disagreement among the 12 members of the Federal Open Markets Committee about what to do next. The hawks—who want to raise rates at least twice more this year—argue that inflation is still above the Fed’s target of 2% to 3%, and that core inflation (sans volatile gas and food prices), remains stubbornly high at 5.3% year-over-year.
Other committee members want to leave things where they stand for now. They point out that consumer prices rose a modest 4% in May from 12 months earlier—the smallest increase in more than two years—and that the full impact of the central bank’s 10 previous rate hikes is still not known.
But despite their differing views on interest rates, both the hawks and the doves on the FOMC think the Fed has the economy heading for a soft landing, in which inflation levels are reduced without sending the economy into a tailspin.
INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS WORKING TOGETHER TO MAXIMIZE STUDENTS’ COLLEGE AND CAREER PATHWAYS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Nearly 1 in 5 U.S. students attend rural schools. That’s about 9.3 million kids. Yet, during policy discussions, rural schools’ unique challenges are often eclipsed by those of their urban and suburban counterparts. This report is a case study of an innovative, replicable public education experiment at three rural Texas high schools called the Rural Schools Innovation Zone (RSIZ). This first-of-its-kind experiment is a collaboration between three rural school districts focusing on college attainment and career pathways for the 21st-century job market.
It is proving so successful that the Texas state legislature passed a bill designating funding to incentivize more school districts to adopt the model. The bill became law on June 2, 2023. Texas’ significant step forward for equity and rural workforce development deserves national attention.
By raw numbers, Texas is responsible for educating more rural students than any other state, given its vast metropolises, but it isn’t even among the top 10 states with the largest percentage of rural students. The 2018-2019 Report of the Rural Schools and Community Trust found that rural public schools account for more than half of schools in 12 states. In Vermont (55%) and Maine (54%), more than half of students live in non-metro areas. In 18 other states, rural students account for 30% to 49% of the student population. Those states are spread through every geographic region in the country. More American students attend rural schools than the largest 85 school districts combined.
And, rural schools are becoming more diverse, gaining more English as a second language (ESL) and special education students in recent years, while seeing White rural students decrease by 3%. Today, nearly one-in-three rural students are non-White.
While rural demographics are changing, rural poverty is stubborn. According to the most recent estimates from the 2019 American Community Survey, the non-metro poverty rate was 15.4% in 2019, compared with 11.9% in metro areas. Poverty is more severe for rural children and minorities. Almost 23% of rural children under the age of 18 live in poverty, compared to just under 17.7% of non-rural children. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 30.7% of rural Black Americans, 29.6% of American Indian/Alaska natives, and 21.7% of rural Hispanic Americans live in poverty, compared to 12.7% of White rural citizens. The Rural School and Community Trust report found that nationwide, the communities surrounding schools in rural districts on average had a household income of just 2.68 times the poverty line.
Those statistics point to the urgency of the need to improve school systems that serve rural students. Providing regionally relevant career and technical education (CTE) is especially important, as 42% of rural Americans say finding a job is a major concern, while only 39% of them are willing to move from home to find work. Innovating to provide rural high school students with equitable access to college and/or career readiness opportunities for regionally available jobs is a national imperative that requires us to think in new ways and to try new things. Traditional, one-size-fits-all school districts must yield to more flexible programming.
This is why it is worthy to discuss the successful experiment just codified into state law in Texas. The goal of this case study is to explain and publicize the initiative, called the Rural Schools Innovation Zone (RSIZ), in the hopes that other states with significant rural populations may consider it as a tool for combating challenges, including institutional stagnation, isolation, underfunding, and generational poverty, that prevent rural school students from graduating college or career ready.
The report is organized into the following sections:
• Presenting the Rural Schools Innovations Zone (RSIZ) as a 21st-century model for expanding career pathways and preparation, including early credit and industry certification components;
• Quantifying the challenges rural schools experience;
• Understanding the RSIZ career pathways and early college “academies”;
• Designing and implementing the RSIZ collaboration between three independent school districts:
– Structuring the governance and leadership framework;
– Aligning career pathways to the local economy;
– Student recruitment;
– Student outcomes
• Operating the RSIZ:
– Finance and funding streams;
– Human capital;
– Scheduling and transportation;
– Data sharing;
• Codifying the RSIZ collaborative and conclusion.
After one presidential defeat, two impeachments, two criminal indictments and, possibly, two more to come, Donald Trump has learned nothing. He still insists he won the 2020 election – by a landslide – and that he’s the victim of a vast deep-state conspiracy bent on his destruction.
It’s hard to believe: A plainly delusional 77-year old is making a third run for the White House on an explicit platform of wreaking revenge on his political enemies. Yet somehow he’s outpacing his saner Republican rivals and, in some polls, is even with President Joe Biden.
This is nuts, and it poses a riddle for Biden and the Democrats: Why aren’t they 20 points ahead? Why can’t they rally a solid majority of Americans to protect our constitutional democracy against an incendiary demagogue?
Part of the answer lies in Trump’s hold on white working-class voters, who believe he’s fighting to preserve their idea of America. Another is found in Democrats’ leftward march over the past two decades, which has made it hard for them to win across America’s pragmatic center.
2023 marks the 15th anniversary of the creation of the App Economy, which has played a significant role in the United Kingdom’s economic growth. Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new report “The UK App Economy: 2023” finding that the App Economy is responsible for 667,000 jobs in the United Kingdom as of May 2023. That accounts for roughly 20% of the total net gain in U.K. jobs since 2008, when the Apple App Store and the Android Market, precursor to Google Play, first opened.
Report authors Michael Mandel, Vice President and Chief Economist, and Jordan Shapiro, Director of the Innovation Frontier Project, outline the new estimates of the job growth created by the App Economy, as well as how the App Economy has provided a route into the digital workforce for people who come from varied backgrounds.
“The App Economy has helped drive job growth in the United Kingdom for the past 15 years,” said Dr. Michael Mandel.“These positive trends seem to be continuing and it’s important to continue to expand the digital workforce to reflect these new opportunities.”
As digital jobs continue to grow, so does the demand for new digital skills. But supply for these skilled jobs continues to lag as workforce shortages persist across the tech industry. To address this issue, Taylor Maag, Director of Workforce Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute, released a new report titled “Closing the Digital Skills Gap: Unveiling Insights for Four Countries.” The report outlines the barriers confronting workers who want to acquire skills and examines four countries’ efforts to address the digital skill divide.
By the numbers:
667,000 jobs in the U.K. App Economy, up 75% since 2019
Across Europe and the U.S., job requirements for digital skills have increased by 50%
On Tuesday evening, PPI and its Mosaic Project will host a panel event with the British Computer Society and Women Who Code London, celebrating the 15th anniversary of the app economy and discussing these new reports.
Read and download the “UK App Economy” report here and the “Closing the Digital Skills Gap” report here.
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C., with offices in Brussels, Berlin and the United Kingdom. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.org.
