Redefining the Military’s Role in Wildfire Suppression

Executive Summary

Wildfires are becoming more widespread, frequent, and destructive due to climate change and historical malpractices in forest management. As civil agencies become overwhelmed, U.S. firefighting efforts have become more dependent on military resources. Between 2017 and 2021, the National Guard’s man-hours spent fighting wildfires grew more than tenfold; wildfire costs ballooned to almost $82 billion over the same period.

The armed forces field unique capabilities that can benefit firefighting efforts, particularly the ability to rapidly deploy large forces to remote locations. However, overrelying on the military to combat wildfires could impair its capacity to ensure U.S. national security. If the current model of double-tasking military units persists, the country would be unable to mount an adequate response if faced with both a high-intensity conflict and a severe wildfire season. Therefore, given the armed forces’ increasing commitments abroad and the expanding threat of wildfires to the homeland, other government agencies and private contractors should shoulder the growing burden of fire suppression and implement more efficient fire practices so that military units can remain dedicated to their core missions.

Read the full report.

Federal Regulators Get Serious About Regional Transmission Planning With New FERC Orders

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) recently finalized two rules for the country’s electricity grids that represent the most significant paradigm shift towards expansion in over a decade. Marking a renewed focus on long-neglected transmission policy, the rules fundamentally alter and begin to standardize the thicket of existing approaches to regional transmission planning by codifying principles of longevity, transparency, and engagement. FERC, the independent agency responsible for regulating interstate energy transmission and wholesale electricity markets, issued Orders 1920 and 1977 at a time of growing policymaker and consumer concern over the state of U.S. electricity infrastructure, which is managing a complex transition through the rise of more frequent extreme weather events, a shifting generation mix, and growing demand from end-use electrification, new manufacturing facilities, and data centers. Although more will be needed on the legislative front — particularly on permitting reform, something PPI has adamantly pushed for — FERC has made commendable progress on the planning side of transmission with these new rules.

The orders underscore the need for increased transmission capacity in our nation’s grid. As demand for electricity balloons, there is growing concern that the country’s transmission networks are hard-pressed to meet household and industry needs, and woefully underdeveloped to reach Biden’s electrification and clean generation goals in the next decade. Growing investment in clean energy generation across the United States faces a bottlenecked grid system caused in no small part by a convoluted set of planning processes. More broadly, the regulatory regime governing the electricity sector comprises an antiquated patchwork of utilities, commissions, and state and federal agencies, ill-suited to accommodate the rapid integration of new technologies or a coordinated, long-term approach to transmission planning.

The rules attempt to address these concerns by providing frameworks for a more collaborative and transparent regional approach to planning that encourages forward thinking and clears unnecessary siting holdups. Order 1920, which was approved 2-1 on a partisan basis with Democrat-appointed commissioners in the majority, contains a number of planning requirements, notably for transmission operators to produce scenario-based regional transmission plans with outlooks of at least 20 years, and to conduct this planning every five years using the best available data. The order also requires that operators determine how projects might achieve seven outlined economic and reliability benefits in the evaluation and selection of long-term regional transmission facilities, further ensuring that long-term transmission needs are considered and addressed cost-effectively. To encourage innovative approaches to transmission planning, Order 1920 obliges operators to consider grid-enhancing technologies (GETs) such as dynamic line ratings and advanced conductors, though without directly mandating their use — likely to avoid overreach, constitutional challenge, and to ensure these technologies are only deployed where doing so has explicit operational and financial advantages.

Another significant new policy included in the order is a requirement to identify opportunities for in-kind replacements of existing facilities to be “right-sized” and thus increase their capacity in a cost-effective manner. Incumbent utilities will be offered federal rights of first refusal (ROFRs) to develop these “right-sized” facilities to avoid the construction of redundant transmission projects. The cost allocation provisions of Order 1920 mandate six-month engagement periods with predefined Relevant State Entities along with plans for a default cost allocation method for selected long-term transmission facilities. They also encourage loosely defined state agreements between providers and Relevant State Entities for selected participants to determine how project costs will be shared among stakeholders. These provisions, in tandem with a mandated process inviting states and consumers to fund some or all of facilities that would otherwise not meet operators’ selection criteria, enable consumers to only pay for projects that benefit them and highlight a renewed emphasis on transparency and state involvement in transmission planning.

Order 1977, which was approved with unanimous consent, complements the new planning framework by adding a backstop measure to prevent proposed projects from fading into obscurity when states fail to act. Specifically, it establishes a process for FERC to exercise its limited authority over siting transmission lines in accordance with amendments to Sec. 216 of the Federal Power Act enacted via the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. The amendments clarified FERC’s authority to issue permits when state commissions have (i) not made siting determinations by one year following application submission or National Corridor designation, (ii) conditioned approval such that projects are no longer feasible or inadequately reduce capacity constraints, or (iii) denied an application. While affirming states’ primary role in the siting of transmission lines, the rule promotes timely review of siting applications and leaves room for FERC to preclude individual states from inhibiting projects that would be beneficial at the regional or national level.

The rule also introduces a Landowner Bill of Rights which ensures that landowners are notified of potential transmission line projects and permitted to intervene in open Commission proceedings, and codifies an Applicant Code of Conduct to facilitate good-faith engagement between applicants and landowners during the permitting process. To drive home the engagement imperative, transmission line applicants are further required to conduct outreach to environmental justice and Tribal communities. Mandated Environmental Justice Public Engagement Plans will be used to create Environmental Justice Resource Reports to identify impacted communities and detail the effects of projects, and similarly, Tribal Engagement Plans will feed into Tribal Engagement Resource Reports for the same purpose. These stakeholder engagement requirements will hopefully break the cycle of inadequate notification and litigation by residents and quicken project approval through a more proactive and transparent input process. But they must take into account a project’s broader dispersed benefits and avoid granting landowners and local communities an undue veto when entire regions stand to gain.

Taken together, the new rules lay down a much-needed groundwork for the future of transmission in the United States. They provide for a set of processes that bring together state, federal, and private entities to assess and develop long-term transmission projects to meet the needs of Americans in a more holistic and cost-sensitive way. Yet to a certain extent, these changes seem so obvious that many Americans might be surprised that such planning practices were not already in place. In reality, they represent only a fraction of the reforms needed to boost transmission development to the pace needed in order to restore reliability, meet growing demand, and enable the clean energy transition. These new planning mechanisms for enhanced project longevity and regional engagement are crucial in their own right, but as FERC Commissioner Allison Clements notes, more is needed than just the “raw ingredients” for states and transmission providers to build out the grid at a scale consistent with demand.

To keep this momentum, Congress needs to step in. There have been promising attempts at using legislation to speed up the environmental review and permitting process, but outside of the small changes included in the Fiscal Responsibility Act, Congress has not yet been able to hammer out an agreement on comprehensive permitting reform. With existing proposals such as the 2022 Manchin-Schumer deal and a range of transmission-specific bills including the SITE Act, FASTER Act, and SPEED and Reliability Act, there is ample opportunity to do so. And despite recent disagreements over a comprehensive permitting deal, the issue itself remains a bipartisan concern.

Without comprehensive permitting reform and steps to improve interregional planning on top of these regional transmission changes, these new FERC rules alone will not solve the transmission gridlock. Facilities connecting transmission regions are the most difficult type to plan, pay for, and permit under the current regime, despite their crucial role in limiting the impact of local extreme weather events and serving as the most important type of transmission line for connecting remote wind and solar resources to large cities and manufacturing hubs. Further executive and legislative action will be necessary to expedite energy projects like these, and while FERC has undoubtedly taken important steps toward optimizing the U.S. transmission infrastructure, building out a sufficient network will take leaps and bounds.

East Asian Energy Security and Biden’s LNG Pause

INTRODUCTION

In 2016, the U.S. began exporting liquefied natural gas. Only eight years later, it has become the world’s largest exporter of LNG, shipping 86 million tons internationally in 2023. The growth of U.S. gas production facilitated the retirement of coal plants domestically, bolstered U.S. exports, offered a powerful foreign policy lever, and offered employment to more than 4 million Americans. Furthermore, it allowed the U.S. to fill energy shortfalls in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which compelled European nations to reduce their usage of Russian hydrocarbons and caused Moscow to shut down Nord Stream 1 (which was then destroyed in suspected sabotage). As a result, Europe required new sources of natural gas, and the United States was perfectly positioned to mitigate these shortages. From 2021 to 2022, U.S. LNG exports to Europe increased a remarkable 119%. However, this came at the cost of U.S. LNG exports to Asia, which fell by nearly 50%.

Asia is the largest importer of liquefied natural gas and leads the world in primary energy consumption. In 2022, the top three importers of LNG were comprised of two key allies and Washington’s chief international competitor: Japan, South Korea, and the world’s largest GHG emitter, China. All three of these countries consume vast amounts of energy and are highly reliant on fossil fuel energy imports. Although a growing capacity exists to fill these needs with renewable energy, such resources are currently unable to fully meet the requirements for balanced electricity grids and industrial applications. The U.S. is not the primary energy supplier in Asia, but U.S. LNG supply plays a critical role in reducing these nations’ emissions, as U.S. natural gas emits less greenhouse gas than coal, oil, and most other natural gas supply chains. In addition, U.S. natural gas provides energy security to allies, such as Japan and South Korea, in case of disruption or conflict. Ensuring access to sufficient supplies of low-emissions natural gas, accompanied by other innovative, low-carbon, and exportable energy technologies, is vital to American interests. Therefore, the uncertainty created by the Biden administration’s LNG pause risks reducing energy security for U.S. allies in East Asia, weakening Washington’s national security, and exacerbating global climate change.

Read the full report.

The Cautionary Tale of ESG Oversight: Arkansas Should Heed Texas’ $886 Million Cost for Prioritizing Politics

With the creation of a new ESG Oversight Committee, Arkansas has made a substantial shift in the state’s changing investment and sustainability landscape. The committee was fully formed last month when Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders appointed Tom Lundstrom as the committee’s fifth and final member. This committee is charged with identifying financial service providers who are thought to discriminate against certain traditional value industries (fossil fuels, ammunition, etc.) based on ESG-related considerations under last year’s House Bill 1307, which is now Act 411.

The committee’s judgments will have a significant impact on Arkansas’s investment climate and economy as it advances, with noteworthy deadlines for delivering its preliminary and final lists of these financial providers. The recently released report, “The Potential Economic and Tax Revenue Impact of Texas’ Fair Access Laws”, conducted by the Texas Association of Business Chambers of Commerce Fund (TABCCF), is an important source the Arkansas committee should review in order to understand the possible harm that comparable anti-ESG legislation has caused states who have chosen to inject politics into their decision making.

According to the TABCCF study, during 2022-2023, the Texas anti-ESG legislation resulted in an estimated:

 

  • $668.7 million lost in economic activity.
  • $180.7 million in decreased annual earnings.
  • 3,034 fewer full-time, permanent jobs.
  • $37.1  million in losses to State and local tax revenue.

 

The study asserts: “These findings illustrate that when government attempts to mandate values, no matter what kind to businesses, the market loses.”

The report is built on earlier work included in a 2023 study titled “Gas, Guns, and Governments: Financial Costs of Anti-ESG Policies,” by Drs. Ivan Ivanov of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Dan Garrett of the University of Pennsylvania. The study looked at certain organizations that were thought to be boycotting due to their affiliations or fiduciary decisions that have been expelled or removed from the municipal bond market.

Their resulting analysis: this legislation did, in fact, limit competition in the public finance sector, raising interest rates by 0.144 percent.

Thanks to its pro-business environment, Texas now has the eighth-largest economy in the world. Less competition in the municipal bond market, however, is driving up interest rates, which puts more strain on local governments’ finances and adds to the costs borne by Texas taxpayers.

If that wasn’t enough, the underlying political effects of these politically driven policies continue to rear their head. Just this week, Aaron Kinsey, the Chair of the Texas State Board of Education (SBOE) announced the Texas Permanent School Fund Corporation divest approximately $8.5 billion of assets BlackRock currently manages for them – a move that will undoubtedly further increase costs while reducing returns for Texas schools.

This action, which allegedly came without a formal board vote, quickly upset Kinsey’s fellow SBOE board members. “We just can’t divest from them overnight. They’re very good moneymakers for us,” Republican SBOE board member Pat Hardy said of BlackRock, concluding, “They’ve been really good. They’ve been one of our main investment people for, gosh, 15 years.”

Given this context, Arkansas is presented with a cautionary tale that highlights the necessity for thoughtful assessment to prevent deterring business investments in the state and jeopardizing fund performance for political theater.

The position taken on this matter by the Arkansas Teachers Retirement System (ATRS) highlights the financial implications and practical difficulties associated with enacting a narrow boycott list. ATRS has emphasized that three BlackRock-managed funds, which have over $1.2 billion invested in them, do not exhibit bias against the energy, fossil fuel, weapons, or ammunition businesses. This disclosure is crucial because it demonstrates the system’s all-encompassing approach to guarantee that its investment managers respect Arkansas’s ESG standards while also being in line with the members’ financial interests.

Given the possibility of major financial ramifications, the Arkansas ESG Oversight Committee’s next judgments should be approached with prudence. The ATRS warning highlights the conflict between political goals and practical economic considerations on the potential costs of divesting from financial services companies—should they end up on the boycott list. Divestment of this kind might cost retired teachers in Arkansas alone at least $6 million.

The larger lesson is evident as Arkansas proceeds: establishing an ESG-related boycott list in a transition economy has complicated ramifications for retirees and private investors alike, in addition to the state’s budget and broader economy. The combination of ATRS’s proactive actions and Texas’ experience serves as a crucial reminder of the necessity for a nuanced, balanced approach that protects the interests of all parties involved. It will take careful thought and, most importantly, a clear understanding of the lessons gained from other jurisdictions to ensure that Arkansas maintains its inviting status for businesses.

PPI Statement on DOE’s Progress to Create a Framework For Measuring Emissions of Oil and Gas Supply Chains

Washington, D.C. – Today, Elan Sykes, the Director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI), released the following statement in response to the Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management update on the development of a framework to measure emissions for domestic oil and gas that would cover Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports.

“The Progressive Policy Institute applauds the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management for the progress made on developing a framework for the Measurement, Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MMRV) of oil and gas supply chain emissions.

“Since President Biden announced a pause to LNG export terminal expansion, PPI has been outspoken against the pause and advocated that DOE quickly create an environmental public interest test for LNG exports that is meaningful, workable, and transparent. Building this framework for domestic oil and gas supply chains is a crucial effort needed to develop accurate and comparable data across the U.S. industry. The framework would also allow for the adoption of a practical and clear environmental standard without excluding consideration of other economic or national security interests as required under the Natural Gas Act.

“While this announcement is a step in the right direction, the Biden administration should adopt an MMRV standard and immediately lift the pause on LNG export expansion, which poses major risks both domestically and internationally. President Biden has made tremendous progress in America’s clean energy transition and should instead build on this success by focusing on emissions reductions at home and abroad through faster domestic permitting, deployment of clean energy, and continued innovation to bring down the cost of low-carbon technologies for the world.”

PPI’s Energy and Climate Solutions Initiative has long been focused on the impact of U.S. LNG exports both domestically and internationally. In December, PPI released a report outlining the importance of U.S. LNG exports to Europe during the second winter of Russia’s war with Ukraine. In February, PPI released a memo to the White House outlining a productive and pragmatic approach to building a methane MMRV framework. PPI’s senior advisor, Tim Ryan, released an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal highlighting how the ban is bad politics for Democrats ahead of an election year.

Additionally, PPI has been actively engaged in policymaking discussions around the climate and energy security interests involved in the LNG exports pause, including briefings with the New Democrat Coalition and the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus.

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.orgFind an expert at PPI and follow us on Twitter.

Follow the Progressive Policy Institute.

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Media Contact: Amelia Fox, afox@ppionline.org

Ryan for The Wall Street Journal: LNG Export Ban Is Atrocious Politics

By Tim Ryan

Many climate activists are celebrating the Biden administration’s decision to curtail exports of liquefied natural gas. The policy, however, is a political misstep and not only for the reasons most critics give. For a moment, set aside the national-security implications—that limiting American exports will punish our allies around the world—and the concern that this decision may spur European and Asian countries to burn more coal. By picking at a cultural scab some of us in the Democratic Party have worked to heal, the policy also risks alienating key voting blocs from Joe Biden’s campaign and climate policy writ large.

This is a political challenge I know personally. When I used to make my weekly journey from Youngstown, Ohio, to Pittsburgh on my way to Washington, I passed an enormous “cracker plant” being constructed off the expressway—a facility that processed ethane and other components of the natural gas being extracted from Appalachian shale formations. As a Democratic congressman, I looked on with hope and pride: Our region was creating well-paying union jobs in an industry that was fighting climate change by retiring coal in favor of cleaner gas.

What those celebrating the LNG export pause don’t understand is that the people working in that cracker plant, as well as the voters who thrived in the fracking boom, aren’t all climate-change deniers, which I discovered through conversations with constituents. Though they once resisted the idea that the climate is changing, many told me that they now believe in climate change and agree that extractive and energy-producing industries do need to change and become cleaner. The employees at that cracker plant rightly saw their work as their contribution to progress. The natural gas they were pulling out of the ground was supposed to replace dirty coal and nurture clean-energy businesses in the region. They had gone from being labeled as part of the problem to part of the solution—and they were proud.

Keep reading in The Wall Street Journal.

Navigating the Winds of Change: Asset Managers’ Strategic Shifts in Climate Initiatives

The finance industry has, until recently, taken a collective approach to climate change, showing a united front in addressing one of the great challenges of our time. But that groupthink approach is evolving, as seen by recent third-party engagement modifications made by top asset managers such as BlackRock, JPMorgan Asset Management, and State Street Global Advisors. These coalition changes, especially in how they interact with Climate Action 100+, a climate-focused, investor-led program that was introduced in 2017 that recently announced an evolution in focus known as “phase 2,” (described by the organization as “markedly shifting the focus from corporate climate-related disclosure to the implementation of climate transition plans”), indicate a subtle recalibration as opposed to a retreat from environmental commitments.

The decision of State Street and JPMorgan to reallocate resources elsewhere, together with BlackRock’s decision to transfer its involvement to its overseas arm, demonstrate the difficult balancing act these multinational behemoths face.  They find themselves at a crossroads where they must continue to carry out their fiduciary responsibilities in the face of shifting market and regulatory environments while attempting to pilot the maiden voyage toward environmental sustainability. This shift demonstrates a wider trend in the financial sector: the path to a low-carbon, sustainable future is complex and calls for a flexible multimodal strategy that respects global decarbonization targets while navigating a patchwork of regulatory frameworks and client preferences.

In its announcement, BlackRock previewed the launch of a new stewardship option that will provide clients additional decarbonization engagement and proxy voting options. Furthermore, the introduction of programs such as Decarbonization Partners by Temasek and BlackRock highlights a consistent commitment to creative solutions to climate-related problems. This pledge to make strategic investments in next-generation businesses that are necessary to achieve a net-zero global economy by 2050 is an example of how the investment landscape is changing in terms of how it approaches climate action, and- to be blunt- a more efficient use of institutional resources and expertise being applied to climate efforts. (and yes, potentially profitable.)

The shift towards proactive participation is also shown by JPMorgan Chase’s Center for Carbon Transition (CCT), which offers bespoke assistance and in-house expertise to worldwide clients as they navigate the low-carbon transition. This project, which aims to match the company’s finance portfolio with the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, demonstrates an understanding and actionable willingness to address the challenges associated with making the transition to a sustainable energy future.

State Street Global Advisors has demonstrated its active involvement in influencing policy directions that promote sustainable investment practices by continuing to invest in research and content platforms to interact with policymakers on decarbonization and the clean energy transition. This proactive approach to innovation and policy formation shows a dedication to the ultimate objective of realizing a path to a low-carbon economy.

These calculated realignments show the extent to which the financial industry understands the challenges and opportunities associated with the shift to more sustainable energy sources. (It is also a tacit acknowledgement that a “one size fits all” approach itself, isn’t sustainable.)  Rather than indicating a turnback, these organizations are improving their tactics to more effectively advance the decarbonization of the world economy. This sophisticated approach highlights the value of flexibility, client autonomy, and active participation in the dynamic field of climate action.

Ultimately, these tactical changes, however, continue to underscore a collective, if changing, commitment to helping the global energy transformation as the financial world continues to work through the great unknown of the energy transition. This journey, characterized by thoughtful analysis, demonstrates the industry’s willingness to make the tough decisions posed by a sustainable, environmentally conscious future.

PPI Proposes Path Forward on White House LNG Export Pause

Washington, D.C. — The Biden administration’s recent decision to pause expansion of LNG export terminals has created uncertainty among producers and consumers of U.S. natural gas, including America’s allies abroad. Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a memo to the White House proposing a way forward: Lifting the pause for companies that submit to third-party measurement and certification of their methane emissions.

PPI proposes that the Department of Energy (DOE) act swiftly to design an environmental public interest test for LNG exports that is meaningful, workable, and transparent. Such a test could be built around a third-party verification of methane performance for the entire supply chain. Current certification standards cover roughly one third of U.S. gas production, and ensuring a high environmental standard across exports would benefit both the environment and U.S. companies, especially at a time when major trading partners are implementing similar requirements.

“The indefinite LNG permit pause has created significant uncertainty that risks the economic, national security, and coal-displacement benefits of U.S. LNG exports,” said Elan Sykes, Director of Energy and Climate Policy at PPI. “Paired with key mitigation provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act, methane certification would meet the administration’s climate aims and reassure U.S. allies and trading partners who increasingly depend on a reliable supply of low-methane gas.

U.S. LNG exports play an essential role in meeting global energy demand, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. PPI’s proposal aims to achieve net emissions reductions on a global scale, vital to combating climate change, without disrupting the LNG industry in the U.S. This industry has grown to play a sizable role in the U.S. economy, with jobs that pay well above the national average and $47.4 billion in exports in 2022 driving the energy sector to a record-high 18% share of overall U.S. goods exported that year.

The Biden Administration has made tremendous progress in America’s clean energy transition, especially through the Inflation Reduction Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS Act. The Administration can continue to build on this success by focusing on emissions reductions at home and abroad through faster domestic permitting, deployment of clean energy, and continued innovation to bring down the cost of low-carbon technologies for the world.

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Media Contact: Amelia Fox – afox@ppionline.org

Challenges with the LNG Climate Test Pause

Today, the White House announced a temporary pause on future Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export terminal projects to include consideration of their climate impact. PPI is concerned that the pause announced today overstates and oversimplifies the serious climate, energy, and foreign policy considerations involved in assessing America’s stance on future LNG export expansion. Europe has still not fully recovered from the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, during which U.S. exports were crucial in providing stability to the European Union.

As PPI has previously noted, we do not oppose a well reasoned climate test for LNG export facilities. But the threat of curtailing LNG exports to our allies will put the markets, the EU, and Asia in turmoil, threatening the energy security of our allies with no climate benefit. Since the invasion of Ukraine, LNG shipments to Europe came at the expense of exports to other U.S. allies and developing-world trading partners that were forced to cut back or burn more coal instead; in the longer run, trading partners with manufacturing and chemicals industries that rely on natural gas cannot simply swap in coal, and so will lose out to countries that rely on older and dirtier production methods fed by coal.

As the U.S. works with importing allies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea to develop standards that ensure low-methane LNG purchases, a transparent and rigorous test could help all exports track the progress made through President Biden’s signature IRA methane policies and fairly stack gas emissions against the climate cost of mining and burning more coal or dirtier Russian gas.

But the tenor of today’s announcement belies the real hopes of most test supporters — in their misguided crusade to keep U.S. natural gas “in the ground,” the activists pushing the test could lead to a world of greater global greenhouse gas emissions as countries that import our gas find dirtier sources, or even revert to coal while killing U.S. jobs and increasing Putin’s leverage in Europe. Speeding up zero-carbon clean energy deployment at home and abroad is a much higher priority for the global fight against climate change, and one that doesn’t pit Democratic constituencies or U.S. allies against each other. The urgency of the energy transition cannot excuse counterproductive purity tests: We need to reduce emissions as fast as possible, not stop producing energy and hoping working people around the world stop needing it.

Sykes and Brown for The Messenger: Uncompromising Activism: The New Threat to the Environment, Geopolitics and the Biden Administration

By Elan Sykes and Neel Brown

Under pressure from green activists, the Biden administration is considering adopting a climate test in permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Coming out of the pandemic-driven supply shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, American LNG exports were the largest of any single country in 2023 and served crucial roles in the U.S. economy, the environment and geopolitical support for European allies.

The activists hope to stop LNG infrastructure projects in spite of these benefits, apparently out of misguided trust for a single study and seemingly without concern for the political backlash among working-class and swing-state voters at home and allies abroad. The form of policy demand these left-wing activists have adopted is to require the inclusion of climate impacts in the federal government’s calculation of public interest in permits for LNG export facilities. Based on an unreviewed paper with what we view as overly narrow calculations and sorely outdated evidence, it seems the activists assume that the inclusion of climate criteria in the permit decision would end the export of LNG — which they believe would constitute climate progress. But gas is cleaner than coal, and because U.S. gas is relatively clean and getting even cleaner due to signature Biden policies, the climate calculus of growing liquefied gas exports does not mean that a comprehensive test of their impact would bear out the anti-export position of some environmental activists.

The economic and political risk for Democrats is enormous. President Biden knows that his political future is tied directly to issues like inflation and to winning back working-class voters in swing states like Pennsylvania. Remember that Biden made a late 2020 campaign stop in Pennsylvania for the explicit purpose of letting voters know that he was not against fracking. To allow the far left to derail the natural gas successes of this administration would be electorally disastrous.

Read more.

This story was originally published by The Messenger on January 18, 2024.

Uncompromising Activism: The New Threat to the Environment, Geopolitics and the Biden Administration

Under pressure from green activists, the Biden administration is considering adopting a climate test in permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Coming out of the pandemic-driven supply shocks and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, American LNG exports were the largest of any single country in 2023 and served crucial roles in the U.S. economy, the environment and geopolitical support for European allies.

The activists hope to stop LNG infrastructure projects in spite of these benefits apparently out of misguided trust for a single study and seemingly without concern for the political backlash among working-class and swing-state voters at home and allies abroad. The form of policy demand these left-wing activists have adopted is to require the inclusion of climate impacts in the federal government’s calculation of public interest in permits for LNG export facilities. Based on an unreviewed paper with what we view as overly narrow calculations and sorely outdated evidence, it seems the activists assume that the inclusion of climate criteria in the permit decision would end the export of LNG — which they believe would constitute climate progress. But gas is cleaner than coal, and because U.S. gas is relatively clean and getting even cleaner due to signature Biden policies, the climate calculus of growing liquefied gas exports does not mean that a comprehensive test of their impact would bear out the anti-export position of some environmental activists.

The economic and political risk for Democrats is enormous. President Biden knows that his political future is tied directly to issues like inflation and to winning back working-class voters in swing states like Pennsylvania. Remember that Biden made a late 2020 campaign stop in Pennsylvania for the explicit purpose of letting voters know that he was not against fracking. To allow the far left to derail the natural gas successes of this administration would be electorally disastrous.

Furthermore, world energy markets and our allies in Europe and East Asia are relying on the U.S. to serve as a clean backstop supplier of LNG exports to avoid market shocks like COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Because American natural gas exports provide such significant geopolitical and economic benefits, and because they provide world markets that lack other coal substitutes with a key source of lower-polluting LNG, a well-constructed test for the climate impact of LNG exports would not be the death knell of the export industry supposed by both sides of this debate. If the groups pushing for a test were to write it themselves, the simplistic result could cause significant damage to the global environment and world energy markets.

By contrast, a well-designed calculation could serve as a rigorous and transparent benchmark for assessing the relative climate benefits of U.S. natural gas and the development of differentiated markets for lower-methane gas with like-minded green importing allies. An honest approach to evaluating the climate and geopolitical impacts of LNG facilities would take into account the climate costs of mining more coal, burning more coal and using coal as a chemical feedstock. A fair test would acknowledge air pollution differences and coal mine methane leaks that exceed natural gas methane emissions by likely underestimated official measurements. It would account for the boon to Putin if U.S. LNG shipments to Europe and Asia declined, sending those markets back into the fold of the Russian petrostate.

The U.S. reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 2% in 2023, largely as a result of lower coal use. The U.S. was instrumental in averting an energy catastrophe in Europe following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. There is finally a path forward to help Asia reduce its dependence on coal by switching to cleaner U.S. LNG. The synergies of natural gas electricity production with intermittent wind and solar are paying huge climate benefits. And future technology deployments in carbon capture and hydrogen may require infrastructure innovations developed in gas transport.

Some far-left environmentalists seem willing to throw all of that away in a misguided attempt to just keep all of the oil and gas in the ground. Who benefits from this new push to stymie the U.S. LNG infrastructure buildout? Ultimately, it would be the coal industry and Putin. Out of a misguided fear of stranded assets and infrastructure lock-in, some greens believe that turning off U.S. exports will reduce emissions, simple as that. However, America exports LNG to meet real global energy demand, and simply cutting off supplies of gas does not mean that demand disappears; instead, energy importers will be forced to buy dirtier fuels and are likely to reward autocratic suppliers like Russia.

The energy transition is a global and gradual process that cannot be implemented immediately with only good intentions to power it. We have no choice but to build our way through the energy transition with the energy system we have.

There are credible environmental organizations working on pragmatic greenhouse gas reductions from energy supply chains in concert with industry, such as the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), and ambitious policies in the Inflation Reduction Act will allow the Biden administration to push already declining emissions down even further. The real absurdity here lies in an unreviewed working paper using 30-year-old numbers that, in a matter of months, has ascended to seemingly steer national policy at the highest levels of the Biden administration. Our geopolitical allies, the climate, the U.S. economy and the electoral future of the Democrats depend on better policy.

This op-ed was originally published in The Messenger.

Europe’s Second Winter Without Russian Gas: The Role of American Exports

Energy dynamics in Europe have undergone a significant transformation as the European Union continues to navigate the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy shortage. The reliance on Russian gas, which comprised 38% of EU imports in pre-pandemic 2019, has drastically reduced to just 6% through the first nine months of this year. Notably, the United States’ exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) has played a pivotal role in filling this gap, reaching historic highs and making the U.S. the largest LNG exporter globally. With approximately half of U.S. LNG cargoes destined for Europe, America has risen to become the second-largest supplier of gas to Europe, following only Norway.

Today, the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) released a new policy brief titled “Europe’s Second Winter Without Russian Gas: The Role of American LNG Exports,” assessing the implications and successes of the U.S.’ increase in LNG exports to Europe. Report author Elan Sykes, PPI’s Energy Policy Analyst, evaluates the EU’s strategies, including the expansion of LNG import terminals, demand reduction targets, and the accelerated deployment of renewable energy. Sykes finds that while European energy costs remain high and industrial output reduced, the acute crisis of the energy shortage appears to have subsided.

The policy brief sheds light on the United States’ pivotal role in supporting the EU’s energy transition, as well as fostering unified support for Ukraine. The U.S. is well-positioned to serve as a low-methane backstop LNG supplier while complementary clean energy supply chains scale up as rapidly as possible.

“The U.S. is leading this pragmatic and orderly global transition to net zero,” said Elan Sykes. “In the near future, the U.S. should build on this success by continuing to play a backstop role for world energy markets, implement ambitious IRA policies to push down upstream methane leakage, and expand the global coalition of low-methane producer and consumer markets for LNG with stringent and transparent certification metrics.”

Read and download the full report here.

The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) is a catalyst for policy innovation and political reform based in Washington, D.C. Its mission is to create radically pragmatic ideas for moving America beyond ideological and partisan deadlock. Learn more about PPI by visiting progressivepolicy.orgFind an expert at PPI and follow us on Twitter.

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Media Contact: Amelia Fox – afox@ppionline.org

Europe’s Second Winter Without Russian Gas: The Role of American LNG Exports

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Approaching the second winter after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has made real progress in overcoming the severe energy shortage that followed the August 2022 shutdown of the Nord Stream pipelines. Through the first nine months of this year, Russian gas comprised only 6% of EU imports compared to 38% in pre-pandemic 2019.

More than any other supplier, United States exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) have
stepped in to fill the gap: U.S. exports are at all-time historic highs and America is now the single largest LNG exporter in the world, with roughly half of U.S. cargoes going to Europe since the invasion and America rising to become the second-largest supplier of gas to Europe after only Norway.

It is impossible to imagine unified support for Ukraine between the U.S. and EU could have continued as it did without the long-term project of expanding U.S. export capacity and the rapid short-term expansion of import terminals in Europe. The EU paired the rapid expansion of temporary and permanent new LNG import terminals with demand reduction targets, accelerated deployment of renewable energy and electrified heating, and increased coal combustion; though European energy costs remain high and energy-intensive industry has languished, the shortage is no longer an acute crisis. In the near future, the U.S. should build on this success by continuing to play a backstop role for world energy markets, implement ambitious IRA policies to push down upstream methane leakage, and expand the global coalition of low-methane producer and consumer markets for LNG with stringent and transparent certification metrics. The U.S. is leading this pragmatic and orderly global transition to netzero.

Read the full report.

Brown for The Messenger: The Wrong Green Plan Can Mean Climate Disaster

By Neel Brown

There is wisdom in the words of legendary boxer Mike Tyson, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”

The ultra-green activists have been punched in the mouth, so to speak. Their plan to keep all fossil fuels in the ground has been bested by a tough opponent: reality.

As a result, their efforts to limit U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) production and exports in the name of abolishing all fossil fuel use are bringing us closer to a climate disaster.

There is no question that we are in a climate emergency that must be addressed with a determined push for a clean energy transition. That push should be pursued with speed and resolve — but without losing sight of the goal, which is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This is vital to the health and prosperity of current and future generations.

Read more in Medium.

Bledsoe for The Messenger: Hamas-Israel War Must Not Prevent Progress at COP 28 Climate Talks

By Paul Bledsoe

The next United Nations climate change conference, COP28 , is scheduled to begin at the end of November in Dubai. Beyond the challenges of getting the world to agree on difficult climate issues, progress may be imperiled by the cloud of war between Hamas and Israel, and also by the choice of the United Arab Emirates as the host country.

The Middle East’s tangled politics and tortured alliances will make gaining unanimity of action on critical climate issues that much harder. Credible analysis indicates that Iran’s long-time support for Hamas, and claims that it helped plan the vicious attack on Israel, had a strategic objective of preventing incipient attempts to renew diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also find themselves on opposite sides in this crisis, as Qatar has maintained close relations with Hamas for years. That, too, could further complicate efforts to get major oil and gas states aligned.

Yet, hope remains that the conference-hosting UAE — despite deriving nearly one-third of its GDP from oil and gas revenue — can leverage its relationships with other major state-owned energy producers to gain agreements to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, especially of that super-climate-pollutant, methane. Fully 75% of all carbon dioxide and methane emissions from the oil and gas industry come from state-owned companies. Thus, climate protection cannot be achieved without dramatically reducing emissions from the world’s petro-states.

Read more.

This story was originally published in The Messenger on October 18, 2023.

Bledsoe for The Messenger: Biden, Not Trump, Is Right on the Autoworkers’ Strike and Electric Vehicles

By Paul Bledsoe

Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican Party, seemingly devoid of original policy ideas themselves, have tried to make Joe Biden’s advocacy of incentives for U.S. production of electric vehicles (EVs) a campaign issue in the midst of the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike over higher pay and improved benefits. But the truth is that President Biden’s efforts to deliver large EV incentives for American car buyers and U.S. automakers are our best hope so far for the U.S. to outcompete China in the domestic and global auto market and to save American jobs.

It is the automakers themselves and, increasingly, consumers who are switching to EVs, for the obvious reason that EVs are already much cheaper to operate than gasoline-power cars, and very soon, they are expected to be far cheaper to manufacture and purchase than gasoline vehicles. EVs are the future of the auto industry, and Biden is making sure America will be ready for the decades ahead.

Read more.

This story was originally published in the Messenger on October 3, 2023.